Sunday, July 31, 2022

Apple Should Prepare to Leave China (There Is Still Time To Execute Such A Plan)

At first glance, you might think that the title of this article is a clickbait considering that China is the second biggest economy in the world and Western countries have made tens if not hundreds of billions from Chinese consumers. However, this access to the Chinese market really can end overnight - either at the whim of the totalitarian government in Beijing because perceived slight by the company or another zero-COVID lockdown as the rest of the world adjust to living with the pandemic.

Like any government or organization that has grown to a size that is too big for its own good or to be able to be effective, Beijing is no different. However, it is controlled by one man at the top and has only a few individuals who get together to set policies. Control is absolute and dissent is nowhere to be seen on the surface. Mention Tibet or truthfully state that Taiwan is an independent country, you can find your company suddenly under the microscope of the state controlled media and social media that immediately called for banning the company from the company.

While a company like Apple with Tim Cook at the helm has been very good at navigating Chinese politics and kowtowing it its demands, it is inevitable that Apple will have to choose how far it will go to placate the Chinese Community Party. 

To be fair, China also needs Apple. Without Apple and other Western tech companies, China's economic growth and is technical advances would be nowhere near where it is today. The benefits to all parties cannot be denied. The hope, from the perspective of the West, is that as China went from a third rate economy to one that everyone knows that eventually become the largest in the world, it would also open up its society and some form of democracy would thrive as a result. Well, that did not quite happen. If anything, China has become more closed off and other Western governments are taking cues from it.

A day of reckoning is coming. Whether this could be the result of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan or something else down the line in the South China Sea. The question for Apple, other companies, and the West is that before any flashpoint, do companies like Apple time left to decouple from China as it is no longer the low hanging fruit that it is?

Even before the supply chain disruption based by COVID and China's zero-COVID policy, Apple with its partners has begun to trying to ship manufacturing away from China for years. And just as it has taken decades for Apple to develop its supply chain in China, it may take just as long for Apple to do the same elsewhere so that if anything happens in China that is worse than what Apple experience with the COVID disruption, the effect would be mitigated.

If there is going to be pain beyond the ones caused by COVID, that will slowly go away as Apple's supply chain in India, Brazil, Vietnam, and even the US matures.

The more important question is Apple's access to the Chinese market and what happens if Apple loses it completely one day. It can happen over time as Chinese nationalist sentiments become even more extreme than it is today and kick out Western companies or make unreasonable demands that even Apple cannot accept. This is the most likely scenario for Apple to leave. War between China and the United States is another. 

For Apple, it makes sense to spend additional resources and pay more attention to markets outside of China. Doing this would make sense for any company. However, it is even more important for Apple because China has been its profit and revenue growth engine for more than a decade. To replace that is paramount for Apple. 

Apple's total revenue in 2021 was $365.8 billion. China came in at $68.3 billion. It is probably going to be the same for 2022 given the economic and political challenges. It is unlikely that 2023 and the foreseeable years will be any different. Apple's growth will have to come in forms of new products and services and working harder in regions where I think it is underperforming. 

The key question is what to do if that $70 billion a year from China suddenly disappear. While Apple or anyone else for that matter will not publicly suggest that will happen out of fear of angering China, it has to be something that keeps Tim Cook up at night. How do you replace 20% of your revenue?

You cannot do that just like that. However, in the short term, Apple will try to diminish the size of that China's contribution to its bottomline.

  • Double down growing the size of its services revenue. Apple services generated nearly $20 billion in the latest quarter and it will hit $100 billion annually. Getting it to $150 billion if service revenues continue to grow at a steady pace will help a lot. Wall Street seems to suggest that China will stagnate in the coming years. 
  • New products. Apple Watch has done well and as Apple's focus on health for the wearables continue to improve the watch, greater number of upgrades and new users will pick it up. New products will still be needed. Augmented reality is going to be big bet for Apple. 
  • While promising, Apple's future may well be its auto ambition. We have not seen a new car from Apple or anything like that but Apple's latest CarPlay "play" from its World Wide Developer Conference this June has folks very excited. No one knows for sure if Apple is making any money from auto makers that have incorporated CarPlay into their vehicles. Some suggests that Apple charges manufacturer no cost to incorporate CarPlay. If that is the case, Apple is using it as a halo effect for its other products and services. Apple will eventually release its own car. That alone can generate tens of billions in additional revenue that alone rivals the size of Apple's China revenue. The global vehicle revenue is projected to be nearly $4 trillion. Telsa's 2021 revenue is $54 billion. Volkswagen and Toyota generated $254 billion and $250 billion respectively. Ford came in at $127 billion and GM generated $123 billion. If Apple takes only 1% of the global auto market, that means $40 billion of additional revenue. A more apt comparison for Apple is Porsche which is doing quite well with only $35 billion in 2021.
Those points above is a roadmap that many know about given the number of articles about services, augment reality, and car plans from industry analysts, Apple focused news sites, and Apple itself. There is one other area that Apple can spend more energy on. 

With a GDP greater than even the United States, Apple seems to be underperform in Europe. And Asia is more than just China. And I have yet to hear anything about Apple's business plan for Africa. Putting all of this together, Apple can continue to grow regardless what happens in China.

And let's face it - doing business with China means losing a bit of yourself. I don't want to quite cross the line and suggest it is like selling your soul to the devil but it is close. You cannot ignore the human rights violations indefinitely for both Chinese citizens and minority groups like the Tibetans and Uighurs. Apple executives and boardrooms in other companies will one day have to decide of doing business in China under the current condition which will worsen in years to come is worth it. If they are asking themselves this question now, it's time to prepare to go on without China.




Friday, April 1, 2022

Apple’s Project Breakout Will Enhance User Experience For Products and Services With Its Own Financial Services

Apple’s newest push into a non-tech market is finance and this one could be the biggest ever than Apple’s move into mobile market. According to sources, Project “Breakout” is Apple’s attempt to bring more financial tools and services to its users. There are a lot of speculations as to what it can mean but looking at how and where Apple can dive into, let’s just right to it and ask: Is Apple Bank is coming to an iPhone near you?


The news came from Bloomberg. However, I feel Bloomberg should have done a deeper dive into this information from its sources at Apple or at least ask for clarity on the project. Immediately after the news came out, some fintech stocks dropped. However, I wonder if they should have been the ones to worry about Apple’s encroachment into the financial services market.

Any time Apple moves into a new market, in this case, the financial services market, it takes years for Apple’s impact to be felt. And it is never felt in a jolt at felt throughout the market. It’s more of a roll and before you know it, it’s a big, big wave.


Apple Pay was first introduced 7 years ago in October of 2014. It has taken that long for mobile payment to be ubiquitously accepted. There was a time when many were not sure Apple Pay would have a chance. Even now, Apple Pay is not accepted at the largest retailer in the world, Walmart, and as most gas stations I go to (I rather use Apple Pay than use my card because potential for skimming devices). 

In these seven years, there has not be a major change to Apple Pay or new services from Apple except its expanded use with some public transposition systems. 

So, how big of an impact will Breakout be? We just have to wait and see. So far, there is no talk about banking. The likely services could be related to the news about hardware subscription that Apple may push out in the near future. And by near future, in the next year or two. And with Apple, it’s never guaranteed that it’s coming until Apple announces it publicly.

