RIM In Conflict With Carriers Over Where To Store NFC Data, How About Device Makers?

Supposedly, RIM is butting heads with some GSM carriers over where near field communication data, NFC, would be stored. The bottoms here is who will have control over the customer, the data, and what promises to be a very lucrative revenue stream for both carriers and device makers.

NFC capabilities will increasingly become available in not just smartphones but regular cell phones as well. This NFC is important for mobile payments. And billions in transactions will be made this way.

Gone may be the credit cards. So who will win this fight? And where does Apple's closed iOS system and Google's Android fit in all this?

More at Greejava.

Tablet Today: Where Is HP and Dell?

Everyone know that HP and Dell are the two biggest PC makers in the world. And while the PC market is not going anywhere (I happen to like laptops and think the future continues to be bright), there are additional facets to the mobile computing market. And laptop computing is being encroached upon.

Mobile devices like the iPhone and tablets are coming up fast. And in these two markets, HP has not made much of a splash and Dell barely dipped its toe in it. So, the question I posed is where do these two successful veterans of the PC market fit in the smartphone and tablet markets?

Is There Room For Web OS In 2011 - Maybe Not

Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 (WP7) did not sell one million units its first weekend but Microsoft cannot afford to cede the mobile market to Apple or Google. And it has the staying power and deep deep pocket to win marketshare if not necessarily the hearts and minds of users.

With WP7 already having an app store already rivaling HP's Web OS in terms of numbers of apps, is there room for Web OS in the market anymore?

Has Nokia Mounted A Smartphone Comeback?

By now, you probably know about the volleys of lawsuits lobbed against each other by Apple and Nokia.  During that time, it has kind of made Nokia out to be the bad guy but that all depends on which side of the fence you sit on.  And to be fair, I've heard a lot from the Apple side of things (well, their fans anyway).

But in the last quarter, Nokia not only retained its smartphone market share as expected but actually grew at a faster clip than Apple.  And it also gained 5 points in the smartphone market from 35% to 40% n the fourth quarter.  During that time, Nokia sold 52.4 million smartphone phones will Apple sold a less than expected 8.7 million iPhones.

Apple's market share  shrank in the quarter relative to everyone else.  So, my question is has Nokia turned the corner?  Perhaps and it depends on how you look at it.  Over all, Nokia sold more phones than it did a year ago but its revenue dropped 5%.

Well, Nokia is holding its own.  Furthermore, it appears that Nokia is getting its house in order as it was surprised the last couple of years by the gains made by Apple's iPhone, Blackberries, and, of late, Android devices.

Still, it has quite a ways to go.  It had to match Google's free mapping and navigation with one of its own and it's online store, despite having a larger installed base, isn't drawing the kind of success Apple's iTunes app store is.

But I've noticed a lot of rumblings from Nokia lately.  In addition to free Ovi Navigation (Nokia's answer to Google Maps and Navigation), Symbian is now free for distribution.  This puts Nokia squarely on a collision course with Google And Android.

Going forward, Android is likely to make a lot of gains in the market as the hardware and software matures.

Frankly, this is good for the mobile market in general as there is plenty of room to grow.  After all, Apple sold a record number of iPhones and the market still managed to outsell the best that Apple has to offer.

More at CNet, Wireless Week.

Mobile Summary - What's Been Happening In the Mobile Market

Things are moving very fast in the mobile world right now.  So, here is a brief summary of things that I've kept up with.

Android

• Android seems to be making a huge run for a chunck of the mobile users.  I haven't seen this kind of excitement in a platform with the number of different gears out there since the early days of Windows CE.  Even Dell, a traditional Redmond ally, is entering the mobile market with Android.  
• Droid is kicking up a lot of dust.  At who, well, that's hard to say now.  Though I don't like the keyboard or the boxy design, I like everything else about it.  Bigger screen than the iPhone with a whole lot more resolution.  And it's thinness is something worth noting.  All that without sacrificing battery life. Also, it runs Android 2.0.
• I recently rooted my G1 for tethering and installing Google Navigation.  I think this is why Android has such a large following.  Smart smart folks involved and it is more open than the iPhone will ever be.  Of course, that's both good and bad.

