CEOs Sacked, Cloudy Forecast. Consolidation Coming?

Here are the new kids on the block: Samsung, Motorola, HTC. Maybe LG.

Here are the guys who don't get it. Let's call them the "old guys": Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Dell, HP...though HP gets a pass because its Palm acquisition has yet to play out. RIM probably belongs here too given the limitations they've put on Playbook and the weird marketing.

Wild Cards: Amazon And Barnes and Noble. Sony And Nintendo Should be with the Old Guys but I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt.

So far, the new kids are doing well. Dazzling the market with new Windows Phone 7 and Android gears. And just completed 3 months of 2011, we'll see more Android 3, Honeycomb, tablets hit the market and continue what the iPad did last year: putting a hurt on the laptop market and possibly finishing off the netbooks.

The old guys spew a lot of double talk about how their experience in enterprise will ultimately demonstrate that they new guys's tablets, including the iPad, will not have a chance. They came out with fuzzy math to show how the tablet is more expensive.

And yet, so far, vaporware.

Because it's a Friday afternoon, let me put this out there. Dell is going to fail. The rest of the old guys probably will struggle bit time as well as the mobile market shifts in terms of needs and what the new type of computing the tablets represent.

And like HP having to go out and buy Palm for the Web OS, I wonder if others will need to do the same to stay viable over the next decade.

Dell has to make an acquisition or two. As an old guy, Dell is still making loads of cash. And the PC market isn't just going to disappear overnight. And of the new guys, Motorola Mobile (MMI) is the weakest and smallest.

Can Dell come in and scoop them up and instantly gain strong street cred with Xoom and Droid? It has done that in the past with the gaming laptop maker, Alienware. On top of that, there's talk that Motorola is making their own OS to distance themselves from Android and Windows Phone 7.

Dell will probably see what their lineup will do against others. It will gain no traction and the blogs and investors will demand action. They'll probably have to go out buy what they need. All that matters is when Michael Dell pulls the trigger. I'm predicting it'll be Motorola because RIM will be too expensive. Plus, RIM's got a couple of erratic co-CEOs that might clash with Dell.

For the other old guys, 2011 will be exciting not because of their new products which are largely based on old thinking but what they will do once they fail. Aside of HP's Touchpad, the rest of the Android tablets will be hard to differentiate. And though some might hope that a Windows tablet OS might save them, that is probably a 2012 thing, more likely 2013 given Micrsoft's track record to promise but under deliver.

The ebook sellers and the gaming guys, Wildcard guys, present a very interest dynamics going forward. And they have an opportunity to play big roles or completely disappear into nothingness. I'm looking foward to speculate what could come of them.

Right now, the situations for the old guys are more dire. HP has to succeed with the Touchpad and the next Web OS smartphones. Dell will fail miserably and look for an answer through a buyout.

The same is probably true for the rest of the old guys. Their only opening is in Asia where many of these old guys can still count as their stronghold. However, that window will close quickly once Apple has its iPad 2 supply issues figured out (Steve Jobs has $60+ billion in the bank to do just that) and more Apple stores start opening up.

Atrix: Tweets and If Netbook Dock Will Change Mobile Computing (Android)

This is a post of my tweets regarding the upcoming Atrix with a laptop dock that will be available on AT&T:

#Atrix: The success of Atrix (or not) will determine whether #Android kills off #Chrome OS faster. #AT&T #Google #motorola (Part 1)

#Atrix: If successful, it might establish #Android as the default OS for future netbooks #AT&T #Android #motorola (Part 2)

#Atrix: It can move Nvidia out of just graphics and into mainstream CPU – Intel/AMD could lose out #AT&T #Android #motorola (Part 3)

#Atrix: This will accelerate #microsoft’s Windows for #arm chip even more if it happens. #AT&T #Android #motorola (Part 4)

#Atrix: Without need for storage, CPU, or others parts in a regular netbook, battery life sould be better. #AT&T #Android #motorola (Part 5)

#Atrix: A new mobile way of working – take your smartphone with you and plug it into any terminal #AT&T #Android #motorola (part 6)

#Atrix: Too bad it’s on #AT&T because it no longer offers unlimited 3G access #AT&T #Android #motorola (part 7)

#Atrix: $500 is a lot. #XOOM may offer better value as a tablet. No need for dock to have larger screen #AT&T #Google #motorola (part 8)

#Atrix: with Atrix & #Xoom, Motorola has a foundation for changing mobile life & computing #AT&T #Google #motorola (part 9)

#Atrix: will be available for pre-order with AT&T on Feb 13 - $199, $499 with netbook dock #AT&T #Google #motorola (part 10)

#Atrix: Impact on mobile computing depends on battery, enterprise, and #iPhone competition #AT&T #Google #motorola (part 11)

#Atrix: #AT&T just push netbook dock combo or else, it’ll just be another #Android phone #motorola (part 12)


Bottom-line: The Atrix is an incredible product on paper and promises to deliver based on the videos I’ve seen.

Motorla has a truly added a new dynamic to the mobile market. I look for a lot of copycats in 2012 if Atrix sales explodes. But like I said in the tweets, there could be things holding it back.

Pricing is one. AT&T is making users sign up for a bunch of services that they don’t need if they want to have the Atrix-dock combo.