Here are the potential services from Breakout:
  • Increase Apple Pay. Recently, Apple unveiled Tap to Pay on the iPhone allowing merchants to accept payments. Apple has opened this up to other payment systems. It’s a good move since the government is likely going to be watching this closely for anti-trust and monopolistic practices.
  • Apple users can already buy Apple hardware in installments so I’m very curious what value Apple’s hardware subscription will really bring to users. However, Apple could be looking to finance the subscription with its bazillion dollars in the bank. I’m not a financial person so I don’t know how Apple will benefit financially. It will be “selling” hardware and likely bundle services along with the subscription fee. I watched a CNBC segment about this when this was announced and Wall Street seems to like it a lot since it means Apple will have a predictable revenue stream on an annual basis and the dependence on iPhone upgrade cycles will reduce market anxiety. Despite having a market capitalization of nearly three trillion dollars, there those who still think Apple will be bankrupt for some weird reasons. 
  • The idea that Apple is looking to bring financial services in-house as Bloomberg suggests instead of working out another bank or partner means that Apple is comfortable with disrupting the financial market. It could be a big deal over time. Instead of working with a financing company, Apple will handle everything relating to the subscription - credit checks, lending (see below what else Apple can lend to), fraud and risk analysis, and, of course, payments.
  • Apple credit card could be just the next step. Bloomberg has made it clear that current deals and partnerships will continue. Consider Apple Card. Apple works with Goldman Sachs. This is just in the United States. What about the rest of the world? Could Apple Pay and new financial functions serve as Apple’s version of the credit card everywhere else in the world? 
  • Apple Cash - I currently have less than $50 in my Apple Cash. I really have no idea where that money is sitting other than that it’s there on my iPhone. Like Apple Card, this is only available in the US. Consider possible international expansions. Wow.
  • How about banking? Could Breakout involve retail banking? Savings account? CD? Issue debts to Apple users? I’m not hopeful about this. It’s possible but if Apple does get into banking, it will not feel like traditional banking we currently know it as.
  • Lending - Apple will mostly allow lending limited to Apple products - iPhones, iPads, Macs, and sales from the Apple Store. Wait, one more thing: Apple Financing for Apple’s own car. And recently, Tesla launched a Tesla subscription. Prior to Breakout, Apple would work with a partner to finance purchase of its hardware. In a couple of years, lending from Apple will be much more mature. And when Apple’s car does hit the market, it will be ready to finance it all on its own.
I’m not suggesting at all that Apple will become your bank. I honestly don’t know if Apple is interested in doing that as we know it. Can you imagine Siri as your bank teller? No way! Siri still has no idea what I am asking it. However, when it comes to getting users to buy or subscribe to its products and services, it makes sense for Apple to control everything from end to end, even when Apple starts sell a car.

So, I think it’s too premature for fintech, Wall Street, and local banks to start packing it in. The markets as those are too low and Apple is not quite ready to scrape the bottom of the barrel for changes to increase its profits. Apple wants to augment its garden, nothing more.

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Deglobalization And Emergence of Regional Blocks May Increase Cryto Adoption (Especially Those Who Are Anti-West)

Source: CNBC.

Russian aggression and invasion of Ukraine has brought a realignment of global affairs and changed the normal flows of political and economic activities around the world. As Putin's brutal Urainian war enters a second month with heavy Russian losses, sanctions on Russia has highlighted just how fragile globalization has been and it takes only one despotic moron to ruin it for everyone. It is as if an ongoing pandemic was not enough. 

With the Russian economy cut off from foreign capital and major currencies, I had wondered if Putin will look to the black markets and even the gray areas of global trade to blunt the catastrophic effects of Western and allied sanctions on his diminishing economy. And it looks like crypto could offer him a limited lifeline.

It is clear that some nations are attempting to reap the benefits of the previous economic relationships and some are trying to claim neutrality to avoid angering Putin and continue to buy cheap oil and gas from him. Nations like India, Israel, and Turkey quickly comes to mind. In fact, it is likely that Asian nations could continue to fund Putin's war and keep him afloat.

It has become clear to me that the West particularly the United States, will exert pressure on nations to enter its camp. It may work with some over time but nations like India and Israel, semi-allies at times when their national issues align with those of the United States continue to have a pass. For Israel, it's its security while with India, it is China's growing willingness to flex its political and military powers and exert its will on others. But who can blame them? We do the same here.

I believe blocks of nations will be created and overlap with some nations participating in more than one depending on their own interests. Most of them will be only economic in nature. But if some blocks be more rigid and globilization fractures further, cryptocurrencies may the link that binds these blocks together. 

Just as Russia is desperately trying to find ways to get around sanctions, these blocks will trying find ways around using the major currencies. Imagine oil, minerals, and precious metals listed on futures exchanges not against the dollar but Bitcoin or Ethereum. Further more, some blocks may decide to collectively adopt a single or basket of cryptocurrencies as their own means of trade among each other.

This is not going to good or bad for the West but it could definitely allow some unfriendly governments to escape sanctions. What this means for the global economy is difficult to say. Being an optimist, I hope that it will allow some parity between the rich and poor in these blocks if there is a stable means of trade and allow the masses a greater voice in their own governments. Isn't that what some supporters of crypto are hoping for?

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Android Tablet Is Dying, All Hail The Chromebook (and iPads If You Really Need The Tablet Form)

I'll get right to the point - get an iPad. And if you really adamant about staying in the Google ecosystem, then get the apps you need on the App Store because most of all the Google apps you need are there. But if you really insist, likely because you detest Apple so much or you have spend a lot of money on Android apps, then perhaps a Chromebook is the best choice.

The last Android tablets I own was the Nexus 7, a wonderful tablet, and then when Google stopped selling their own branded tablets, I with an Asus tablet that looks similar to the Nexus 7. Since then, I've stopped dabbling with Android tablets and decided to just stick with an iPad mini.

Now, the suggest I made above is not one I made lightly. Here is a bit of how I came around to the Chromebook as a better option than an Android tablet. First, I am not a fan of Chinese branded tablets. I just non-Chinese ones but there are just not a lot of them. Samsung tablets are awesome when it comes to hardware, it's top notch. In some ways, they're better than Apple's iPads. However, the software...meh right? Google has done a lot to improve the tablet experience on Android but Apple is light years ahead. At this point, I'm not sure Google will be able to catch up for these reasons - Google is all over the place with it comes to Android tablets and I'm just not sure Google is committed to the tablet as I think they should be. If anything, I feel like Google is just doing it to satisfy Android fans until it's ChromeOS experience with tablet features and UI improve enough to keep them from going over to the iPad side.

Now, it seems like with Android 12L, Google is finally taking tablets more seriously. If Google releases a Pixel tablet, then I'll bite. Maybe. But for now, I believe the ChromeOS experience if further along and has more to offer than Android for mobile users - consumer and business both. 

I had seriously considered the HP's X2 detachable Chromebook when it went on sale at Best Buy last year for around $400, a great deal from the $600 price point. I was very close but I think given this is HP's very first decent try with a detachable, I think they'll do better the next time around. I told myself I would get the next update as a reward if I become better as coding.

And speaking of coding, it would be what I want a Chromebook for. I am on a very old 12" MacBook and I need an upgrade eventually. I'm not took keen on carrying around a $4000 machine all the time so a Chromebook for coding Python, SQL, and doing Web stuff would be perfect.

