Has Nokia Mounted A Smartphone Comeback?

By now, you probably know about the volleys of lawsuits lobbed against each other by Apple and Nokia.  During that time, it has kind of made Nokia out to be the bad guy but that all depends on which side of the fence you sit on.  And to be fair, I've heard a lot from the Apple side of things (well, their fans anyway).

But in the last quarter, Nokia not only retained its smartphone market share as expected but actually grew at a faster clip than Apple.  And it also gained 5 points in the smartphone market from 35% to 40% n the fourth quarter.  During that time, Nokia sold 52.4 million smartphone phones will Apple sold a less than expected 8.7 million iPhones.

Apple's market share  shrank in the quarter relative to everyone else.  So, my question is has Nokia turned the corner?  Perhaps and it depends on how you look at it.  Over all, Nokia sold more phones than it did a year ago but its revenue dropped 5%.

Well, Nokia is holding its own.  Furthermore, it appears that Nokia is getting its house in order as it was surprised the last couple of years by the gains made by Apple's iPhone, Blackberries, and, of late, Android devices.

Still, it has quite a ways to go.  It had to match Google's free mapping and navigation with one of its own and it's online store, despite having a larger installed base, isn't drawing the kind of success Apple's iTunes app store is.

But I've noticed a lot of rumblings from Nokia lately.  In addition to free Ovi Navigation (Nokia's answer to Google Maps and Navigation), Symbian is now free for distribution.  This puts Nokia squarely on a collision course with Google And Android.

Going forward, Android is likely to make a lot of gains in the market as the hardware and software matures.

Frankly, this is good for the mobile market in general as there is plenty of room to grow.  After all, Apple sold a record number of iPhones and the market still managed to outsell the best that Apple has to offer.

More at CNet, Wireless Week.

Future of Smartphones

I've got some thoughts in what I like to see in smartphones and mobile devices of the future. And right now, we are just at the beginning realizing the possibilities of what mobile computing is truly capable of. iPhone is the standard bearer at the moment even though it does not command a big share of the mobile device market.

However, I don't think Apple, Google, Nokia, or Palm has yet to decide on what mobile devices will be like 5 years from now. But these mentioned companies along with Microsoft, RIM, and others are still vying for position and trying to figure out where they all fit in. Clearly, there is no market leader in that sense.

I was listening to the latest Macworld podcast with Michael Gartenberg and I encourage anyone who is interested in the mobile market as a developer, mobile user, or just a tech fan to listen to it. It's a pretty fairly good assessment of where the market is at the moment.

One thing I like to point out about the podcast is the Android topic. They were right on with Microsoft, Symbian, RIM, and Apple but as far as Android, I have a different take on it.

Also, they predicted that there will be three dominant players at the end of the day, 3rd parties will remain critical, support for work and play are critical, and having a tightly integrated ecosystem is important.

More at Macworld:

• The future of smartphones

What's Going To Happen This Week? Some Random Thoughts

The last week, we were possessed by the Apple debacle with its app store.  I wonder what's up for the coming week.

I would have though by now, we would be hearing a lot of more about the Blackberry Storm 2 and what Microsoft may be coming up for its Windows Phone platform.  I think the sleeper here will be Microsoft.

If you recall last week (though Onxo didn't talk about it), Microsoft was attempting to recruit iPhone developers and showing them how to port their apps over to its new app store.  It'll be truly interesting to see how this all translates.  However, we are a 4 to 6 weeks from Microsoft unveiling its Zune HD.  Though I wouldn't have though it a year ago, but Microsoft better have some huge developer supporting it from the beginning or else, Zune isn't going to any further.  Right now, Zune sales and support has been a huge drain on Redmond's resources.  But I still believe...

At the same time, be prepared for more Apple tablet rumors.  Man, it's just not going to go away until the device is unveiled by Apple.  There are two schools of thoughts on this.  Some believe it will be coming, only the when is in dispute.  I'm in that camp.  Less probably are those who also believe these tablet rumors are mere Apple's insidious rumor-mill going into high gear to get competitors to waste millions on deverloping their own tablets that Apple already know will have no takers.  We'll see who's right in 2010 (that's when I believe it'll come out - though I'll gladly be wrong should it ship this fall instead).