Windows Mobile

• I'll be honest here and say I don't know what's going on.  I know the HTC's HD2 is out.  But no WM 7 or Zune integration.  On the other hand, Zune gaming is looking good this week with additional 3D games.  As an Apple fan, I am contemplating getting a Zune HD just to see what the big deal is.  Yeah, I'm a gear lover.  I'll still be getting iPhones, Macbooks, etc. 

Palm Pre

• After the iPhone, I'd get the Pre.  Right now, the Android devices are underpowered and new gears won't be out until 2010 with better insides.  Today, Palm's stock price jumped on rumors that Nokia is looking to take it off the market.  I don't know if Nokia wants WebOS but with a bunch of former Apple guys with access to NOkia's deep pocket and treasure, wow, this would be better than if Dell picked up Palm.

iPhone Platform

• Not a good few weeks.  Okay, iPhone demand continues to be strong.  Shortages and stuff like that.  Except in China where today, it has sold 30K in about two weeks.  Orange managed that in one day.  But then, I wouldn't get a crippled iPhone either (no Wi-Fi in China).  
• Oh, and even as it provides a tool for developers to see how their app is doing through the approval process, Apple is facing a new revolt of sort
• There are now 100,000 apps with over two billion downloads.  
• Still waiting on the iTablet. Lots of blog chatters about Apple trying to save the print realm.  

ATT Versus Verizon

• This is interesting.  You know those 3G commercials?  Verizon is doing the same thing that Apple has being doing to Microsoft with the "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" campaign.  Alright, maybe VW took some liberty at how it wants to influence potential customers or VW customers looking to jump ship to join ATT.  ATT has decided it would have none of it no more and has sued VW to make them take off the commercials and for damanges.  ATT has a lot to lose as it is rumored that they will lose their iPhone exclusivity in 2010.
• ATT issued a memo disputing VW's claims.  More at electronista.
• Again, the commercial is pretty good for its entertainment value.

Nintendo

• It's never enough.  Nintendo is a cash machine but apparently, it's never enough in a capitalist society.  So, what happened?  Well, I'm thinking the economy has more to do with it but news and blogs are saying it has more to do with the iPhone.  Okay, maybe some but not all of it.  Still, it's been a while since I've bought a Nintedo handheld and I won't be getting it until it's like the DS 2 or something.  The next version of DSi will have bigger screens.  Let's hope that Nintendo decides to bring more than just that.  The iPod Touch is not completing with the DSi or PSP directly because it can do so much more.  But because it can do so much more and by the sheer installed base, it is getting a lot of attention from traditional gaming outfits.  It'll be interesting to see how Nintendo responds.  We already Know Zune is going into Windows Mobile and Xbox mobile gaming is likely just around the corner.  Maybe Nintendo should buy out Palm and add DS gaming to it?  What do you think?
• Crunchgear doesn't think Nintendo needs to worry about Apple right now.  Not yet.  I agree, for now.  Nintendo, with the recent price cut to the Wii is going into the important Holiday Season with more sales than Xbox, PSP, or PS 3.  

Google

• See the above Android section.
• Google just bought Gizmo5.  VOIP with Google Voice.  Match made in mobile heaven.  This is interesting because there were talks that Skype was interested in Gizmo5 until eBay, Skype, and the former owners of Skype settled their disagreement.  Imagine how this works out.  Android devices requiring only data access and calls via VOIP.  
• More on the Gizmo5 buyout:  Daily Wireless, CNet
• With the purchase of Gizmo5, look out for blogs and news reports about exploding VOIP markets.  Folks will be jumping on the bandwagon about it.  Take it easy.  Skype isn't going to sit this out.  But love to see Google Voice go at it with Skype.  An Edison-Tesla type of brawl in our time.
• Chrome OS is coming a lot nicely.  We should see it in the next few weeks.  
• While we're on Google, CNet has an interview with Google's CEO and made a claim that Docs will be just as good as Office.  About the Docs statement, I don't use OpenOffice for the same reason I don't use Docs as much.  You want to rival Office?  Check out Numbers from Apple.  Go ahead and copy it, Google.  Microsoft said it copied OS X.  So that's okay.