However, for day to day stuff like writing, reading, and gaming, I am still on my iPad mini. In fact, my wife who is an Android fan recently got an iPad mini herself because there simply was nothing on the Android side where she could get a similar experience. It surprised the heck out of me. I threw Kindle tablets at her. I took her to stores to show her shiny Samsung tablets. But she ended with the iPad.

She did consider the X2 but it was not as sale at the time. And there are no updated Pixel tablets from Google to choose from.

Look, as a regular consumer much like everyone else, competition in the market place is great. I feel Apple does not feel any heat from other tablet makers even though it does not dominate the market. I feel Apple is making different models of the iPad compete against each other and eventually, it might mean iPads will compete with the MacBooks directly. 

When that happens, what does that mean for Android tablets then? I think Chromebook experience is further along and feel more natural to Google. It's Linux and Chrome is more Google's game. And this is why I would recommend Chromebooks that can running Android apps than Android tablets themselves.

Saturday, March 26, 2022

MacOS Can Boot From A M1 iPad, Only if Apple Makes It So

 "Make it so," Captain Jean-Luc Picard of the Federation starship, the USS Enterprise, commanded in his familiar British accent even though he's French because, I did not know this, that by the 24th Century, French was became an obscure language.

My hope is that Picard can just as easily command the USS Cupertino to get their engineering team finally allow MacOS work on any iPad with the M1 chips and beyond because it makes sense, it is doable, it is in high demand, and it will make Apple a lot of money. 

One reason why I do not think Apple is ready for MacOS to run on an iPad is the experience - there are some UI issues that Apple needs to work out for touch interface. Of course, like most Mac users and increasingly iPad users as well, we have been using our iPad with a keyboard and mouse. 

I have used Windows 10 and 11 on a HP laptop for work and half the time, I do not even remember that the screen has touch features. And I hesitate to use it because of smudges and it was not very intuitive. If Apple is trying to come up with a touch scheme that is different from the iPad experience but will work better with MacOS, I am all for it. 

You know the Apple elitists. If you do not satisfy them, they can be a loud minority. I'm not saying Apple cares at all what they think. Apple will do it own thing. But the media may help amplify those voices. So, Apple will need to make the MacOS on the iPad experience seamless. Not everyone will use a keyboard and mouse with it. 

In the photo above, I am running MacOS in my 2018 iPad mini through a remote access app. And for short durations, it is fine. I have tried it on an iPad Pro with 13" and it works better. I use it with a keyboard and mouse. There is a touch element to the app for me to use MacOS with and it works just fine in a pinch but it is no where nearly as good as using a mouse. So, Apple, if you eventually allow MacOS or a version of it to run on the iPad, I am fine if you only allow physical keyboard and mouse to use it if you have not already figured out a new touch interface that works just as well. 

Right now, I am writing this post (including this sentence) using the MacBook keyboard via Universal Control on MacOS Monterey. 

The other issue is battery life. All iPad Variants of the iPad is limited to ten hours of use. As far as I can recall, Apple has limited iPad battery life since the original iPad to 10 hours of use. Right now, there are MacBooks that have 50% to 100% the battery life of the iPad. 

Despite the current perceived limitations of running MacOS on an iPad, there are million of users who would not mind and want to be able to do more with this revolutionary device. My iPad is with me nearly 100% of the time. And if I can use it in ways that I do on the MacBook, I would love it.

I'll get into some advantages for Apple why iPads should be able to run MacOS. For now, I think it is a matter of when Apple "makes it so" or see iPadOS evolve enough to resemble the MacOS and have similar experience. 

Friday, March 25, 2022

Twitter Is Where the Second Front of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Is and Pro-Kyiv Tweets Are Winning

I've been doing on Twitter to get as much updated information on the illegal, illogical, and ill-conceived Russian invasion of Ukraine. It isn't easy but looking through hundreds of tweets at a time, I start to get a general idea of how things are going for the brave Ukrainians and how the West is trying to help and how that help is helping to turn the table on the invaders. Through these tweets, you have to work your way through a lot of misinformation - both pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian ones. It felt a little gross figuratively. However, you get the sense that this is a social media war that the supporters of Ukrainians  are winning and anti-Putin tweets just do not have the muscles it did a month or so ago. I'll explain why.

During Desert Storm, I could not get enough of the 24-hour cable news update on how the US and allied forces (including forces who are generally considered anti-West) storm out of Saudi Arabia to liberate Kuwait and then later in 2003 when the US (with less allies) invaded all of Iraq to depose of Saddam Hussein's regime and in search of weapons of mass destruction. 

All that was before social media like Twitter. There was the Internet for the second Iraq war in 2003 but this is nothing like what it is today with the war in Ukraine. I came away with a couple of observations.
  • Twitter is very useful if you use it in a limited set of ways. During my searches for information about the war, I have learned a thing or two about urban resistance. Anyone who is laughing at me obviously have never seen Red Dawn. The original one of course.
  • Twitter is filled with garbage and you can either let it in or keep it out. It is easy to do that. I've searched keywords about the war and when you do that, it seems like Twitter just lets everything in. The good, the bad, facts, made-up stuff (I am not going to say "made up facts"), information, and misinformation. But you can learn to filter things out - when something that seems a little too good to be true, it is. 
    • For instance, during the first week of the war, there was supposed an Ukrainian ace who downed six Russian fighter jets/bombers. It was not true. I am sure it did wonders for pro-democracy and the brave Ukrainian defenders and boosted morale but again, it was not true. It might have been based on a pop gun Ukrainian pilot who did take out a couple of Russian fighters but it was not six. 
  • Twitter was blocked by Russia and Twitter started blocking some Russian government accounts. I'm guessing that they also blocked a lot of bots (makes you wonder why Twitter did not do it before) and accounts in Russia that spread misinformation. This is why you get a few bad attempts by some who try to spread Putin's propaganda. There are accounts that are out there doing that but you can tell because when the bad spellings, grammars, and incoherent sentences are put together, the pro-Russian tweets merely repeats what is coming out of Moscow.
  • Also interesting is that now Twitter is limiting access from Russia, the trolls that generally spread other misinformation and conspiracy theories are not as loud as before. Now, you get a lot of accounts from China and the Middle East who generally support the Russian invasion. 
  • MAGA tweets are not as pro-Putin as their leader, Donald Trump when it comes to the war. Most are quiet about the war or blame the current administration for not doing enough to help the Ukrainians - like sending in planes/tanks or implementing a no-fly zone. Very vocal about the Hunter Biden laptop though. But MAGA tweets seem to be down. At least for me.
  • In Ukraine, the Russian army probably have access to social media that their fellow Russians do not have access to. I wonder what they are seeing on Twitter, news that are no longer banned, and on other social media. I imagine it cannot be a good - their advances have stalled, pictures of Russian equipments destroyed or commandeered by Ukrainian farmers, the low morale being reported in the media, and the six or so generals/colonels who have died for the Motherland. These are kids who did not want to be there, who were lied to, and wanted to go home.
Like I said above - if you use social media in the right way, there are benefits. There is a danger of being too immersed into something and locking one's beliefs without trying to consider other sides and social media lets you do that. Some social media like Facebook even encourages that. Twitter is far from perfect but it is no where nearly as bad as Facebook. Too much of Twitter can be bad too.

For updates like what I was looking for on Twitter, it works. You have to be smart about it. For the Ukrainian war, this is the first war I can think of that is being fought on battlefield front as well as the social media front. 