The long-term view is, I believe, going to be on Android.  I think the second half will make or break Android as a viable mobile platform.  Though I'm not sure the iPhone has anything to worry about from Android, others will.  The iPhone's worst enemy will be Apple itself and it'll always have a core of supporters around the world.  However, Symbian, Blackberry, and Windows Phone will need to make great charges to stay viable.

Mobile Search

Yesterday, Apple unveiled the forthcoming iPhone 3.0 (san the hardware) that will be available this summer.

I'll get into a little of that here on Onxo and more at On Apple. However, I do want to stress one of the features that was stressed but hasn't really been picked up by the bloggers is search. Specifically, I'm talking about Apple's search feature for the iPhone called "Spotlight".

For those who have Macs, you use it very often. It's fast and easily one of the most indispensable features on the Mac OS. Now, it's available for the iPhone.

What struck me was how seamless it was to use as far as I can see from the demo. More significantly, it what Apple said Spotlight will do beyond searching on the iPhone. It'll go into the servers to get you the information you want.

That might not be too significant right now or even with 3.0. It might be a feature we'll be more familiar with when Apple's next OS, Snow Leopard, is available, also around summer.

The fact that search will go beyond the mobile device into the servers may be code for something larger. Could Apple be looking at search and testing out its own mobile searches? There is precedent for this from Apple.

The iPod Touch. ATT certainly did not see that coming. At least not so quickly after the original iPhone went on the market. Then last year, Apple added "recording" capability to the iPod Touch. When pressed, Apple execs said VOIP is certainly a possibility. Then again yesterday, we find out that 2nd gen iPod Touch will gain full bluetooth capability with iPhone 3.0.

As an Apple watcher, this gets better and better by the moment. As a mobile warrior, search by Apple opens up another front in the mobile war against Android, Nokia, WM, and RIM, which is a good thing for mobility in general. And how would these companies respond?

Google and Microsoft. Google has a lot to offer in search already. It's ahead of what Apple can bring to the market. Still it can't simple sit around. Google should at least be uncomfortable with what Apple might be planning. I'm sure it doesn't sit well with Cupertino as far as Android is concerned. Honestly, what's Google without search?

Microsoft has a great Windows Mobile 7 coming but I wonder if they'll need go add search just because of this. Redmond is still looking at Google and doesn't see the iPhone as a threat. Priorities are a bit different here.

For the rest of the market, they need to be concerned. They've got smartphone OS trying to be a mobile platform. That's a lot of work and requires a lot of resources. Apple and Microsoft can move a lot of their desktop weapons to the mobile war. That can't be said of Symbian or Blackberry OS.

It's just one front of the mobile war. Still, it may be a significant one.

Apple Competitors Tries to Catch Up At World Mobile Congress

Fortune provided a summary of what Apple's competitors are doing to help overcome Apple's innovative lead in the mobile market.  Whether you think this lead is perceived or real, most mobile warriors will agree that anything mobile these days will be compared to what Apple is doing with the iPhone or be compared to the iPhone.

The market falls largely into three segments: 

• folks who will buy anything Apple
• folks who will buy anything but Apple - but likes the iPhone, just not Apple
• folks who want a good mobile device

With the above said, it stands to reason that while there are innovations going on outside of Cupertino (shocking, eh?), Apple seems to have the pole position these days.  You don't see many posts or articles on Storm killer now, do you?