RIM/Symbian/Others

• This week, it was reported that phone sale growth resumed in the third quarter of 2009.
• 45 Million smartphones shipped worldwide,  representing a 5% growth. More if you're willing to pay $7000 for the rest of the report at Strategy Analytics.  Yeah, this is all I need to know.
• Here is a table lifted from IntoMobile.  Nokia is number one, followed by RIM and Apple.  Apple with just two models (and two various of the 3GS) may put a hurt on others next year.  Nokia is in the pole position with 39.3%.  RIM has 20.8% (great growth) with Apple trailing at 17.1%.  No one has has double digit marketshare or growth except folks in the "others" category.  
• Nokia, mentioned above, in looking to snatch Palm off the market, according to Barron's.  

Here's my thought in all of this.  The ideal situation is each of the mobile giants have an equal share of the market.  That way, it keeps them all honest and their innovation engines running high.

So, this has been what's going on the last couple of weeks in mobility.

Nokia And Sony Ericsson - Can They Return To Prominence?

My initial intention was to try talking about Nokia and Sony Ericsson with the mention of the you-know-what that has a fruit for its corporate symbol.

Nokia just recently posted a loss of nearly $850 million while Sony Ericsson faired a bit better but still doesn't seem to have an answer to get back into the black. The public line is the economy. And while Sony Ericsson did fare a bit better than what analysts were expecting, it was still not the same thing as actually announcing a positive earnings.

I've long ago given up hope of trying to understand corporate reporting as allowed by regulatory agencies but that's now the issue here. Others in the industry have managed to do well despite the depressed global economy. So, how are Nokia and Sony Ericsson different from say RIM and Apple's mobile offerings?

The main difference I see here is the lack of a cohesive mobile plan on the part of Nokia and Sony Ericsson. Just ask Motorola. It's difficult to see how Nokia plan on turning things around but folks like Sony and Motorola are moving away from Windows Mobile to Android to power their devices and hoping that will solve their problems.

Still, it is difficult to ascertain if that will work as planned. The differentiating factor between Android and Windows Mobile (WM) is that both platforms have different backers and that Android is open source and free while WM is Microsoft's offering and isn't free. And as Android devices flood the market, there won't be much in terms of differentiation among themselves.

In essence, many of these companies using Android will not be able to differentiate themselves other than adding their own proprietary skins to run on top of Android. The underlying operating system remains the same. Not only will Android devices in the future have to contend with Palm, WM 7, Blackberry OS, and others, they will have to compete among themselves.

Sony will need to fend off HTC, Samsung, Motorola, and other Android hardware developers.

However, Nokia stands to have a better chance than Sony Ericsson since it offers its own mobile platform. The only thing that's lacking from Nokia is a mobile vision for its users and prospective mobile users.

Obviously, time will tell. We'll know into 2011 where things stand. By then, Android devices will be in their second or third generation hardware and OS improvements. We'll know if Sony Ericsson and others who chose to back Android was the right decision. And even as the smartphone market continue to grow and adoption accelerates in an improving global economy, it will be interesting to see if Nokia is able to hold its fort against the onslaught of smaller innovative mobile players.

More Robust Streaming On the Way? Good For Streaming Videos Wirelessly

The summer, aside from headlines dominating the release of the iPhone 3GS and Pre, Android devices flooding the market, and Microsoft's ineptitude to mount any kind of comeback in the wireless world, is FCC's interest in exclusive deals such as the one between Apple's iPhone and ATT.

The side-effect of that interest is the FCC asking questions about why Google Voice app for the iPhone was rejected.  This likely came about from the attention bloggers gave to the few developers whose apps were also rejected by Cupertino.  Justify or not, Apple's actions is in the crosshair of the government.