Look, I'm not anti-Russia. I'm pro-people and definitely anti-bullies, anti-Putin, anti-Xi, and anti-despots (bonafide ones or wannabe ones, you know who I am talking about). Nor am I anti-Chinese. I just don't like the policies of these governments - wars (okay, we had a couple of we started and I'm not for them), great firewalls, and taking away people's freedoms in general. 


Wednesday, March 23, 2022

The Case for Why Apple, Fisker Or Anyone Else Can Thrive In The EV Market

Apple has the formula down for entering a market and thrive. It did it with the iMac/iBook, iPod, iPhone, iPad, EarPods, Apple Watch, and services and it can continue to do that as the giant California company continues to expand into other markets. In looking at how Tesla and other auto companies are doing in the EV market, I came to the conclusion that Apple or anyone else who follow Apple’s formula for getting a product to the market can hope to do well and thrive.

I’m a Fisker Ocean fan and I have a reservation for an Ocean. It’s a risk I know but given the history of the company and its founder, Henrik Fisker, I think Fisker has the making of an Apple-like story in the auto industry. But I also believe that if Apple ever does enter the market, it has the ability to duplicate the success it has found in the computing and mobile markets.

This all started when I started looking at the financial numbers from Tesla to see if there is any justification for Fisker’s value to increase because during an excited chat with a friend who is an even bigger Fisker fan than I am, I bought a fews shares and have accumulated about 100 shares over the last year. In my wildest dream, I am hope those shares will pay for my Ocean. I have since concluded it’s not going to happen. Oh well…

But I got to thinking about how Fisker, Lucid, or even a number of new EV entrants can survive much less thrive in a market where Tesla is the giga (because it has giga factories) gorilla in the room and where traditional auto makers have finally woken up to the changing market and are about to release dozens of their own EV models. 

Well, Fisker can thrive in the long term. Apple certainly can. Any of these new electric vehicle makers can. Okay, it’s a lot harder than just stipulating what I think but really, all of these companies can. You only have to look at the PC and smartphone markets to see what I have concluded is plausible. 

Take the PC market. In the 1970s, there were many companies that came out with their own computers including Apple. Later in the 1980s, Apple pivoted with the Mac while the PC market continued with DOS for a while until Windows came up and crushed Apple in the 90s.

Meanwhile, the PC landscape was thriving with dozens of clones of the IBM Personal Computer all running DOS and later Windows. I recall seeing tons of ads in newspapers and magazines from companies that no longer exist while HP, Compaq, Dell, and IBM sort of came through. And remember how Sony, Toshiba, and other Japanese electronic companies also go into the games. 

It seemed like every week, there were new PC makers. Of course, that also mean the landscape was littered with corpses of computer companies that did not make it. In a way, it was a race to the bottom in terms of prices and the margins became too low for these companies to stay in business.

This may sound like it is going against my assertion that any EV company can thrive in the market. Let me continue. Remember how Apple almost went bankrupt? But now it’s the biggest public company in the world? Right, Apple was able to resurrect its fortune in the 2000s and beyond because it stuck to a formula that is so simple that anyone can emulate. It’s came out with a top notch product in a market that already has many players. And despite facing intense competition and sometimes priced higher than its competitors, Apple products continue to sell and demand for it  has only increased over the years. Apple has managed to differentiate itself from the rest of the market. In some respects, one can argue that it redefined the market and forced competitors to play in its terms. It did that with the original iPod and it has changed the mobile market dominated by Blackberry. Where is Blackberry these days, by the way?

It’s now doing that in the PC market by designing and incorporating the Macs with its own chips. Now, other PC and chip makers are scrambling to duplicates Apple’s game plan. If someone else can do it and their PC or laptop has the same appeal as the Macs, they stand to gain a lot.

The only pitfall in all this? Well, Apple’s method has a flaw - it has to keep innovating. If it stops innovating, it will die. Just like a shark - if it stops swimming, it will sink (yeah, I googled to make sure it’s true - however, not all sharks will die if it sinks because some can still breath).

So, not a flaw for Apple because I just do not see it stop innovating at all. So, Apple should do fine. And if Apple does enter the market with its own electric car, it stands a good chance of carving a piece of the overall auto market for itself. Now, it cannot release a Tesla clone. If it does, who is going to buy it? And you can get any Apple car will cost a pretty penny. Won’t be cheap. So, why pay extra for a Tesla clone simply because its behind Apple ecosystem? I’m afraid it will not be enough. So, Apple will need to bring more to the game.

And it means Fisker will have to as well. So far, I’m encouraged by what I am seeing despite some features like the California Mode being more of a gimmick than a must need feature or an “oh wow, I didn’t know I needed this until Fisker showed me”. I’m glad Fisker is not trying to up sell the California Mode since I think other EV makers can duplicate or have similar features via a software update on their cars.

So, there are innovations and then there are gimmicks. These EV companies have to look at what they can offer the market that sets themselves apart.

And speaking Fisker. This is not the original company Henrik Fisker started. Prior to Fisker Inc., there was Fisker Automotive. Because you probably have not heard of it, your guess that it did not do well would be correct. However, Henrik Fisker is back and the Ocean and the upcoming Pear are looking strong. The difference between Fisker now and previous efforts by Henrik Fisker is the focus on innovation and bring something new to the market. Personally, it sounds a lot like Apple’s own story which is why I think Fisker will do really well this time around.

Given the rapid pace of how markets today evolve, any one of these car makers can become the next Tesla. Maybe not a trillion-dollar company like Tesla because the market can support a lot of companies that are worth tens of billions, each with their own segment of the market, drivers, and fans.

These EV companies do not need to go bankrupt, go wondering in the woods for a few years, and then come put with something different. They can look at these other companies that have had setbacks and see how they’ve reinvented themselves and what is it about these companies and their products that are so sought after.


Tuesday, January 11, 2022

32 Hours and 4-Day Work Week - It Is Happening

 I’m no labor expert beyond that I am a drone like most everyone else. Working from anywhere is no longer a phenomenon due to the pandemic. A great number of folks will not be returning to the office. With that said and one with, here is one that will excite almost everyone - 4-day work weeks or as I like to say, three day weekends! Oh, and some might call it 32 hours work week, whether that is 7 hours a day or actually just 4-day work week depends on the company, I guess.

So, I’m going to start tracking articles as I come across them - stories about who is implementing the 4-day work week, where it is happening, and what government regulations might be involved.

Here is the first one:

D'Youville College in Buffalo, New York will trial a 32-hour work week for six months. And it is a 4-day work week. It is a pilot program that limited to certain administrative staff. A good beginning. (Inside Higher Ed, Business Insider) 1/11/2022

 The world is changing and we are witness a huge market force at work. 

Physical Hubs For Tech Or Businesses Will Become Less Important and More for Cities As Bragging Rights

 Source: Bloomberg.

I’ve been seeing this for years. In Los Angeles or more regionally, Southern California, sits Hollywood. For more than 100 years, it is the entertainment capital of the world. Here sit many iconic Hollywood studios that have entertained the globe for decades. As the cost of filming in Los Angeles skyrocketed, other cities like Vancouver, Atlanta, and other regions around the world becomes more attractive. I have thought about how Hollywood can still be called “Hollywood” when it is really spread around the world. 

This is the same situation for other capitals or hubs of other industries. New York, London, Hong Kong, and a couple of others places bankers and investors go to make deals happen. Even before the on going Covid-19 pandemic that is more than two years old now, technology has made physical presence not as important as it once was. Prior to teleconferencing, telephone calls and emails had played a big part in deal making.