So, at Barcelona, many mobile providers and device makers used the Mobile World Congress to lay out their strategies:

• Nokia:  with their Ovi store, they will create social-centric applications that leverage their huge installed base.  Media will be part of their emphasis.  Also, Skype will come pre-installed on many Nokia phones in the 3rd quarter.
• Android Marketplace:  Google started accepting paid apps this week but since the debut of the G1, it was all free apps only.  Users were subjected to beta status (my opinion that is widely shared by many users).  There was a belated update a couple of weeks ago but until we see what apps are available, we can't give a proper opinion at this time.  Also, Google will allow users to ask for their money back within 24 hours of buying an app if they are not satisfied.  However, if you want the money back, you'll need to get it from the developers.  And you will have to use Google Checkout.  In a way, it's a free for all so that will be interesting to watch.
• Palm Pre: very little information at this time.  It'll be difficult for Palm to differentiate itself from what its users are used to now.  It's like there won't be one but multiple store fronts for users to choose from.  Music will come from Amazon.
• Symbian: This is an interesting one.  With Nokia coming out with Ovi, will Symbian apps be folded into the Ovi store?  How about 3rd stores like Pocketgear that has largely supported Symbian effort?  
• Blackberry Applications Center: very little is known about it at this time.  Despite all the attention the iPhone is getting, RIM sells more units than Apple and that's a good thing for RIM.  By virtue of its installed base in the smartphone market, they're still the ones to beat.  And should RIM come out with a creative store, watch out.
• Microsoft: been in this business for years.  Apple made the app store easier to use but Microsoft has just as many apps as the iPhone's app store.  Can't wait to see the two go at it.I'm talking about iPHone 3.0 and windows Mobile 7.

While the Fortune article largely forgotten about T-Mobile and the other mobile providers, I haven't.  Yeah, our gatekeepers.  It's difficult to say what the dynamics and relationships they will have with device makers and the customers.  In the past, the wireless providers ruled the market.  

They say jump, and we ask whether it's a cliff or bridge they want us to jump off of.  Today, that has changed.  A year ago, no phone maker would think about creating their own app stores and services separately from the providers.  So until these app stores actually open and the services in effect, we can't say how much weight the wireless providers will have in selling their own apps and services.

My hope is one in which each platform will have multiple stores to choose from.  Of course, that'll never be the case with the iPhone.  

I believe we're just seeing the beginning of another jump in mobile computing and services.  Once all the stores are out there, mobile warriors will likely witness another leap in innovation for app distribution, communications, and services.  There's always be a leader others are trying to catch up to.

Via Fortune, Macrumors

ATT's Ludicrous "I Have A Dream Moment"

Last week, ATT said they wanted an unifying mobile OS that would run all their mobile phones.  Onxo did not bother to post about it because my felllow mobile warriors would want to know what I'm smoking, where they can get some, and if ATT is smoking the same stuff.

Boy Genius Report has offered a clarification to their post.  Be that as it may, the motive behind ATT's goal for the one OS "to rule them all" remains the same as that of Mordor:  control.  Essential this is what they want:

• Realizing that they have ceded a lot of control to Apple, they decided the only way  to get it all back is if they can force users to use one environment.  This goes the same for developers. 
• With one OS that they have 100% control over, ATT  can dictate terms.  How to use it, what to use it with, and how much one can use it.
• ATT can't be happy the hundreds of millions Apple is making off iTunes.  Execs at ATT are thinking that should be their money.    And $1 for  a song.  They want to chrage $2,  $3, or maybe $5 per song.  Like in the old days.  And why share anything with Blackberry.  Those user subscriptions should also be theirs.  It's their wireless network after all.
• By being able to dictate terms to developers and content providers, ATT can ask for a piece of every pie sold through their network.  App sales.  Advertising.  Search.  You name it, ATT wants a percentage of it.
• ATT has indicated in the past they should be the gate keepers to protect users.  Now, they are saying users don't want complications of high-end mobile devices.  Dude, what are these guys smoking. 

Clarification or not, one thing is clear:  ATT also realize this vision they are looking is impossible to realize.  Mobile warriors are savy, they have clear needs, and we don't want wireless providers to say what we can use or how we can use it. 

I'm grateful that iPhone and Android are here to stay.  I hope other handset makers and mobile platform developers learn from the last couple of years and stop capitulating to these wireless guys. 

Source:  BGR

Note:  To all Symbian fans out there, I'm sorry ATT mentioned you as their mobile plastform of choice for what they think are dumb users who don't want high-end stuff.  You should be wondering why.

Another note:  Apple is very limiting as well.  They are their own gatekeepers for the iPhone. 

