CEOs Sacked, Cloudy Forecast. Consolidation Coming?

Here are the new kids on the block: Samsung, Motorola, HTC. Maybe LG.

Here are the guys who don't get it. Let's call them the "old guys": Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Dell, HP...though HP gets a pass because its Palm acquisition has yet to play out. RIM probably belongs here too given the limitations they've put on Playbook and the weird marketing.

Wild Cards: Amazon And Barnes and Noble. Sony And Nintendo Should be with the Old Guys but I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt.

So far, the new kids are doing well. Dazzling the market with new Windows Phone 7 and Android gears. And just completed 3 months of 2011, we'll see more Android 3, Honeycomb, tablets hit the market and continue what the iPad did last year: putting a hurt on the laptop market and possibly finishing off the netbooks.

The old guys spew a lot of double talk about how their experience in enterprise will ultimately demonstrate that they new guys's tablets, including the iPad, will not have a chance. They came out with fuzzy math to show how the tablet is more expensive.

And yet, so far, vaporware.

Because it's a Friday afternoon, let me put this out there. Dell is going to fail. The rest of the old guys probably will struggle bit time as well as the mobile market shifts in terms of needs and what the new type of computing the tablets represent.

And like HP having to go out and buy Palm for the Web OS, I wonder if others will need to do the same to stay viable over the next decade.

Dell has to make an acquisition or two. As an old guy, Dell is still making loads of cash. And the PC market isn't just going to disappear overnight. And of the new guys, Motorola Mobile (MMI) is the weakest and smallest.

Can Dell come in and scoop them up and instantly gain strong street cred with Xoom and Droid? It has done that in the past with the gaming laptop maker, Alienware. On top of that, there's talk that Motorola is making their own OS to distance themselves from Android and Windows Phone 7.

Dell will probably see what their lineup will do against others. It will gain no traction and the blogs and investors will demand action. They'll probably have to go out buy what they need. All that matters is when Michael Dell pulls the trigger. I'm predicting it'll be Motorola because RIM will be too expensive. Plus, RIM's got a couple of erratic co-CEOs that might clash with Dell.

For the other old guys, 2011 will be exciting not because of their new products which are largely based on old thinking but what they will do once they fail. Aside of HP's Touchpad, the rest of the Android tablets will be hard to differentiate. And though some might hope that a Windows tablet OS might save them, that is probably a 2012 thing, more likely 2013 given Micrsoft's track record to promise but under deliver.

The ebook sellers and the gaming guys, Wildcard guys, present a very interest dynamics going forward. And they have an opportunity to play big roles or completely disappear into nothingness. I'm looking foward to speculate what could come of them.

Right now, the situations for the old guys are more dire. HP has to succeed with the Touchpad and the next Web OS smartphones. Dell will fail miserably and look for an answer through a buyout.

The same is probably true for the rest of the old guys. Their only opening is in Asia where many of these old guys can still count as their stronghold. However, that window will close quickly once Apple has its iPad 2 supply issues figured out (Steve Jobs has $60+ billion in the bank to do just that) and more Apple stores start opening up.

Tablet Today: Where Is HP and Dell?

Everyone know that HP and Dell are the two biggest PC makers in the world. And while the PC market is not going anywhere (I happen to like laptops and think the future continues to be bright), there are additional facets to the mobile computing market. And laptop computing is being encroached upon.

Mobile devices like the iPhone and tablets are coming up fast. And in these two markets, HP has not made much of a splash and Dell barely dipped its toe in it. So, the question I posed is where do these two successful veterans of the PC market fit in the smartphone and tablet markets?

Sony Will have Xperia Play, What about Nintendo?

Mario, Zelda, and the Pokemons have entertained us for years. Decades now. But with the mobile gaming landscape changing so far, what should Nintendo do? Should they remain in the hardware business? I think Nintendo has one more chance to get things right and that's the DSi.

But I think more and more, that's looking less likely to keep Nintendo in the game. Consider that fact that decaded gaming devices, consoles or handheld, live for 3-4 years at a time. In an era where the iPhone is updated annually and new Android devices released throughout a given year, Nintendo, or Sony's PSP for that matter, just cannot stay up with the trend.

It is increasingly looking like Sony will bite the bullet and merge PSP with its Xperia phone and call it Xperia Play. For Sony, there is a lot of risks but the rewards could be huge. How about Nintendo?

I see three options. I don't see Nintendo with the staying power to just push out dedicated mobile gaming devices.

1. Get into the phone business.  Apple did it and I'm sure Nintendo can find a Japanese phone maker who would be happy to help Nintendo with a DSphone.  Is this likely?  No but stranger things have happened.  Perhaps Nokia would a willing partner.
2. Get out of the hardware business completely.  Do what Sega did after Saturn expired.  Would you like to see Nintendo's starters and deep bench of libraries on the iPhone, Android, PC and Mac, Xbox 360, and PS3?  I see a lot of dollar signs there.  I don't see this happen unless Nintendo really cannot keep technically with the rest of the mobile market.  But it is certainly enticing and I would love to see it happen as a gamer.
3. Create a platform and license it to developers and hardware makers.  For instance, HTC can license Nintendo's designs to put it on its own phone.  So could Motorola, LG, Samsung, or anyone else who wants to let its users catch Pokemons to battle.  

I think I like the third option the best.  Like Google, Nintendo can come up with a reference device.  It can run on Android, Windows, WebOS or some Linux variant.  Hardware makers can build off that.  Devices would be subject to Nintendo's approval.  Once all conditions are met, Nintendo-approved devices can be manufactured and sold.

In a way, Nintendo would still be in the hardware business as an overseer, allow others to take the risk, and continue to build excellent games for it.  