Second, data plans. I’m not talking about the cost but the limited data access AT&T has. Seriously, as a mobile user, I want unlimited use. I don’t want to be restricted to 2GB or the limitation put on the tethering plan.

Rather than just AT&T, Motorola should have made the dock available to other networks that provide unlimited 3G access.

As it is now, it’s a very enticing product. We’ll just have to see if this is the magic bullet AT&T is looking for to replace its lost of iPhone exclusivity and if this will usher in an new era of mobile computing.

Is There Room For Web OS In 2011 - Maybe Not

Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 (WP7) did not sell one million units its first weekend but Microsoft cannot afford to cede the mobile market to Apple or Google. And it has the staying power and deep deep pocket to win marketshare if not necessarily the hearts and minds of users.

With WP7 already having an app store already rivaling HP's Web OS in terms of numbers of apps, is there room for Web OS in the market anymore?

eBooks And Possibly Paying Taxes On Devices To Read Them

We believe that Amazon is doing quite a number on the number of eBooks since the Kindle came out. It's not sure just how the shift away traditional to digital copies has resulted with the number of ebook readers on the market. After stating they've sold 2 million iPads, Apple said 5 million books have been downloaded.

It's not known how many of those are free and what the percentage of the iPad owners have downloaded iBooks, Apple's dedicated ebook app reader. Still, it's quite impressive. Personally, I can't wait to see how much more growth Apple, Amazon, and Barnes and Noble can generate through 2010.

Barnes And Noble's Nook is a popular device and I imagine the bookseller, which based it on Android OS, will expand its usability and entice more people to its popular platform for reading. Recently, BN updated the Nook for Web browsing and added games as well.

Of course, it'll be a while before the Kindle and Nook matches the iPad in its multi-use and ecosystem. Therefore, I'm looking for near-term growth in ebook consumption from additional iPad sales and sales of other tablets running on Android and Windows through 2011. As of now, I'm not seeing the love from Amazon and Barnes and Noble on my G1. Plus, we'll see Google get into the game soon.

Taxing your iPad and Droid. During a brainstorming session, one of the "brilliant" (lots and lots of sarcasm here) idea is to tax mobile devices to save the print industry. Absolutely brilliant. Of course, some EU nations tax music players to save the music industry there.

Furthermore, Rassmussen Reports released some polling results showing very little support for this concept. So, tax devices that people when they exercise but, wow, don't tax our sugared and other high-calorie snacks. Brilliant guys.

More at Teleread.

HP Now Owns Palm

Just minutes ago, news broke that HP has bought Palm for $1.2 billion.

Why HP? Well, we'll have to let the dust settle a bit before analyzing this deal. We need to know who goes and who stays and what everyone's new roles are in the merger.

The question is going to be whether Jon Rubinstein is going to stay. And if so, what role he will play. I've always like Palm and rooted for them when WebOS came out but time was not on their side. They had once chance to succeed with Sprint and that failed. By the time Palm brought the Pre over to Verizon Wireless, Droid and the surging Android platform had already established itself.

With HP, Palm and WebOS should have a bigger role to play. Not to mentioned a deep pocket parent company.

Best of luck to the new company.

Gameloft And Others Cut Back on Android Dev

Gameloft, as well as other developers, are cutting back or abandoning Android app development all together.

This is what I'm afraid of. Right now, I don't see a lot of people getting excited about their Android phones. It's as simple as that. Android is one of the most exciting mobile platform on the market today for the media, bloggers, and armchair quarterbacks, but it just isn't generating the same kind of excitement among users as the iPhone and iPod Touch is doing for its users.

I've spent $$$ on my iPhone apps while I've spent less than $20 on my G1. Why is that? Here's a couple of reasons:

1. Even at 10K strong in the Android Marketplace, the few apps compare favorably in use, feel, and looks as even mediocre apps in the iTunes app store.
2. I don't know if any app I buy now will work with my future Android devices. Already, there is a lot of fear of fragmentation is what I'm hearing and reading about. Just thinking about the Microsoft Windows Mobile situation.

Basically, Google created a huge potential and has yet to made it work for developers as well as users. You can't blame users or developers for this.

Gameloft is reporting the iPhone has already grown to 13% of its revenue while iPhone apps are selling 400 times better than Android apps. One can attribute that the fact that the iPhone has been in the market two years longer than Google's mobile platform. Maybe.

However, after a year, I believe Apple had been bragging about one billion downloads.

Well, I attribute that to the beta-ish status of the G1. I am hoping the new devices like Droid and others running Android 2.0 will realize the full potential what Android can do.  We'll see what Google does to help its developers and it better come through big time.

Note:  Google is in the mobile market to sell ads and be a player in mobile search.  It gives away its apps for free.

App For That Term Abused

Last week, I was discuss with some friends in the tech sector about mobile news.  Apple this, Microsoft that, Google and Verizon does Droid, etc.

One of the topic was something that I had a feeling was about to get out of control.  Well, it did today.  You know those Apple iPhone commercials.  The term used often was "there's an app for that".  Well, along that line, bloggers started using it and abusing it.  Then it was used by the Droid campaign from Verizon Wireless (though some said it's Motorola).

Now the great state of Florida is getting into it.  I'll let you watch the video and you'll see how they've even outdone VW and the bloggers.



Pretty cool, eh?  Swipes and pinches included too.

More on this at CNet.