Perhaps, it's why a flood of apps that we might perceived as threats to Apple (their favorite line for rejecting apps is duplication of iPhone functions and anything that might confuse iPhone users) such as those from Rhapsody and Spotify (which I enjoy immensely thanks to Dave the Mobile Warrior) were allowed into the iTunes app store.

And perhaps it's why flood of apps approved today such as CNN's app that allows live video stream, mSpot's movie rental app (more at On Apple) that also allows streaming video, and EyeTV app into the app store.

Of course, we'll never know if attention from the FCC has anything to do with approval of above mentioned apps.

But I like to offer another theory.  Perhaps, ATT's network might be more robust now.  After all, they spent the summer beefing up their network for the flood of MMS service, not to mention that they'll have to gear up for the inevitable wireless tethering service as well.

And whatever reasons we believe ATT, Apple, or other app stores and providers might reject this app or that app, the direction we're headed is clear.  Apps that provide streaming video cannot be hindered for competitive reasons and wireless providers have no choice but to continue to beef up their networks to satisfy this particular need of their users.

Over on Apple, I'm especially excited about mSpot's app being approved because it bolds well for two video streaming services that I know millions of mobile users are particularly interested in:  Hulu and Netflix.

To be sure, talks between these Netflix and Hulu and Apple have taken place and development on these respective apps are going forward.  How do I know that?  For the same reason I mentioned above.  Streaming video services are coming to wireless devices.  No amount of feet dragging will stop that from happen.

And if for some reason, Apple is bold enough to keep Hulu and Netflix apps from being approved, I'm sure RIM, Palm, Nokia, Android (Google's wireless OS) and Microsoft will be happy to welcome those two apps into the ranks of their app store.

Back to wireless networks.  WiMax continues to be built and introduced into new markets by Sprint and Clearwire.  Verizon Wireless will follow up with their LTE network while ATT and T-Mobile beef up their 3G networks.  As wireless capacity expand and come online, there really is no excuse that streaming video from services like Netfix and Hulu should be allowed on them.

More about mSpot and chances of other apps that offer streaming videos at On Apple.

Microsoft: If You Can't Beat Them, Then...You Know

Looks like Microsoft is enlisting help in the mobile war.  This time, it is working with mobile leader (in terms of marketshare) Nokia by adding Microsoft's office suite on its smartphones.

Does the deal make sense?  According to WSJ's reasoning, it does since both companies, with plenty in their mobile arsenal but aren't really doing to well with smaller and more agile competitors like Apple's iPhone and Google's Android, can look to combine their forces and muster up some kind of response.

Nokia with its marketshare and armed with Microsoft's mobile Office suite could be just the thing.  If not in the minds of the consumers, it should make CIOs in the corporate world take another look at Symbian devices.

Will this work?  Only time will tell.  It is perfect timing as Apple and Google seems to be going their separate ways.  This, at the very least, is welcoming news to Nokia and Microsoft.  They'll use each other to beef up their positions (Symbian devices and WM 7).

I wonder if there could be more.  It would be completely find for Nokia to use Windows Mobile in a phone or two.  But more than that, Microsoft can really do Google some damage if Nokia will use Bing as the default search engine on its phones.

We'll know soon enough tomorrow.  I'm hoping Bing will be a big part of tomorrow's announcement.

Source:  CBS Marketwatch, WSJ

Mobile Search

Yesterday, Apple unveiled the forthcoming iPhone 3.0 (san the hardware) that will be available this summer.

I'll get into a little of that here on Onxo and more at On Apple. However, I do want to stress one of the features that was stressed but hasn't really been picked up by the bloggers is search. Specifically, I'm talking about Apple's search feature for the iPhone called "Spotlight".

For those who have Macs, you use it very often. It's fast and easily one of the most indispensable features on the Mac OS. Now, it's available for the iPhone.