Is this viable?  I think so.  If you want to play Nintendo games, you still have to buy Nintendo-approved devices.  

iPhone: Comparison Chart From Tmo or it iPhone 4 Coming to Tmo

I don't want to get ahead of myself here but there is something I want to share with you. Tmo-News got a hold of what looks like a comparison chart between three of T-Mobile's top existing mobile devices and the iPhone 4 (except in the picture, it is that of the 3GS).

Now, that could be just what is it: a comparison chart. Or is it? It doesn't seem to be making any disparaging remarks about the iPhone. Rather, it seems to be playing up both the strengths of iPhone 4 and iOS4. The three devices also in the chart are myTouch Slide (lame because it's using two-year old tech), HTC HD2 (lame because it's using last decade's OS), and Garminfone (no comment because I honestly know nothing about it but welcome it to the market because more competition, the better).

As with other comparisons released by, say, Verizon, Verizon make sure not to make the iPhone sound good at all (like what "Droid does"). Not one single good thing about the iPhone at all.





Again here, the descriptions for the iPhone 4 could have come from Apple or ATT because they all sounded very good. Lots of Apps. New OS. Thinnest iPhone. Better battery life. Frontal camera. Better display than the other devices.

So, I submit this: this is not a comparison chart but a chart of a line-up of mobile devices that T-Mobile has and will have in the near future that includes the iPhone 4?

Why with the wrong pictures for the iPhone? My theory is that No one has been given the right marketing pictures (comparison chart or otherwise) of the iPhone 4. T-Mobile can't very well go to ATT and Apple's websites and rip off the pictures they need.

Also, to keep in mind. Most of Tmo-News' commenters do not think this is anything other than a comparison chart that really made some of them want to get an iPhone 4.

What do you think it is?

Note: This may well be just that, a comparison chart that was trying to be "fair and balanced" (take notes, Foxnews) and nothing more. Historically, folks unhappy with ATT have unlocked their iPhones for use with T-Mobile running on the slower EDGE rather than suffer through the network issues or whatever problems they may have encountered with ATT in the past (for me, it was bad coverage and worst customer services in the industry). Or, though not likely because of Tmo-News' connection, is that this is a fake chart to make us think the iPhone is coming to T-Mobile.

More at Tmo-News


-- Post From My iPad

First WiMax Phone From Sprint Cannot Talk & Surf At The Same Time

Here's the quick rundown:  When Sprint announced the HTC EVO last week, it really catapulted the 3rd place wireless provider to the front of the class as far as next generation mobile network is concerned.

Even T-Mobile made waves with its HSPA+ network plans.

But it was still EVO that made every mobile warrior salivate.  But HTC just told us that the handset can only allow the user to either talk or surf the Web, but not both.

More at On Android.

Apple's Answer to Pre's WebOS, Sense, and MOTOBLUR

When Apple offered the original iPhone, there was no app store.  There were no apps to speak of other than those offered by Apple and selected partners.  But we always knew that apps were coming.  Instead of coming clean, Jobs told the masses that the apps were available via Safari.


Simply develop for iPhone via Safari and that was it.  And in deed, many mobile developers did just that.  Webapps continue to make their way onto Apple's directory for weapps.  And maybe that's a good thing for iPhone users.


One of the things that's noticeably absent from the iPhone is seemingly cool accessible social and contact webapps that Pre users love. Apple has not provided an answer to HTC's Sense or Motorola's MOTOBLUR in offer cool looking widgets for offering quick access to social sites like Facebook and microblogs like Twitter.  In fact, I'm not sure the developers for Android that offer products in this category are happy about being supplemented by the phone developers.  But that's another issue.


However, I think I've figured out what Apple may be offering that will seem more innovative than anything offered on the market to date.  And it won't be anything new at all.  It'll just seem new because it's from Apple and Steve Jobs will sell it to us as something... well, you know...his reality distortion field will be on full-power.


So what will it be?  Dashboard.  Ah, I see those familiar with the Mac and Mac OS that has Dashboard know exactly what I'm talking about.  Basically, Dashboard is Apple's answer to micro-applications that are small, faster, and simple that ran under an environment like Yahoo's Widgets or the sidebars we started seeing in great numbers in Vista and Windows 7.  

To access widgets in Dashboard in OS X, you can assign a hotkey or drag your mouse pointer to a corner in your Mac or Macbook and the widgets would appear.

Why do I think this is where Apple is headed?  First, it is an easy implementation for Apple's iPhone team because it is an existing feature.  How will it work?  That's up to Apple of course.  But in my limited experience with user interface, perhaps there is an icon for Dashboard.  Or Apple can start the iPhone in Dashboard mode and allow users to switch to the current classic format we've got today.  A third method of implementation is that uses can tap on a corner or swipe with a gesture to implement Dashboard.  Once Dashboard is activated, the screen is replaced with widgets added by users.  The user can swipe between windows for access to their widgets just like they do now with their apps.

The second reason I think Apple will offer Dashboard for the iPhone is obvious for Apple.  There are already widgets for the OS X that can be migrated over to the iPhone.  The fruit of hundreds of developers already exist and some may even work on the iPhone without much change.  For those that needs to be modified to work on the iPhone, I'm sure Apple will make it worth their while to made the changes as painlessly as possible.

The third reason is no competitor on the market can make the following claim:  develop for the iPhone, you also develop for the Mac.  Perhaps in the development kit, be it for the iPhone or the Mac, Apple may even offer an one-click option for widgets to be generated for the iPhone when developing for the Mac.

Here are examples of what Yahoo and Microsoft offers.  

For the record, these are just what I think Apple will likely offer and merely my thoughts on this issue.  Not based on rumors or secret moles from deep within Cuptertino.  Because while I wish I have sources, I don't.