Hubs will not go way but there are things that are happening and will continue to trend that will forever change how we work. In major cities like San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles where there is a high density of population due to many jobs that are created by their various industries, people automatically flock to them for employment. That is simply put but true. And the cost of living in these areas have risen dramatically for decades. Each year, lists of the most expensive cities to live in or the least affordable cities will have these three cities listed. And in 2021 with the skyrocketing inflation, Los Angeles is hitting my pocket book like a one-two punch and a couple of kicks to my stomach. That’s how bad it is.

If I could move out and still keep my job and work at home full-time, even in neighboring counties where housing is cheaper, I would seriously consider it. Even neighboring states where I can buy a house that is three to four times bigger than my current place for the same price. I’d settle for the same size that is much cheaper. I don’t need a big place.

And guess what? That is exactly what is happening for thousands of workers who can work away from Silcon Valley or Wall Street. Nodes of these industries are popping up all over the country, the world in fact, that due to costs, flexibility from social and technological changes, and how we perceive work in general. 

If we could be a fly on the walls of boardrooms all over the world, we would probably not hear a lot of talk about building multibillion headquarters like the one Apple built in Cupertino. What use is such an expensive modern edifice if many of those workers are happily and quite productively working in their PJ at home or a mountain cabin they rented for a week on AirBNB?

Sure, CEO and the executives of major corporations are not expected to work from their home. They have to go to an office. So, corporate headquarters will continue to exist and employ disproportionately larger number of employees. Not everyone will want to work at home or have the option to work remotely. Technicians, researchers, and workers who needs physical machines to do their jobs quickly time to mind as employees who need places to work in. 

Companies are quickly realizing this and will adapt as quickly as they can. Failure to keep up can mean loss of employees, revenues, and productivity. As a manager, the most important things to me will be my people and their ability to do their jobs. What do I care if they work the equivalent of a week’s work in 3-4 days when it is finished on time. One might be one office away from me while another is chilling in the Bahama and still able to do the work I expect of him or her. 

The Bloomberg article linked above does not go into these examples and the train of thoughts I’ve gone into but it is what has lead me to write about it here. One additional thought that I have had is how this will change the relationship between employer and employee. I work for an old-school employers who care about this employees. I cannot say that is the same for many of my friends who work in other companies or agencies. They are a means to an end and employees, judging by the large number who have either change jobs or quit altogether, demonstrates that employees are treating employers the same.

And this will quicken the diminishment of business or technological hubs around the world, not just New York or San Francisco. This is a tide that will not reverse even after the pandemic is over. Too many of us have had the taste of working from anywhere while remaining productive, oh, and happier as well. Also expect regulations and others like market forces to follow suit.

In Los Angeles, Hollywood will always be here. But movies and TV shows will be made elsewhere but we will still have the bragging rights.




Saturday, December 4, 2021

Social: Become A YouTuber or An Astronaut When You Grow Up

 Source: CNBC

Most children in the United States want a career as a YouTuber than other worthwhile professions. This this survey from Legos, professions in science has taken a backseat. In it unclear what options were made available to the children in the survey but what is clear is the shift in focus from the sciences to social media. I first across this survey in a podcast I was listening to a couple of days and going out consistent to what I see out there in the real world and on the Web. as a joke, I thought to myself that the best solution might be for the child to combine both. After thinking more about it, maybe that isn’t such a bad idea.  

Even at my ripe old middle age, if given the opportunity to go into space out or, even better,  a ride on Space X’s effort to build a city on Mars, I would take it before a heart beat is up. As a part of trying to new things each week and trying to push my physical strength, endurance, and health in general, I have been focusing on what I need in my mind and where my body needs to be at if given a chance to go into space or help man one of humanity’s first space outposts that allow civilians. 

After reading this CNBC article about the survey and my thought above about social media and becoming an astronaut, maybe I should give this a try - using YouTube or a podcast to talk about becoming an astronaut and trying to get out into space.

After all, we have people who have a professional day jobs and blog or put out a couple of podcasts a week. They talk or write about their work but other subjects of interest to them. For most of the podcasts I follow, most of the hosts still have day jobs that are means to what they do at nights and weeks - interesting in technology, science, gaming, and general news. I do not think the participants in a role playing podcast do what they full time. I doubt the podcast makes enough to supplement their incomes. 

Perhaps with today’s educational system, there needs to be a managed social component. 

Friday, December 3, 2021

Mobile Tip: Texting Myself Has Helped Me With Organization and Remember Quick Thoughts

Do you talk to yourself sometimes? I do. I talk to myself sometimes. Perhaps, I should talk to myself more often. The best way to do this in the mobile world is through texting yourself. That’s what I do on my iPhone with Messages. It could probably be done with any other app you choose to use. And it has been a great help in helping me keep track of some things while allow me to quickly post thoughts that I don’t want to forget the moment I walk into the house or out the the shower.

In essence, my messaging app has become my default personal and private (as much as I can keep it that way) feed for my daily life. 

I have included locations that I’ve been to that I want to revisit, where I parked my car, and where I want to visit for the first time.

I have also posted links to things that I want to check out later that day.

Other things that I have messaged myself includes quotes, ideas, things I want to consider more in-depth or research, and reminders. I get that there are already apps for that but is there anything out there that really pulls all these together. Your default messaging app is likely your most used app on your phone. It’s a no brainer that you would go to that app automatically because you’ve already got the muscle memory to do that.

In fact, this is not a new idea. There are a few other apps that I have used, Signal, Keybase, and GroupMe that allows self-messaging. Beyond that, they all work the same. So I imagine most other apps would allow self-messaging.  On the iPhone, Messages is my default messaging app on the iPhone so it’s what I use.

I’ll give you an example of how well this works for me. I was walking out of a supermarket with my wife when pointed to a sign about how shopping cart wheels lock up when take out of the parking lot. And I have tried it on the past and the wheels did lock up. In a hurry to get to our next stop, I did not have time to look it up right then and there. So I messaged myself to look up how this works when I get home.

Could I have done that using reminder? Yes. Will I look into it? There is a good chance I will do that but also a good chance that I’ll get distracted and this got pushed back. But since it was on messages, I saw it right away when I got home and looked it up later that evening.

Thursday, November 18, 2021

By Arriving 4-5 Years Later, Apple's Fully Autonomous Car Will Try To Leapfrog the Auto Market and Force EV To Compete On Its Terms

  Today, Bloomberg was leaked by someone at Apple that the iPhone maker is still trying to become an iCar maker (I am pretty sure Apple's car will not be called the iCar) by trying to leapfrog competitors in a 4-5 years time frame. The thing about this is that it seems more of a plausible leak of Apple's actual plan rather than those spread by "sources" who in the past really does not seem to know what Apple's plans really are.

While it is typical for Apple car rumors to surface a couple of of times a year to give the stock a jolt upward, it is also typical for rumors of trouble from Asian sources that Apple cut iPhone production in the January quarter to drive the Apple's stock price down, what makes this leak more news worthy is that it seems to be what I think about how Apple will engineer and release a car. 

Apple is going to where no car company has gone before - a fully autonomous vehicle that require no direct control from a driver. If true, it will achieve something Tesla is coming close to do but not close enough. It will truly be revolutionary. If you think about it, despite the advances in build material, engineering, and design, the automobile has not really changed much at all.