Nokia Drops New Devices For Holiday Seasons

A bit late.  Very late.  Nokia's N97 is looking like a winner, if an expensive winner.  And from the preliminary specs, we are looking at potential (dare I say?) Blackberry-and-Danger killer.   Haha, you thought I was going to talk about that other mobile device.



32GB of internal storage with additional memory slot.  Dude, this is one bad-ass mobile device.  And to top it off, 5MP camera, touchscreen (probably not multi-touch).  Going for about $700 in the Euro zone, it'll be available on the first half of 2009.  It's not something the iPhone, Android, Blackberry fans need worry about this certainly gives Symbian/Nokia fanboys something to cheer about finally.

Source:  Electronista

Note:  iPhone still the top.  Mobility is about simplicity and nothing beats the iPhone at this time.  However, Nokia's new device certainly come close to being the killer on paper.  We'll have to see how it really plays out.

Impact:  For mobile warriors of all favors, it is great to see Nokia in the game and strong.  Innovation, competition, and possibly lower price entries for sophisticated devices on 2009.  I love it.

RIM (probably Apple): No Open-Sourcing For Us

CNet blogged that while RIM is looking into open-sourcing, it is not about to happen.  If at all.

The main issue is the business model.  Apple has invigorated the mobile market with its innovative iPhone and other companies may find it difficult to keep up in the long run.  Apple has indicated it plan on using it's $25 billion war-chest to put more distance between it and its competitors.  I suppose they've got a point there.  But even with open-souce, software aside, there is the hardware development that can't exactly be open sourced, right?  Outsourcing may be a different matter but there is no short-cut around hardware development that each handset maker must do on their own.

What a successful open source community does bring is numbers.  However, the danger is fragmentation that can occur.  One of the initial concern for Android was just this.  However, with a close eye on the project and a lot of support from Google, it will have a big chance of not only succeeding but avoid having different versions of Android running on twenty different phones.  This is the same for Symbian.

So far, I don't see this happening to Android.  It's likely Google will keep it on a very short leash.  What will be interesting is to see how different various forms and inputs that will crop up as more handset makers develop for the Android.  In time, Android will support multi-touch.  If a developer creates an app that is optimized for multi-touch, how will phones that do no support such gestures be handicapped?

Regardless of concerns, the Google is likely very content with the reception Android has received.  All it needs now are good phones to work with.  We will have to see if Symbian is afforded the same kind of reception.

As for Apple, don't bet on it.  In fact, Safari, based on Webkit, is an open-source project and that's as far as Cupertino will likely go for now.

Link of interest:  CNet

Wireless Providers Needs a Scrooge Moment

In the past, I've said that Android isn't an open system because of the constraints that wireless providers put on handsets.  Of course, that goes for everyone (maybe except Apple.  I'm sure there'll be some form of restrict at play).  Symbian, Linux, Palm, and WM.

I was playing with Android and looking for apps that are  no longer on the Android Marketplace to install and I realized there are a lot of things these little computers can do if we are only allowed to do them.

So with the Holidays already here (I've seen the Christmas decorations at Osh), let's pick up on Christmas Carol.  Let's assuming the Scrooge-like wireless providers had an encounter with ghosts of wireless past, present, and future.

And they see a future in which all networks are open and competition if fostered by variety, great services, and fast wireless broadband.  Wireless providers are not dumb pipes but equal partners in commerce, entertainment, and enterprise.

That is the time to get Android.  That's is the time where Symbian and Windows Mobile shine.  See, right now, we're locked into what we can't do on the networks.  We'd have to scurry around and look for  Wi-Fi networks to do any of that.

I created "Dave the Mobile Warrior" yesterday.  Dave is going to have to limit what he can do for his work because wireless providers won't allow him to show his client a video presentation on the spot.  That's not right.

Anyway, where may be help on the way.  We have white spaces (FCC may delay vote on it) and AWS-3 that can be made into a national wireless broadband network that will allow Daves across the country do truly innovate, compete, and play.

Apps May Be Bigger Than Anyone Is Anticipating

It's been reported in the latter days of last week on at Apple's "Let Rock" event over 100 million apps have been downloaded since the debut of the iTunes app store.