It has been noted via Wiki that there was a demo showing that is it possible to install widgets on jail-broken iPhones and that an update to the iPhone SDK allow for creation of widgets.  Perhaps Apple is waiting for more robust Web standards like HTML 5 is approved and the next version of Webkit (the framework on which Apple's browser, Safari, Google's Chrome, and Android browser) with HTML 5 support is shipped.  The new Web standard will offer richer Web experiences currently only possible through plug-ins like Flash.

More about Apple's Dashboard at Wiki.  Apple's own Dashboard on the OS X page seems to be missing.

Mobile OS War

What does Canalys say about the OS shares?

In previous posts, we examined a bit the unit ranks from Canalys' report, originally reported from CNet.  Now, let's take a look at the mobile OS shares.

 

 This tells a slight different story than the units sold as reported.  Let's get into Microsoft.  with an impressive 42%, the growth rate still pales when compared to RIM's Blackberry OS shipment growth at 83.5%, nearly double that of the WM.

For Apple, because the data is skewed because of timing and market reach of the iPhone 3G.  And last year's figure for Apple was mostly confined to the US market.

However, more worrying sign for Microsoft is the growth of Linux, a choice apparently mobile warriors found more palpable than Windows Mobile.  The situation will only exacerbate by Android's introduction in the 4th quarter even if it confined to the US and UK.  And with Motorola throwing in their lot with Google's Android in the coming fiscal year, Android may find itself among one of the ranked OS in forthcoming surveys.

However, we know that Balmer has confirmed existing development on Windows Mobile 6.5, a welcoming piece of news if there is one.  Even if WM 6.5 has no new features but simple house-cleaning, the incremental upgrade will keep Microsoft in a strong position until Windows Mobile 7 is released in late 2009 or 2010.  But Microsoft cannot afford any more delays.

Most worrying-some is Symbian's 12% drop.  But we need to give some time to the open-source effort and see if it takes hold.  Even now, all eyes are Android, another open-source effort.  It is telling that Motorola picked Android over Symbian.  Says a lot and others, especially Chinese device makers, are going with Andoid.  Nokia is cash rich.  It's time they spend some of it to promote Symbian.

Do we need to say anything more about the iPhone?  No.  Interest is continues to be high and may grow as the dominant mobile device with telephony functions rather than a smartphone like others with computing functions.  We'll see how it goes head to head with the Blackberry family, specifically Storm next quarter and the one after that.

Other related Onxo and Web Posts:

• Onxo - smartphone ranking
• Onxo - Canalys Units Summary
• CNet - original source
• Canalys

Canalys Data Summary: Smartphone Shipments 3RD Quarter 2008

In the previous post , I mentioned CNet reporting on new smartphone data from Canalys.  I broke up the post because the previous post was something about the post itself.   Now, we'll get into the actual report itself.

What does the data from Canalys say about units shipped?

• Smartphone shipment rose 28% in the 3rd quarter over last year.
• 39.9 million units shipped.
• Nokia retains pole position to be followed by Apple in distance second.  Nokia took a hit in its marketshare as well.  But all things considered, Nokia held its own.
• The market is huge.  Onxo always believe there is enough room for multiple players to grow.  However, Microsoft has to start firing on all cylinders to maintain the status of a major competitor in the market.  Or else, remember Palm? 
• RIM came in 3rd but new devices may allow it to capture the silver in the 4th quarter.  Apple has but only one device.
• When it's all said and one, Nokia and RIM should gain shares are their new products are launched and have had a chance to reach intended markets.

I don't find Apple's 5X shipment increase all that important due to lack of previous metrics to make comparisons.  We need to see how it does once the iPhone distribution has settled.  Last year, the iPhone was only sold in the United States.  By the end of the year, it will be sold in about 70 countries.  Regardless how the data is interpreted, Apple hit a grand slam first time at bat.  And it did so again the 2nd time around.  Unfortunately for Apple, its reputation for innovation leaves it very little room to fall short.  To continue the baseball analogies, even a triple could be viewed as failure.

Here's what we need to look out for in the coming quarters:

• Blackberry numbers may be skewed since it will have additional devices on the market.  I really want to see how the retention rate is for RIM.
  
• HTC's 4th quarter number and beyond are very important.  Why?  Android.  
• More specifically, which platform is doing well.  We know Apple's iPhone OS made a great splash but how will Android fare a couple of quarters from now?  
• How low will Windows Mobile go?  It grew 42% but its competitors grew faster, including Linux.  It is in danger of being made irrelevant if folks latch onto other platforms currently with all the momentum.
• How will iPhone's sales be affected by new mobile devices?  And how will iPhone's sales affect adoption of new competing models?
• Can Apple sustain market share with only one model?  If not, perhaps subsequent drops in future quarters may point to Apple release more than one model of iPhone if they want to satisfy the different needs of mobile users.

Next post, let's look at this report from the OS angle.  Visit CNet and Canalys for more details.

Smartphone Shipment Worldwide Ranking

CNet has posted information produced by Canalys on smartphone shipments in the last quarter.

What's interesting in the post is the focus on the iPhone.  But given focus on Apple's mobile device in the last few months and the hits it'll generate from Apple folks, I suppose it's a smart move on their part.  So, iPhone, iPhone, iPhone...and Blackberries!

Now, how does impact mobile warriors?  Frankly, the numbers say nothing other than that if you make a good device, people will buy it no matter the hype you can generate.  The music player market is not as sophisticated as the mobile device market.  Hence, the users are also more knowledgeable about features and what devices can do what.

And it looks like the iPhone has what folks are looking for.  Oh sure, the hype helped too.  It's Steve Jobs and Apple after all.  But let's be fair.  The iPhone 3G is one pretty fine mobile device.

Here is a pic I lifted off Canalys of the ranks:

Nokia has the largest share of the market but it's growth may not come until next year when it has more devices on the market that can compete with Android, Apple, and RIM devices.