What struck me was how seamless it was to use as far as I can see from the demo. More significantly, it what Apple said Spotlight will do beyond searching on the iPhone. It'll go into the servers to get you the information you want.

That might not be too significant right now or even with 3.0. It might be a feature we'll be more familiar with when Apple's next OS, Snow Leopard, is available, also around summer.

The fact that search will go beyond the mobile device into the servers may be code for something larger. Could Apple be looking at search and testing out its own mobile searches? There is precedent for this from Apple.

The iPod Touch. ATT certainly did not see that coming. At least not so quickly after the original iPhone went on the market. Then last year, Apple added "recording" capability to the iPod Touch. When pressed, Apple execs said VOIP is certainly a possibility. Then again yesterday, we find out that 2nd gen iPod Touch will gain full bluetooth capability with iPhone 3.0.

As an Apple watcher, this gets better and better by the moment. As a mobile warrior, search by Apple opens up another front in the mobile war against Android, Nokia, WM, and RIM, which is a good thing for mobility in general. And how would these companies respond?

Google and Microsoft. Google has a lot to offer in search already. It's ahead of what Apple can bring to the market. Still it can't simple sit around. Google should at least be uncomfortable with what Apple might be planning. I'm sure it doesn't sit well with Cupertino as far as Android is concerned. Honestly, what's Google without search?

Microsoft has a great Windows Mobile 7 coming but I wonder if they'll need go add search just because of this. Redmond is still looking at Google and doesn't see the iPhone as a threat. Priorities are a bit different here.

For the rest of the market, they need to be concerned. They've got smartphone OS trying to be a mobile platform. That's a lot of work and requires a lot of resources. Apple and Microsoft can move a lot of their desktop weapons to the mobile war. That can't be said of Symbian or Blackberry OS.

It's just one front of the mobile war. Still, it may be a significant one.

Apple Competitors Tries to Catch Up At World Mobile Congress

Fortune provided a summary of what Apple's competitors are doing to help overcome Apple's innovative lead in the mobile market.  Whether you think this lead is perceived or real, most mobile warriors will agree that anything mobile these days will be compared to what Apple is doing with the iPhone or be compared to the iPhone.

The market falls largely into three segments: 

• folks who will buy anything Apple
• folks who will buy anything but Apple - but likes the iPhone, just not Apple
• folks who want a good mobile device

With the above said, it stands to reason that while there are innovations going on outside of Cupertino (shocking, eh?), Apple seems to have the pole position these days.  You don't see many posts or articles on Storm killer now, do you?

So, at Barcelona, many mobile providers and device makers used the Mobile World Congress to lay out their strategies:

• Nokia:  with their Ovi store, they will create social-centric applications that leverage their huge installed base.  Media will be part of their emphasis.  Also, Skype will come pre-installed on many Nokia phones in the 3rd quarter.
• Android Marketplace:  Google started accepting paid apps this week but since the debut of the G1, it was all free apps only.  Users were subjected to beta status (my opinion that is widely shared by many users).  There was a belated update a couple of weeks ago but until we see what apps are available, we can't give a proper opinion at this time.  Also, Google will allow users to ask for their money back within 24 hours of buying an app if they are not satisfied.  However, if you want the money back, you'll need to get it from the developers.  And you will have to use Google Checkout.  In a way, it's a free for all so that will be interesting to watch.
• Palm Pre: very little information at this time.  It'll be difficult for Palm to differentiate itself from what its users are used to now.  It's like there won't be one but multiple store fronts for users to choose from.  Music will come from Amazon.
• Symbian: This is an interesting one.  With Nokia coming out with Ovi, will Symbian apps be folded into the Ovi store?  How about 3rd stores like Pocketgear that has largely supported Symbian effort?  
• Blackberry Applications Center: very little is known about it at this time.  Despite all the attention the iPhone is getting, RIM sells more units than Apple and that's a good thing for RIM.  By virtue of its installed base in the smartphone market, they're still the ones to beat.  And should RIM come out with a creative store, watch out.
• Microsoft: been in this business for years.  Apple made the app store easier to use but Microsoft has just as many apps as the iPhone's app store.  Can't wait to see the two go at it.I'm talking about iPHone 3.0 and windows Mobile 7.