Now, Apple will not be interested in a Tesla killer. It will not try to muscle in on the car market with another "me, too" vehicle. Unless Apple can bring something to the market that has more to offer than what is already out there, Apple will not do it. This is why Apple's car project, aka Project Titan, has been around for years not without anything to show for it. 

Sure, Apple can design an awesome looking car and complete with Tesla, Mercedes, BMW, and probably Lucid, the car that Apple seemed to have been rumored to release did not seem to offer anything new. What made today's Bloomberg article about Apple's car more plausible is this - no steering wheels or pedals. Now, that just seem crazy, right? But for an intelligent car that can safely navigate Los Angeles traffic, it would have to be truly revolutionary and do something no other car is capable of.

I'm old school about my car so I cannot imagine ever buying a car that I do not have control over. But wait a minute. Steering wheels and gas/break pedals have been around since the Model T and nothing has changed. It's likely that if the Bloomberg article is true, it means that Apple has indeed come up with a way, maybe better or not, for passengers to navigate the Apple car on the road without the need for a steering wheel or pedals.

Impossible? Well, isn't SpaceX's Dragon capsule sending astronauts into space using iPads in space? Suppose Apple has found a way for iPhone or iPad to allow passengers in the Apple car to navigate traffic to get the intended destination.

There is a caveat here: Apple could be blow smoke screens with this leak to Bloomberg and make its competitors waste resources on something Apple itself is not working on or it not actually going to delivery in 2025 as the leak suggests. From a strategic sense, someone at Apple may believe this leak works for Apple. I would not want to venture a guess as to what that advantage is.

Why do I think that? Well, no steering wheels and pedals. Completely no human operators whatsoever. Perhaps Apple is rethinking the whole idea of transportation. What they are coming up with isn't a car at all but a whole new type of vehicle that is truly autonomous and controlled by an iPhone or iPad. Yes, such a car still need some kind of input from the passengers. And if there is more than one passenger and with multiple destinations, the Apple car will find a the best and safest way to get passengers to their destinations.

Apple will be completing with the EV companies as well as traditional car companies that are trying to evolve into EV companies. Apple is not going to compete against them. These companies are very good at what they do and are entrenched. Maybe Apple might succeed in a minor manner with a regular EV car running of version of iOS. But it means it will be competing on someone else's terms. That is not how Apple has competed in the smartphone market or the watch market. It will bring something truly revolutionary or it will not. 

Friday, October 15, 2021

LG Foldable Glass Is A Good Start But Imagine Its Third or Fourth Version

 Source: Engadget.

When Apple came out with the original iPhone and spoke about how great the first version of the Gorilla Glass from Corner was, I tried to imagine what it would be like five versions down the line. It would be so strong and scratch resistant that, well, it would eventually be crack and scratch resistant, right? Just like this new LG foldable glass, the first generation is promising but I don't know if it will live to up expectations. So, I wonder what the third or forth generation of this foldable glass will be like. To do that, we will have to visit the first time we were told about how strong the original iPhone glass was.

When Steve Jobs went on stage to unveil the iPhone to the world for the first time, it was also the first time we have ever heard of Gorilla Glass from Corning. We heard later about how Apple with with a plastic screen during the prototype stages and how bad the screen became as a short period of use and how Apple went to Corning and Steve Jobs warped Corning's CEO into his reality distortion field and convinced him to give him something impossible.  And the Gorilla Glass was born. 

As far as I know, Apple is still using the Gorilla Glass from Corning. I think we can definitely say that the glass has improved vastly since 2007. I still get a small scratch here and there and continue to cringe each time I see a broken glass in an iPhone 11 or 12 on the Internet. We are not at the point of shatter resistant and through also more scratch resistant, today's Gorilla glass isn't quite there yet. 

So, with LG marketing about how good it's foldable glass is, I have to believe that they have some way of backing up all this talk, especially if Apple will use it one day. Apple will continue to demand only the best and, again, the impossible as far as how durable and scratch resistant the LG glass is going to be. Oh, and let's add crease free to that.

If what LG says is true about its foldable glass and Apple is impressed enough to use it, imagine what the third or fourth generation of the glass is going to be like. Imagine how impress and cool that would be. 

If it all goes according to plan, expect LG to start selling them to customers (ahem, Apple), in a couple of years. 

Saturday, October 9, 2021

Should You Upgrade Or Get A Computer, Smartphone, New Car, Or Anything That Runs On A Computer Chip Amidst The Global Chip Shortage

 Source: CNBC.

We seem to be running now on a lot of things. Since this blog is geared more towards, the vast majority of readers probably are aware of the chip shortage for a while now. And with the Holidays coming, tech toys are likely to continue to be in high demand and should fly off the shelves as fast as retailers can stock them. And that's before we even get into the Black Friday discussions. Question is should you upgrade now? 

This reminds me of when a lot of Apple users who are not up with the in-and-outs of Apple's product release schedule and will ask if they should upgrade now or wait. The quick and easy question is upgrade when you need to. And if you can wait, why not? 

However, this chip shortage may be different. The disruption seems to be mostly in the car industry as car manufacturers slow or shut down plants due to chip shortages. Consumer electronics are affected but not to the extend of other markets. You can still get a PC, Mac, or smartphone that you want. Right now, the new Galaxy phones and iPhones are just going through the channels and some models are more difficult to find because of the pinned up demand for new models. There are posts out there that suggest the wait may be longer than past years. 

Let us not forget that media reports of these types are high unreliable and we will not know for sure until the tech companies report their financials for the current quarter to know what is really going on. Production relays are not unusual. Apple devices have taken longer than expected, at least those of public exceptions, and took longer to ramp up. Recent reports suggest that the new Apple Watch 7 which just became available for presale are limited in quantity and the reason seems to be a production issue rather than the result of a chip shortage.

This seems to be different than that of the car industry. If anything, the question about getting a car is a bigger one than if you should get the new game system now or wait for a Black Friday deal. And given that there is a global chip shortage, can you afford to wait too long? 

One other issue to consider beyond chips is the disruption in the supply chain. That is a bigger issue than if your car model is going to be available when you go into the car dealership. Your car, computer, Xbox, or Mac may be sitting on a ship that is currently dock off the coast of California waiting for its turn to have its cargo off loaded. There are good chances that they may not get into the retail stores or warehouses on time.

The chip shortage and supply chain issues may be here to stay at least through all of 2022 and into 2023. Personally, I'm a good place now. I'm happy with what I have. This affords me the chance to sit back and wait to see what the next MacBook from Apple is enough to entice me to upgrade.

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Work From Anywhere: Mac or PC

 Source: 9to5Mac.

During the work from home period of the pandemic last year, I had been using my personal MacBook from 2016 as my primary computing machine for work. Since returning to work in the office this June, I had been given a Windows laptop with an i7 chip, which I assume is at least towards the high end of the speed spectrum, with 16 GB of memory.  From my experience, if I was given a choice of a new Macbook with M1 or the Windows laptop, I think I would rather go with the MacBook.

The Windows laptop I was given was an HP laptop with a much bigger screen than my 12” MacBook. There were many advances in laptop technology in the last 5 years and the HP is faster with most operations. It had the advantage of a faster Intel ship, native software from Microsoft, and 16 GB of RAM to my 8 GB on the MacBook.  Plus, my Macbook was barely above 1 GHz.