Visit CNet and Canalys for more details.  I'll follow up with pertinent data for those who don't want to go through the whole thing.

Mobile Update for October 23, 2008

Nothing major took place in the mobile world as we know it.  No new product announcement.  We're still digesting G1's impact and reviewing it.  I'm providing daily use experience and impressions at On Android.  Today, I'm focusing on battery life and Amazon's MP3 store app.

Now, here's a topic to think about.  RCR Wireless has a post on what "open access" means.  It's very well written and must read to catch up something that impacts all mobile warriors.  Essentially, everyone - wireless providers, handset makers, developers, and you (me too) have our own definition of what it means.

It's what the government will eventually rule on.  I don't know about you but if the definition of "open" as the wireless providers has redefined it is applied to "open access", we're in a lot of trouble.

Mobile Device Upate:

• New DSi images and videos from Destructoid.
• Onxo's Take on Apple's Netbooks; UMPC offers their take on Apple's netbooks.
• Appleinsider has dirt on next generation of chips.  Focus is on Macbooks but last I hear, Intel still sells to other folks too.
  
• CNet reports Intel introduces new cooling tech for laptops.  Lots of tech talk but hey, if it works, bring it!
• MSI Wind will reach 700,000 this year.  I think I'm the 500,000th customer.
• Crunchgear says Android and iPhone stores the same...in terms of the types of apps people download.  Then there is not a lot of stuff to download to begin with.  I'm still waiting.
  
• As reported by ATT, Bold will be available for $300 on November 4th.
  
• Gizmodo talks about a special Firefox that uses multi-touch gestures on the Macbooks.  More here.  Must read.
• Mobile Royale on Opera running on PSP.
• Liliputing lists 31 netbooks for $399 or less.  If you use live.com search, you can get a lot them for less via 30% off on eBay.  Just thought you might want to know.
  
• Onxo looks into October mobile surprises.

Mobile Issues:

• Yahoo News reports eight Congressmen wants to lose reelection by asking FCC to delay white spaces vote.  Lobbyists cheer business as usual still working in Washington.
• Wi-Fi Planet updates on Philly's Wi-Fi plans.
• Onxo on what consumers are cutting first before they get to their mobile bills
• CNet blog wants Sony to wake up.  I agree with most of it.
• Mobile Ent reports India now has 500 million mobile users.  That's more the population of North America combined (450 million)
  
• Wireless Week on e-mail addictions.
• Onxo on MS Exec on iPhone figures.
• World of Apple on ATT's 2.4M new iPhone users.
• Onxo thinks Sprint needs Android.
• Onxo goes through mobile categories and see if we might have a happy Christmas.

Mobile Update For October 22, 2008

I discussed a bit in an early post on the shift the iPhone caused in the mobile industry that is having an impact on mobile warriors.  Specifically, profit margins for mobile carriers have shrank as they subsidize smartphones to compete with ATT.

The likely impact of this is lower entry prices for mobile users looking to upgrade to a high end mobile device.  And specifically, Steve Jobs is looking to squeeze handset makers even more, probably with additional storage capability and price adjustments.

Apple wants to leave no "umbrella" room for its competitors.  With $25 billion in the bank, looks like they mean to do that.  Who wins?  You.  Me.  Dave the Mobile Warrior.

Obviously, the biggest news today is G1 officially goes on sale.  As you probably know by now, I've go mine a couple of days ago and I love Android.  G1, not so much.  Battery life sucks but hey, it's 3G.  Not complaining.  Just making a statement.  For more, head on over to On Android for my daily updates on my owner-experience.

Mobile Device Upate:

• As reported by ATT, Bold will be available for $300 on November 4th.
  
• Gizmodo talks about a special Firefox that uses multi-touch gestures on the Macbooks.  More here.  Must read.
• Mobile Royale on Opera running on PSP.
• Crunchgear on a hybrid handheld that runs XP and Windows Mobile.  $500?  My puny G1...oh, wait, it runs Android.  Feel better now.
• Phandroid offers biased comparisons between iPhone, Storm, and G1.
• Phone Report wants us to reacquaint ourselves with Xperia.  Wish the G1 looks like that.
• Gizmodo reports Blackberry app store...coming soon...oh jeez...March of 2009?!  Look at the terms.  See RIM's strategy?  No good for mobile warriors who arm themselves with Blackberries.  Yahoo News has more info along with Blackberry firmware update.
• Liliputing lists 31 netbooks for $399 or less.  If you use live.com search, you can get a lot them for less via 30% off on eBay.  Just thought you might want to know.
  
• Onxo looks into October mobile surprises.

Mobile Issues:

• World of Apple on ATT's 2.4M new iPhone users.
• Yahoo News on Nokia's to open Symbian.  Hoping that it'll work.
• Onxo thinks Sprint needs Android.
• Onxo wants wireless providers to have their own Christmas Carol moment.
• Onxo goes through mobile categories and see if we might have a happy Christmas.
• The Apple Blog thinks Apple is about the provide subsidized Macbooks.
  
• Onxo on AWS-3 saga continues.

Mobile Update for October 21, 2008

I don't want to dwell on earnings in Onxo but I have to say something about Apple's numbers today especial pertaining to its mobile numbers.

• 6.9 million iPhones served.  Compared to RIM who sold 5.4 million.  Very good numbers for both.  Just a better one from Cupertino.
• $4.6 Billion from Apple.  $2.1 Billion from Rim.  That comes out to about $667 per iPhone and $389 per Blackberry.  I know the numbers aren't that simple but just for comparison sake, they are what they are.
• Two hundred million apps to be served by iTunes app store tomorrow.  5,5K apps available, 11x times that of launch in June.
• No one asked about MobileMe today during financial call but just so we get that straight, it still sucks.  