100 Million apps and sustaining a monthly download of 70 million apps, folks are equating this to a growing number is not going to stay constant in the coming months.  With the rush of new iPod Touches and additional iPhones soon available in additional countries, that 70 million download figure will have to be revised upward in the coming months.

So, developers.  Pay attention.  If you've got a decent app and some programming kung fu, you could be a part of a very big digital gold rush.  So far, we are seeing this phenomenon with iTunes and iPhone.  Once other apps stores for Google's Android and Microsoft's Skymarket go online, we can see growth increase beyond what we are seeing with the iPhone now.

A number of people who watching this are comparing this app number to the music figure for the iTunes.  It's estimated at this time, the app growth is twice the rate of iTune's music growth.  It took two years for iTunes to reach one billion while current model finds that that app downloads will reach that in half the time.  I'm thinking this will happen sooner as the iPhone and iPod Touch software becomes more stable and users more comfortable with their devices.

Truth is, you ain't see nothing yet.

These app numbers for the iPhone, in my judgement, is small compared to what we will be talking about a year from now.   And this is fantastic news.  With smartphones and mobile platform devices expected to grow by double digits for years to come, a developer can potentially see riches even participating in one app store with a good app.

On tap next in the app store biz is Google's Android to be follow by Microsoft's Skymarket for Windows Mobile 7 in 2009.  Other device makers have also pledge to develop their own app stores.  Of course, app growth with these new stores is not simply going to get iPhone app growth overnight.  There are will have a number of factors involving the types of stores and how accessible the stores are.

Take T-Mobile's app store which Onxo think will run into a number of problems given the protective nature of wireless providers.  Essentially, you'll have Google's Android store on one extreme with almost no restriction and T-Mobile-like app store on the other end that seems to purposely shun and handcuff what developers can creatively do.

We will not pretend to guess what the growth rates are going to be next month or even the day after Christmas but app store operators, be it Apple or Google, better be ready for the rush of new users trying to fill their new mobile devices with games, social or productivity apps.

Note:  Here's the reason why many online analysts are using iTune's music numbers and the iPhone app numbers.  Right now, there's only one app store of it's kind, and it's for the iPhone.  And since iTunes command a large chunk of digital music downloads, the comparison of these two figures is understandable.

But I do see this change over time especially if people want to talk about app growth at large versus just iPhone app growth.  In addition, look for people to compare app growth between iPhones, other mobile mobile platforms, and smartphones.

Related Onxo posts:

• Wireless providers hope we're too stupid to realize they only want control.
  
• Creating an app store ecosystem.  How this matters to providers and mobile users.
• Free apps!  Let them run on PCs and Macs.
• Microsoft's Skymarket.

Apple's NDA on SDK: An Opening For Others To Shine

Does anyone know the reason why Apple is still imposing the NDA after the iPhone SDK is now out of beta and the App Store is working cheerfully?

In this Los Angeles Times article about developer suffocation at the hand of Apple, this particular control is even beyond anything that has come out of Apple in recent memory.  Personally, I am waiting for books on the iPhone SDK to be release and, as LAT indicated, publishers are afraid they'll get the dark suits from Cupertino knocking on their doors with law suits.

One likely possibility is that there are things Apple is working on and they have not quite finished yet.  Basically, we're still in some sort of beta program and until Apple has all the i's dotted and t's crossed, the power that be at Apple has decreed no one will have the ability to talk about it.

However, this could be the opening other smartphone makers should welcome.  One of the early concerns was that Apple and iPhone was going to attract developers to its platform.  By declaring to be more open, it could be just enough to woo developers who previously only develop for the iPhone.

After all, Android, Symbian, and a couple of other Linux flavors are all open source projects.  Google has a tight control on Android but all these platforms can make the most of this opportunity to pour more effort in attracting more publishers and programmers.

Make no mistake.  This NDA will end and Jobs' RTF will take over once more.

Note:  $1.  According to the MacObserver, developers are subcontracting themselves to each other for $1 to get around the NDA.