So, my new Windows HP laptop is a monster, right?  Fearlessly chewing up Excel sheets while allowing me to open about 10 tabs on the default Microsoft browser, Edge, and playing a Youtube video of someone who recently visited Universal Studios, the real one in California, for Halloween without breaking a sweet.

Well, maybe. Maybe not. I could not really tell. See, while it did all that, I also was able to do the same on the Macbook with only 8 GB and an aging CPU vs 16 GB on the latest Intel chip. The Windows laptop was faster with a very large Excel file but I was still able to walk away, make coffee and get a snack and enjoy it before it was finished. With the MacBook, I had time to go for a run and come back and it would be finished. However, with the recent updates from Apple and Microsoft, the same Excel file was also faster on the MacBook as well.

And that same file on a Surface laptop? 16BG and whatever the high end option we could get from earlier in the year seemed to have to labor through those calculations. I think it is faster than my MacBook. I think.

So, I can see why companies that invest in getting Macs for its employees have a better return in the long run than those who go with the traditional Windows option. And this is just a small company I work for.  For enterprises with hundreds if not thousands of companies, they stand to save over $800 per user (see link above) over three years by going with a Mac because it needed less support and had a longer uptime without having to worry about the usual issues that come with machines running Windows.

Furthermore, the Forrester report finds that companies with Macs tend to have a higher worker retention as well as increase productivity. What if you are a small company with only a hand full of employees or going solo?

I still think the Mac is the way to go - the MacBook Air with M1 seems to be designed just for that. It has everything you need right out of the box - Safari for Internet access, Mail for emailing, and Apple’s suite of productivity apps, while far from perfect, are good alternatives to Microsoft Office. Furthermore, the computing environment we have today are nothing like those of the late-90s and the 2000s when even if companies want to deploy Macs, they could not because many applications were Windows only. Today, there is virtually a native Mac version of the top applications. On top of that, many applications can now be accessed through a browser. 

And let’s not forget about the native security features of the MacOS. As far as I know, there has not been a major ransomware hack of a company or government agency running Macs (I do not think there is a government agency in the world that operates with mostly Macs). (See Macworld UK). There are Trojan horses rather than traditional Windows viruses that require the user to do a few things like disabling security measures Apple have in place that keep them at bay. 

On the Windows side, if you’re mostly safe if you do not venture into the bad neighborhoods if you get my meaning.  Even then, there are things that could go wrong. And with hundreds if not thousands of employees, the risk is amplified when running Windows vs Mac. I keep to myself. I run whatever my work laptop is for. I have my iPad or iPhone with me when I need to do stuff that are not work related. I watch YouTube videos and that’s as far as I go with the work computer. And even then, I sometimes wonder if something has snuck in and running in the background without me knowing it just because it’s a Windows laptop.

I don’t have the same concern on a Mac.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Twitter's Communities Can Just Be Better Than Facebook But A Force For Positive Advocacy

 Source: Twitter, The Verge.

Twitter has been a tear lately with some new features and one of the most important one which could really be a breakout for Twitter is its version of communities to compete with Facebook and Reddit. As with anything social media these days, it could be useful or toxic like the spread of false information regarding election fraud or COVID vaccines. Twitter seems to have a good approach from what they are saying and what is on paper. It has to be a positive force for good, not simply better than Facebook.

Twitter is about making money for itself and creating value for shareholders. Twitter is now profitable and its stock has gone up a lot in the last year. Compared to Facebook, it is no where near where Facebook's profit and valuation is. So, Twitter has been trying a lot of new features in the last few years that can retain and engage users and encourage them to come back regularly rather than occasionally checking on their timelines.  That has been Twitter's problem. 

With Communities, it might have a winner.  Twitter seemed to have learned from the mistakes others have made and decided to go at it slowly. It is offering Communities on an invitation-only basis for now and will have qualified moderators. It is also rolling it out at a slower paces to work out any issues or bugs. 

And a slower pace that allows Twitter to do something important that Facebook and other communities have failed to do: others have allowed their communities to go unchecked and become havens for hate, conspiracy theories, and other harmful social platforms. This is not an issue about free speech. Political communities are probably going to be allowed on Twitter across the political spectrum - conservatives, liberals, or moderates. However, extremism must not be allowed to breed and foster on Twitter. Otherwise, Twitter Communities would be no different from from Facebook.

Also, Twitter needs to letting its communities turn into echo chambers and that rules are applied evenly across the board and respect the privacy of users.

Personally, I'm rooting for Twitter to flourish and be a real factor in the social media realm and I'm looking forward to trying Communities out.

Saturday, September 11, 2021

Social: Delta Airline's Plan To Add $2400 A Year For Its Unvaccinated Force Work Is Working

 Source: CNBC.

Delta Airline started charging workers a $2400 extra per year for health insurance for those who are not vaccinated. A full 20% of the unvaccinated workforce at Delta got their shots two weeks after Delta made the announcement. It makes sense and this is something more companies should try. 

And why not? The Affordable Care Act penalizes tax payers for violating the individual mandate. In same ways, this is an extension of that. If you are not willing to do your part, you have to pay extra. 

Now, I get that some people are avoid vaccine for legitimate reasons. For the most part, I personally have  not come across a strong argument against vaccines other than false information or unfounded fears. Some wanted to wait and see. It's been 9 months since the COVID vaccines have been distributed and administered to millions. There are been reports of side effects and even deaths but statistically minute.

Come on, America. Let's get this virus under control so we can have a real reopening, maybe even without masks.

So far, I have not heard of any other company trying what Delta is doing. I am sure that if more unvaccinated workers at Delta begin to get vaccinated to avoid footing over $2400 a year by November 1 (Delta's deadline), it could get boardrooms across America to get on board with this plan as well.

For Delta, the monthly $200 penalty brings the percentage of its workers who are vaccinated from 74% to 78%. That means a vast majority of its workers were already board with protecting themselves and others from COVID-19. 

If we can get even half the unvaccinated in the US to get vaccinated, it would have a huge impact on how we go forward in the US socially and economically heading into winter and 2022.

Sunday, September 5, 2021

Working From Home - It Has Been Done Before for Many Years Before COVID and Companies Should Get Used To It

 Source:  Live Science.

A majority of us enjoy working from home since we have had a taste of what that is like since the pandemic in the last eighteen months and counting.  We have had a taste of what work life can be if we do not have to go into the office five days a week, or even four.  An even larger majority like the option to work from continue to work from home or at least have that option available to us. It's time companies come to this realization because this was not the first time since workers have had the technology to telecommute.  

Yes, before working from home was working from home, there was telecommuting. It was offered in most special circumstances. My friend's wife had been working with a firm from Los Angeles where she started a few years after college and remained for nearly twenty years while working from various cities as they moved around from the West Coast to the Midwest and then up the Pacific Northwest.

And let us not forget a various of freelance jobs that are offered to consultants and freelance workers who have been able to work more easily remotely as technology for telecommuting has gotten better. If the COVID pandemic had happened back before the Internet, it would have been much more devastating and creating an even greater public health crisis all over the world.

The difference between telecommuting in the past and the COVID-created "work from anywhere" phenomenon is the number of workers who have participated and continue to work remotely because of the current pandemic. Previously, a worker likely would need to have a unique skill set and special circumstances to request for telecommuting and be granted it. Today, as COVID continue to rage with new variants, especially among those who have not been vaccinated, WFA is especially crucial to workers who wish to remain healthy whether they are vaccinated or not. Companies should recognize this fundamental aspect of a worker's health before any policy change to revert back to requiring workers return to the office.