As far as I'm concerned, Blackberries are still kind for anyone who is keeping scores.  These numbers are a snap shot of history through today.  There's a bit more to be made in the mobile war.  Google, Apple, RIM, and all the others can rest.  

More at On Apple.

Also, I've updated On Android  with shots and observations of my G1.  Please visit.  I'm provide an user-based review.  That means I'm receiving features as I use them.  No quickies.

The other news, which I don't like to bring to my fellow mobile warriors is Yahoo laying off 10% of its workforce.  I love this company.  I swear by it every day.  But man...weakening ads, increased competition, low morales...

Mobile Device Upate:

• Phone Report wants us to reacquaint ourselves with Xperia.  Wish the G1 looks like that.
• Gizmodo reports Blackberry app store...coming soon...oh jeez...March of 2009?!  Look at the terms.  See RIM's strategy?  No good for mobile warriors who arm themselves with Blackberries.  Yahoo News has more info along with Blackberry firmware update.
• Onxo - another telecom (this time in India) offers netbooks with wireless access.  I'm guessing US execs already did the numbers and find that it doesn't make financial sense.  Thanks for thinking country first.  Hope AWS-3 and white spaces kick their asses.
• Wired explained Google will have all the apps back tomorrow in time for the official launch.
• Liliputing lists 31 netbooks for $399 or less.  If you use live.com search, you can get a lot them for less via 30% off on eBay.  Just thought you might want to know.
  
• Onxo looks into October mobile surprises.
• RCR Wireless reports Firefox Mobile released.  Mobility Today reports new Opera Mobile beta released.
• Business Week has a report on Moto's Android plan.  See below on Mobility Today's post on MW woes.
• Engadget on MSI Wind - to get 3.5G integration in November.
• Another Macbook (aluminum) review.

Mobile Issues:

• Yahoo News  welcomes Sprint for coming, though late to the party.  Read why.  It has to do with termination fees.
• Onxo thinks Sprint needs Android.
• Onxo wants wireless providers to have their own Christmas Carol moment.
• Onxo goes through mobile categories and see if we might have a happy Christmas.
• TreoCentral reports on NY Times article questioning WM viability in an unforgiving mobile landscape where missteps give your competitors the opportunity to lead over you.
• The Apple Blog thinks Apple is about the provide subsidized Macbooks.
  
• Onxo on AWS-3 saga continues.
• Yahoo News on Symbian's open source future and hope.
• RCR Wireless reports teen market growth slows.  Either allowances are being with held or folks aren't having as many kids.
• Mobility Today thinks Windows Mobile is in trouble.

Tough Times May Lead To Great Deals

CNBC posed the question whether a souring economy will head to even better deals than what we've got in the last Holiday rush.  To keep factories and stores running, businesses have to keep consumer coming back for more.  Better gears.  Lower prices.  New jingles may help.

The problem is American consumers are scared and uncertain about their financial future or the direction this nation is headed.  Let's face the facts.  Here are some numbers from Gallup:

• 59% are worried about their financial future
• 78% consumer confidence
• 84% believes the economy will get worse
• 47% believes standard of living wil get worse, 34% believes things will improve

These are not good numbers if you're a business owner. But if you're out looking for stuff this Black Friday, you're in luck.  Let's look at each mobile category.

• Laptops - necessity but they'll be competing with Wind, EEE PC, and Mini Notes.  I've noticed a drop about 11% since the high of back-to-school with the values added (memory, HD space).  One of the thing I'm beginning to see a lot of pushing bigger screens for movies.  I have to say though the screens are bright and crisp.  But on the low-end, we'll see a lot of $400 laptops to compete with the netbooks.  Below $400?  It can happen with generic brands you find at Fry's.
• Netbooks - they're stuck at $400 for a while but some have already begun to crack it.  I've seen deals for as low oas $300 (retail around $450).  33% off.  No wonder Apple doesn't want to compete there yet.   Great deal if you're in the market for a simple easy to use machine.  Keep in mind, it's no laptop.  And if you do decide to pick one up, get one with a LED screen.
• Digital Cameras and Camcorders.  I  haven't taken a look at these lately.  Largely, because I have yet to find a reason to upgrade.  And this is an area where we might see a lot of great deals.  We're talking about consumers here.  Dave the Mobile Warrior.  Not a prosumer.  It's gotten complicated and the sector needs an iPhone-like shake-up.  Because of all the confusion, we may see a price drop.  And those 5MP cameras people picked up three years ago still work fine.  My Canon hi-def camcorder still works great from about two years ago.  
• MP3 players.  If you're not looking an iPod or Zune, there are deals now.  Once, MP3 players were locked behind glass cabinets are now just sitting in bins for the picking.  Style aside, these are great music players, san the multi-touching, social functions, or gaming.
• Mobile Devices.  There is definitely a possibility here.  Last year, we saw some wireless providers come out with some pretty good deals and I'm thinking, given the competition in the smartphone arena, we'll see some pretty good deals with Blackberries like the Curve.  Earlier, Sprint did well with promotion.  I'm guess others will follow.  Competition is fierce but for the top line devices, they'll be standing on their own merits.  I don't think we'll see price cuts coming to Storm, iPhone, Bold, or G1.  But then again with Sprint, I'm looking for them to pull something crazy with the data plan.
• Mobile Gaming.  DS and PSP.  It's going to be about bundles.  Typically, we won't see a lot of changes here.  With bundles, we'll see maybe a 5-10% saving.  Not a whole lot.  But that's taxes right there.  And while PSP is of the latest edition, DSi won't be available outside of Japan.  The iPod Touch will be mainly a media player, video and music.  It won't influence gaming or prices, if ever.

Already, you can get a jump on the rest of the herd by using live.com to save.  We've talked about it last week and we're very happy with our purchases.  Saving up to 30% on eBay is incredible.  Best of all, you don't even have to abandon your favorite search engines.  