Android: gPhone is 80% Done

We know Android is coming before the end of the year. It has been promised over and over again. Every time a rumor would pop up, forcing Google or its phonemaker-in-chief make a statement to the contrary. Now we know it's 80% complete as reported by Information Week (Via MocoNews, Engadget). 

This number came about after Eric Chu, a group marketing manager for the Android effort, said Google will not be joing the LiMo, Linux Mobile Foundation, especially during the development phase of Android. As of today, there are no Android phones on the market as to be expected given that its a relatively new effort. LiMo has accounted for twenty-one phones with more on the way.

Chu attributed to the complexity of building a mobile phone and working with developers are the reason for going at it alone with Android. Involving too many during this phase may not necessarily be helpful, according to Chu. In addition, he stated recent changes in the mobile platform industry as a factor in Google believing it can do better. 

While the iPhone is certainly one of those changes in the last year, Nokia decision to release Symbian to as an open-source project certainly weighs heavily on Google and its allies. But what it really comes down to is control and the ability carry out a vision and it's a lot easier to do that as the Android's founder.

A bit of analysis. Forget about tying an Android phone into any kind of network launch like T-Mobile's 3G service. Eighty percent complete. If this estimate is close, one begs to ask just how far along the hardware integration is. In addition, is Chu talking about the OS only or is he also talking about the app store as well? Remember, the iPhone did not have an app store during its first year either. In fact, no one else but the iPhone platform has anything like this.

It's now the beginning of August. To make the Christmas rush, phones would need to be in the stores by November at the very latest. This give a phone maker like HTC only a couple of months to get the phones manufactured and shipped. But then, neither Google or HTC promised the gPhone will be sitting under the Christmas tree. But as long as it's in the stores before January 1, 2009, it's a win.

Note: Google is betting more than anyone else on Android to succeed as Apple did with the iPhone. Onxo is not going to make one of those "if anyone can do it, it's Google" comment. But they better or else, the loss of their creditability and agendas for the mobile market will be largely diminished. 

Expect more to come from Google. This is going to start buzzing on the Internet. 80% done does not sounds like good news. 

Impact: Mobile Warriors, listen, up. We want Google to succeed. So much as been put on their shoulders, some of it their own fault and some of it ours for believing that Google will have a positive impact on wireless industry and change how we working and play wirelessly. There are other positive influences like the iPhone but still, Google is a large part of the mobile future.

Nokia Buys Out Symbian consortium and Give It Away For Free

What's the impact on mobile warriors? Well, giving Symbian away for free is not likely going to lower the price of the mobile device by much.

However, Nokia will position Symbian as a strong alternative to Windows Mobile and try to fight tide of Blackberry dominance and upstarts from little known companies like Apple (yeah, a company named after a fruit).

Overtime, we may see greater competition which will likely lead to better software, higher quality phones, accelerated research developments, and potentially lower prices.

For software developers, look for a SDK along the line of what Apple did for the iPhone and Nokia digging into its pocket changes for millions in development help for anyone who wishes to create software for the Symbian.

For consumers, the prospect of greater competition is what a free market is all about. I agree with the conventional thinking that the smartphone market can have many winners and the consumers ought to be one of them.

Personally, this is the rabbit that I have been expecting from Nokia. But it's only a bunny they've got. They need to create excitement the way Apple did with their SDK.

Potentially great news for mobile users.

Here's a list of the major players in the mobile smartphone arena (let me know if I missed anyone):

• iPhone (OS X) - Look out. Apple has a vision and they look deep into the future. I'm very excited. Cost of OS is neglible.
  
• Palm - new OS due in 2009, this century.
  
• Window Mobile - Mobile 7 is going to be make-or-break
  
• Android - also free
  
• OpenMoko (I'm hoping they'll be a major player) - promised new phones in July, OS is free.
  
• Blackberry - with a target on its back, it has to innovate quickly. They don't have the deep pocket Nokia and Microsoft has. I see them having the same problem Palm had if they rely only on e-mail.
  
• Symbian - OS now free.
  
• Linux (I think Nokia has a winner with the N tablet series)
  

One question I've got is what will the N800 platform be like?