Most recently, Apple had a change of heart after months of expecting workers to return to their cubicles and offices in September and has pushed the deadline back to 2022 with no hard date given the uncertainty  and pandemic is posing to businesses and employees. 

Companies need to make sure that worker health is paramount and above the need for maximizing profit. I have been back in the office for nearly three months but most of us are isolated from each over and have adequate distancing and air circulation. However, I cannot say that is the same for everyone else. Employees continue to get COVID without policies to send workers home like they did a year ago and only ask (not require) employees be tested once is is known that someone they work with was infected. No longer are employees automatically quarantine like before. And this is not due to a change in policy by the CDC but rather it shows that employers are no longer taking the pandemic seriously.

Delta variant of the COVID has dominated the conversation but a new one, Mu, is the one to watch as it has shown that it is just as infectious and has shown natural immunity against antibodies and vaccines. It is not the time let up and force workers back to the offices. Companies like Apple, Google, and others that have either build new campuses or rented office spaces in expensive downtown real estates should not let such costs factor into asking employees to return. What happens is that employees who can work remotely and safely continue to be just as productive as before. And employers, both small and large, need to innovate and adapt to changing environments and needs of the workforce and be open to employees never returning to the office.

I hope everyone is having a good Labor Day weekend and when Tuesday comes around, you're working safely at home, outdoor, anywhere you choose being just as productive and worth every dollar your company pays you. And most importantly, you're healthy and safe.

Friday, September 3, 2021

Apple Is Listening To You - CSAM Delayed (Or Shelved), Other Ways Apple Heeded Public Opinions

 Apple surprised pretty much everyone when it announced that it would scan photos for evidence of sexual child abuse. The first thought, I am sure it is the same for most other Apple followers, is that it seems like a bad one, one that would quickly be followed by "the road to hell was paved with good intentions". Now, another surprise: Apple has backdown from following through, for now. It shows that Apple has finally learned a valuable lesson. Perhaps, Apple could have implemented the scan photos for Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM). 

Last month, Apple made the announcement of an upcoming feature to scan photos stored on iPhones for sexual abuse of children.  You likely have seen CSAM all over the news and on the Internet. It really has not been talked about enough in the context of what it could offer users in general. For something like this, it means that Apple has developed algorithms that can recognize certain elements in photos that is beyond identifying people, objects, and places. 

For many, I suppose it can be a great feature to have. I have gone through my photo library based on people or places that I have visited over the years. Not once has it dawned on me that Apple may will know more about me that I expected but not to the point where Google knows more about me than even I know about myself. Given Apple's stance on privacy, I still think that Apple has kept certain doors closed to itself about us.

What remains true about that is that it is Apple who still holds the keys to the privacy door. Not the user and at any time, whether through corporate needs, decrees by government, or anything else that could compel Apple to change its policy or view on privacy, that door will be opened. Perhaps a little at a time.

Apple's about-face here shows that it is listening to users. What we do not know is why.  Has Apple decided it is a feature they’re still hashing out and need more time to think through or bring it back at a later time when all the uproar has died down?

How about other features and products that Apple makes? Will Apple now be more receptive to what the public wants to a point? It will be interesting to see. There are times when it seems that Apple figures it knows what is best for the consumers and will not add a feature that many are request if ever or comes after years of waiting. One example is being able to chat with multiple users on FaceTime. It took years for Apple to finally implement that.

And the MacBook with the keyboard debacle around 2016-2018. Apple finally gave up on the butterfly keyboards and moved on to give users what they want -  you know, keys that actually can be typed on. Then there is the ports or lack of on the MacBooks. Not only did Apple take away ports but it affected critical workflow for professional users that have come to depend on them.

That Apple finally came around on CSAM should not be surprising. Apple under Tim Cook has always charted a course to avoid controversy whether in the US or even places like China. I believe Apple does think it is doing good with CSAM. I think it just needs to take public opinion into account and really make sure the feature is fully baked.

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Twitter Is Missing Out On Being the Go-To Network Without Being Controversial and Disliked Like Facebook

As a daily user, Twitter can count me in as one of its daily users that it use as a metric for advertising.  Despite the MAGA crowd hating Twitter along with Facebook for banning all those who spread false news and dangerous conspiracy theories, it still offers a wide range of political opinions. Politic aside, it is a very relevant and open social network that is not as manipulative as Facebook (Twitter still relies on ads for its revenue but it is looking at other sources of income).  Twitter is far from a saint but it does not carry the stink of Facebook and that is a good thing.  However, Twitter is missing out on become even more relevant and the go to source for news and information.  If Twitter can turn that around, it will find a huge gold mine just waiting for it to take.

Like cable news, Twitter had an increase in engagement during the Trump years in office.  Compared to Trump, no tweet from the Biden administration or the president has yet to generate much headlines, controversies, or retweets. I'm sure it's bad for business from Twitter's perspective.  However, relying on elections and wannabe dictators is no way to build your business model upon.  

Currently, Twitter is upping its game and trying to make Twitter more appealing to current users.  While that is good that Twitter is trying to add features to its app (Twitter is as much a social network as it is an app), it does not hold much appear outside.  It does not seem to have ever experienced the meteoric rise that other social networks have had.  Aside from competitions from other social networks and apps that are fighting for user engagement and attention, it really has no competition.  

So, either Twitter has a limited appear among the seven billion humans on earth or that it needs to do more to make it more appealing and engaging while not being as controversial and disliked as Facebook. Perhaps, the main limitation of Twitter's growth and appeal has to do with its beginning.  Short messages of 140 characters allows users to say a lot but it is only 140 characters, basically a text message.  That might have been fine in the beginning but even Twitter realized that it had to increase the number of characters users are allowed to send per tweet to 280 characters.  It's like that Twitter will increase that again in the future for no reason other than to generate headlines.

Twitter has seen as a microblogging apps that blasts out short ideas but it does not do much after that.  If there is a link, users are taken out of the app entirely and probably will not come back right away.  Twitter has become a gateway to some.  Twitter does not have to become an enclosed Internet.  No need for walls to keep users in.  What it does need is for users to stay longer.

Perhaps, Twitter also needs to do a campaign that explains what Twitter is all about and how it can be an important part of people's lives - for sources of good information and entertainment.  Everyone once in a while, blast something out on television, Youtube, or ads on websites to reminder users that Twitter is the place to go if they to stay informed or engaged on matters or subjects they find appealing. "Local news. Sure! Follow your local news channels and get updates on weather, news, and local issues while making your voice heard."  "Into vampire romance materials.  Twitter is the place go to!"

One of the things that appear to users is live blogging.  Twitter has not done enough to tap into that - live bloggers follow Apple and Google events and are popular among tech enthusiasts and fans.  Twitter may consider sponsoring or promoting certain events with social media hosts tweeting out updates - sporting events, the next SpaceX or Virgin Galactic launches, community events, concerts, and host watch parties during new shows and post show chats with users. Spaces, a live audio feature for users to chat about whatever they want to to engage users, is a good start that Twitter needs to promote and help grow. It cannot be only the users pushing it.  This is a very exciting new feature.

The possibilities are there for Twitter to rival and outshine the likes of Facebook without being despised.  Twitter is not doing bad right now but it is not doing great either.  There is a lot of room for improvement and growth.  Twitter needs to evolve beyond tweets and move into areas that truly makes it social platform.


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