Deals will start early to get the people excited.  We'll see things trickle out here and there from retailers.  Sort of like a taste of things to come.  Walmart will always bring its A-game.  Best Buy will try to knock out Circuit City one and for all.  

Amazon will do it's deal a day thing it always does.  eBay is hurting a bit so we'll see agressive promotions.  

Here's a tip:  sign up for newsletters from the etailers so you can get an early jump pricing and what's heavily promoted.

Link of Interest:  CNBC 

Mobile Update for October 20, 2008

I got my G1.  Look for my initial reactions tonight (tomorrow morning at On Android) and thorough review as I spend more time with it.  I can say this so far:  I'm excited, setup was easy, the location doesn't work well (I'll change locations and see if it gets any better), typing is difficult with the protrusion on the right hand-side.  Love the battery.  As in it's user-replaceable.   Apple, get with it!

But here's the biggest news of all today:  Apple and the Beattles have come together to create a limited edition iPod for $795.  Wow!

• Black iPod Classic
• 120GB
• Collector's Box
• 13 Original Beattles CDs, two Masters, Love CD
• Engraved guitar
• 2,500 units made
• $795
• Info:  Wired , Sold only at Bloomingdale's 

Mobile Device Update:

• Liliputing lists 31 netbooks for $399 or less.  If you use live.com search, you can get a lot them for less via 30% off on eBay.  Just thought you might want to know.
  
• Onxo looks into October mobile surprises.
• RCR Wireless reports Firefox Mobile released.  Mobility Today reports new Opera Mobile beta released.
• Blackberry Cool hands on with Storm.  Must read.
• Electronista on Moto's Android phone.  But I only got my G1 today...
• Business Week has a report on Moto's Android plan.  See below on Mobility Today's post on MW woes.
• Engadget on MSI Wind - to get 3.5G integration in November.
• Crunchgear on book industry's careful optimism regarding Kindle.
• Engadget on PSP 3000 hands-on.
• Of all the days to take down apps on Android Marketplace, Google does it the day I get my G1.  Engadet reports.
• Another Macbook (aluminum) review.

Mobile Issues:

• The Apple Blog thinks Apple is about the provide subsidized Macbooks.
  
• Onxo on AWS-3 saga continues.
• Yahoo News on Symbian's open source future and hope.
• RCR Wireless reports teen market growth slows.  Either allowances are being with held or folks aren't having as many kids.
• Mobility Today thinks Windows Mobile is in trouble.

User Review: HTC Touch (Verizon)

We like reviews.  But most of all, we like user-oriented reviews.  I mean reviews from users.  Not quickies.  Quick reviews give us a good idea but the nuances get lost.  And Only an user who works with it day after day can really tell us give us the experience of owning a specific mobile device.

This is a review for the Verizon's version of HTC Touch from Camerahacker.  You can tell that the reviewer took time to go through it for his readers.

It's a must read.  And you get a lot of details regarding the camera quality.  Love to see more about the actual operations though.

Source:  Camerahacker

Note:  Chieh Cheng, the operator of Camerahacker is my high school friend.

Oct-Nov Surprises for Mobile Warriors?

October surprises in an election are about last minute developments on the political, economic, or international stages that can change the course of history.  And elections.

Osama bin Laden may be found and brought to justice.  The DOW and housing recovering by the end of the week.  That would help Senator McCain.  Or should the polls narrow, Senator Obama may take actually change his middle name to "Steve" as he said at last week's fundraiser for the New York Archdiocese.

What about an October surprise for mobile warriors?  Perhaps even November?  Here some areas I think we want to watch out:

• Wireless providers - change plans to reflect the economic reality and to retain users from poaching other competitors with special mobile devices like the iPhone with ATT and smartphones like Storm with Verizon.  Most vulnerable here is Sprint of the Big Four.  T-Mobile is now armed with the G1.  That'll help a bit.  Not much I think.  Perhaps we might see another $10 knocked off the unlimited talk plan or more minutes for the rest of the folks.  I don't think we'll see anything happen with the texting plan, although that might help with the texting class action lawsuit the Four are embroiled in right now.  Surprises are possible.  

• Blackberry Bold.  ATT had a launch party for the Bold.  Except the Bold was not invited.  We might see it this week.  Pricing?  $199 will be more in line with fellow ATT device, the iPhone 3G.  This reminds me of a gymnastic competition.  You've got team competition:  ATT, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint going at it.  Then you've got the individual events.  Bold and the iPhone, on the same team, but going for the Gold.  Anyway, no surprise likely here.  

• Blackberry Storm.  Despite the iPhone success of late, I don't know how the momentum will hold up.  Lots of competition out there.  Not exactly like the MP3 market.  When people think smartphone, they still think Blackberries.  And they're still the one to beat as far as I'm concerned.  This Holidays, it won't be so much about BB versus the iPhone but BB versus BB.  More specifically, Storm versus Bold.  If you're in the market for a BB, you have to chose between the Storm, Curve, and the Bold.  Flip, manybe.  Ultimately, it's Storm with its new touch interface or Bold with its traditional QWERTY layout.  Storm will only need to compete not with the iPhone on price but with Bold.  The only surprise may be the price.  $99 would put an awful lot of press on the iPhone.  

• Nokia.  N-series with multi-touch?  No surprises here.  I'm hoping someone will pick up the N96 and provide subsidy but doesn't look like it's gonna happen.  The 5800 is cool except it doesn't have anything new except for the music subscription.  The surprise from Nokia more on the gaming front.  

• Windows Mobile.  None.  
• MP3 market.  None.

• Android.  None.  G1.  That's it.  

• Gaming market.  DSi and PSP 3000.  No surprises here.  We already know we won't be seeing the DSi outside of Japan this winter.  The Holiday line-up from Nintendo and Sony are done as far as portable gaming is concerned.  Both items are still hot but I think it's possible someone will lower the price.  I think surprises are possible with bundles.  New colors.  Could be wishful thinking on my part.  Nokia could pull something out but it's remote.  Maybe a new N-800 series with more serious gaming capability.  Okay, not really.

• Apple surprises.  Alright.  I'll continue after you stop laughing.  Apple is due to refresh the iMac and the Pro desktop line-up.  But seriously, there could be a surprise.  the Mac mini has been left for dead.  Look, the Apple TV may be a "hobby" but the Mac mini is the experiment gone wrong and Apple doesn't know what to do with it.  Given the lack of progress that we can see public with it, I'm willing to bet serious money that the mini may emerge as something that has both tradtional Mac functions and Apple TV's hackability and connectivity.  Sell it for the same price, put it together with the new Nvidia chipset, and you'll get yourself one of the hottest computer this Holiday.  Make sure you're willing to pay for this.  Surprise from Apple?  A remote one though.  This is definitely wishful thinking on my part. But it's not like we haven't seen it happen before.  Apple TV came out of nowhere if you recall.  Oh, one more thing:  no "Bricks", netbooks, or tablets.  But I hope I'm wrong!

• Netbooks.  Those morning, Buy.com is advertising the Aspire One from Acer for $310.  Retail for $500.  Despite the hotness of the computing category, competition is fierce.  Surprise?  Price drops!  Otherwise, hardware changes like to remain cosmetic or static.

Surprises?  I've got one more.  Subsidies.  With wallets thinning and getting lighter, tech giants will need to get shoppers more of a reason to go out this Holiday Seasons.  Subsidies to lock them into data, wireless, or other services to lower the initial cost of electronics could go beyond traditional handsets.  

So, I like to hear your October surprise.

Mobile Week In Review

We got new Macs and more importantly, there were some developments in wireless Internet that we brought to your attention.

The new Macbooks embodied new designs, new chipsets, and generated a lot of excitement among Mac users that was long overdue.  We didn't see the $800 Macbook that was a single rumor that did not have an ounce of support whatsoever.  Nevertheless, there was a lot of value added to the new line.

Issues We're Tracking:

• FCC approval of white spaces for mobile broadband
  
• Texting Lawsuit against wireless providers

Onxo Links:

• Onxo reports oDesk offer some mobile warriors jobs to be completed remotely.
  
• Onxo put together a bunch of review for G1 and Macbooks.  Day of Reviews.
  
• Evolution of iPod Touch
• Onxo recommends checking out cloud solutions to lower costs.
  
• Onxo on state of mobile war.  Part 2:  mobile devices versus laptops.
• Onxo profiles the needs of a political operative.
• Onxo on the coming trend of mobile device integration with cars.
• Onxo in the new Macbook's gaming potential.  It'll keep I think.
• Onxo in the economic pain.
• Onxo reports $1 billion reached in mobile gaming.  We think you ain't see nuthin' yet.
  
• Onxo on FCC's recommendation to go ahead with AWS-3 auction.
• Onxo wants you to get to know M2Z Network.  They're giving us free wireless broadband access.  Yeah, that's right...
• Onxo on books for regular cell phones with wireless access.
• Onxo thinks Apple is targeting enterprise users with aluminum Macbooks.  But make sure you say "aluminum" the way Jon Ives does it.  You'll have to watch the Macbook event to know what I'm talking about.
• Onxo believes Apple made great move with Nvidia integrated graphic solution
  
• Onxo on books for regular cell phones with wireless access.
  

Mobile Device Update:

• WM PowerUser on what's coming from NVidia's Tegra.
  
• RCR Wireless reports Simon And Schuster will make available more than 500 titles for mobile phones.  Titles include CSI, Star Trek, and Buffy.  Also "The Secret".  Read, America!
  
• Yahoo News on Google's Android kill switch

Mobile Issues:

• Daily Wireless on Nov 4th.  Guess who else is voting on Election Day?  The FCC.  On top;  Mergers, White Space, and the Universal Service Fund.
  
• CNet reports Verizon confident about their situation concerning economic downturn.  Must read.  CEO is right:  most folks will spend money on wireless and broadband services regardless of situation.  For now.
  
• Gizmodo breaks down mobile OS in terms regular mobile warriors can understand.  Must read.
  
• Liliputing on a report that mobile device sales will increase to $27 billion by 2013.
• Daily Wireless with John Cunliffe, Ericcson's tech officer on WiMax and LTE.  WiMax is puny, he says.  Said tests show a peak of 154Mbps/low of 16Mbps, a mean of 78Mbps.  Numbers real world subscribers will never see.
  
• Cunchgear :  China monitors all Internet cafe customers
  

Mobile Update For October 17, 2008

Lost in the shuffle of new Macs and T-Mobile's G1 already in the hands of some customers was FCC reporting the feasibility of white spaces to be used as wireless broadband.

And I don't know if devices will be available within the year as a Philips engineer declared, this is great news for all mobile warriors.  For the first time, a mean of mass communication will be taken out of the hands of cable companies, wireless providers, and folks who are protecting their own closed networks.

I'm not saying Google, Microsoft, and other members of the White Spaces Coalition will be better caretakers.  But at least, the wireless providers have not almost no say in how deployment takes place, what equipments may be used, and how subscribers may use it.

So, we'll keep a close eye on this and report back development as it happens.  Here are some links/updates you might be interested in:

• White Spaces
• White Spaces Coalition
• Wireless Innovation Alliance 
• Onxo on FCC's report for white spaces - it's a go!
• Yahoo News - FCC Says Go For It For White Spaces
• NYT :  Google Plan Would Open TV Band For Wireless Use
• CRN reports broadcasters asking for delay and hits FCC over white spaces.  More at PC Mag.

Now, regarding interference from white spaces device, that is a real possibility that should not be ignored.  However, broadcasters' fear should not stop research from going forward.  Perhaps not today but a month from now, a breakthrough may happen.  Bottom-line:  it's about competition.

Oh again, Macbooks this week (already available) and G1 devices shipping.  Just as I predicted, UPS hates me and I won't see mine until next week.

Mobile Devices Update:

• Gizmodo takes a look at Apple Tax.
• Liliputing compares Wind and EEE PC 1000H.  Wind blows!  That is, Blows EEE PC away.
• Gizmodo reports on Bandai's RPG pedometers.
• Onxo reports $1 billion reached in mobile gaming.  We think you ain't see nuthin' yet.
• Onxo put together a bunch of review for G1 and Macbooks.  Day of Reviews.
• Onxo thinks Apple is targeting enterprise users with aluminum Macbooks.  But make sure you say "aluminum" the way Jon Ives does it.  You'll have to watch the Macbook event to know what I'm talking about.
  
• Onxo on books for regular cell phones with wireless access.
  
• Yahoo News on Google's Android kill switch.
• UMPC Portal reports WiMax-ready N810 is now on sale for $443 after rebate.
• WM PowerUser on what's coming from NVidia's Tegra.
• GMS Arena has Xperia unboxing and pics galore.  Getting closer...closer...
• Onxo on evolution of iPod Touch
• Liliputing on a report that mobile device sales will increase to $27 billion by 2013.  

Mobie Issues:

• Cunchgear :  China monitors all Internet cafe customers
  
• Onxo reports oDesk offer some mobile warriors jobs to be completed remotely.
• Yahoo News on how rich Asians use their mobile devices.
• Onxo (Yahoo News) reports FCC endorses white spaces for wireless broadband use.
• Daily Wireless on Nov 4th.  Guess who else is voting on Election Day?  The FCC.  On top;  Mergers, White Space, and the Universal Service Fund.
  
• Onxo recommends checking out cloud solutions to lower costs.

Mobile Update For October 16, 2008

The biggest news, saddest too, is that UPS has received from T-Mobile shipping information but have yet to actually ship it to me.  May God strike them down, but only after they've delivered the G1 to me.

Mobile Device Update:

• Onxo put together a bunch of review for G1 and Macbooks.  Day of Reviews.
• Onxo thinks Apple is targeting enterprise users with aluminum Macbooks.  But make sure you say "aluminum" the way Jon Ives does it.  You'll have to watch the Macbook event to know what I'm talking about.
  
• Onxo on books for regular cell phones with wireless access.
  
• Yahoo News on Google's Android kill switch.
• News in the Blackberry world has been quite slow now that the Storm has passed.  Haha, I made a funny.  Blackberry Sync tells us how much the Bold and Curve really cost RIM to manufacture.
• BGR on Nokia's earnings and future plans.
• CoolSmartPhone on Windows Mobile running on iPhone.  I want Palm OS to run on the iPhone.
• Engadget reports G1 sales far from 1.5 million reported.
• Onxo believes Apple made great move with Nvidia integrated graphic solution.
• Wired (WSJ) on HP's touch-based laptops.

Mobile Issues:

• Onxo (Yahoo News) reports FCC endorses white spaces for wireless broadband use.
• Crunchgear on cell phones give folks rashes.
• Daily Wireless on Nov 4th.  Guess who else is voting on Election Day?  The FCC.  On top;  Mergers, White Space, and the Universal Service Fund.
  
• Onxo recommends checking out cloud solutions to lower costs.
• Electronista on top selling phones in September.  Not sure about how accurate this is since it doesn't include Apple Stores.  Oh well...

Mobile Update for October 15, 2008

The biggest news of the day:  I got an UPS tracking number for my G1.  Woohoo!  So, while I hope to get it by Friday, realistically, it ain't gonna happen.  I'm guess Tuesday...UPS doesn't like me much.  That's been my experience.

Okay.  Last Presidential debate tonight.  There won't be another for 4 more years.  And this one, unlike the first two, promises fireworks.  Newteevee has places where you can watch it online.

Mobile Device Update:

• Onxo in the new Macbook's gaming potential.  It'll keep I think.
• Onxo on books for regular cell phones with wireless access.
• Onxo thinks Apple is targeting enterprise users with aluminum Macbooks.  But make sure you say "aluminum" the way Jon Ives does it.  You'll have to watch the Macbook event to know what I'm talking about.
• Engadget wonders if new Macbook Pro is running Nvidia's Hybrid SLI due to high frame rates they're getting.  Update:  They're sure it's now but can't figure out why Crysis is getting such a boost on the MBP.
• UMPC Portal reports WiMax-ready N810 is now on sale for $443 after rebate.
• RCR Wireless reports on technology to block calls to motorists to avoid distraction.  My mom needs this.
• BGR says British Empire to get G1 on October 31th.
• 1Up has tips on how to do gaming during a recession.

Mobile Issues:

• Daily Wireless on Nov 4th.  Guess who else is voting on Election Day?  The FCC.  On top;  Mergers, White Space, and the Universal Service Fund.
• Daily Wireless reports on Nokia and LTE.  LTE hardware to be delivered by the end of 2008.
• Macworld reports netbooks poised to sell well during economic crisis.  By the way, we had another "End Day" type drop today.  A big "ouch" of 773 in the red.  Data shows recession.  
• Onxo on FCC's recommendation to go ahead with AWS-3 auction.
  
• Onxo wants you to get to know M2Z Network.  They're giving us free wireless broadband access.  Yeah, that's right...
• CNet reports Verizon confident about their situation concerning economic downturn.  Must read.  CEO is right:  most folks will spend money on wireless and broadband services regardless of situation.  For now.