While the Fortune article largely forgotten about T-Mobile and the other mobile providers, I haven't.  Yeah, our gatekeepers.  It's difficult to say what the dynamics and relationships they will have with device makers and the customers.  In the past, the wireless providers ruled the market.  

They say jump, and we ask whether it's a cliff or bridge they want us to jump off of.  Today, that has changed.  A year ago, no phone maker would think about creating their own app stores and services separately from the providers.  So until these app stores actually open and the services in effect, we can't say how much weight the wireless providers will have in selling their own apps and services.

My hope is one in which each platform will have multiple stores to choose from.  Of course, that'll never be the case with the iPhone.  

I believe we're just seeing the beginning of another jump in mobile computing and services.  Once all the stores are out there, mobile warriors will likely witness another leap in innovation for app distribution, communications, and services.  There's always be a leader others are trying to catch up to.

Via Fortune, Macrumors

Google Docs Now Editable On Mobile Devices

Google has finally made editing spreadsheets on mobile browsers (no word processing yet).

According to the Google Doc blog, it was only a year ago they've made docs viewable on browsers. Now, they're making editing available for spreadsheets.

My fellow mobile warriors, I've been complaining about Google's lack of attention for mobile blogging but this shows that they're making an effort at bring computing normally reserved for regular computers to mobile devices. 

Now, it appears this is only available for webkit-based browsers because they mentioned the iPhone, iPod Touch, G1, and Nokia's S60.

Links:

• Google Doc Blog
• Just Another iPhone Blog

Note:  Like I said, this looks like it's for only webkit-based browsers.  You would think that editing docs in word processors should be easier.  I suppose that's not the case.  Really really wish Google would bring over to G1 or the iPhone a native blogger app.

Impact:  It's too early for this to have an impact on mobile warriors.  The new functions are appreciated and while Google's docs are pretty advanced, I'm not sure a lot of folks use it.  I'm not sure a lot of mobile folks will start using it.  I'll try it and let you know how it is.  Really looking forward to it.

Busy Mobile 2009

A lot of tech companies have done well in the last few  years.  Some have done better than others.  That is without a doubt.  So, it's safe for us at Onxo to say that we won't see the kind of wholesale failures that this credit market has inflicted on the banks and investment firms.

So, Samsung, Acer, Dell, HP, RIM, and Apple will likely be keeping mobile warriors happy with new softwares and gears through this economic downturn.  I truly envy those with disposal capital to spend on these cool toys.

First up will be GSMA in Barcelona.  Yes, my fellow American mobile warriors.  Not everything revolves around the US I'm afraid.

A lot of mobile gears will make their debut between Feb 16-19.  Heck, even Acer is getting in on the action after they took the pole position with netbook sales.  A quick glance at the exhibitor list has HP, Sony, RIM, and Samsung at the show.  From the list, it looks to be a busy event.

It's no Davos but I think Barcelona is where mobile folks wants to be.  Who cares if Clinton, Putin, or the diminishing bankers aren't here.

Then what?  Looking at production cycles of the past, we may see RIM refresh some of their smartphone lines.  I doubt we'll see a new version of Bold or Storm in the first quarter.  I would say second quarter is possible but third quarter more likely.

For Google's Android, we're suppose to get an update, Cupcake, any time now.  A hardware update is direly needed.  Seriously, compared to the sleekness of the iPhone, Bold, and Pre, the G1 leaves a lot to be desired.

Besides, HTC, others are also working on their own Android phones.  Samsung and Motorola.  Samsung is doing well and Motorola is looking at an Android phone, a Pre of their own, to save what's left of their mobile device operation.

And speaking of Pre, this is going to be interesting.  Palm didn't give up a date.  I wouldn't even call "some time in the first half of 2009" a range.  Are you kidding me?  Your whole future rides this and you can tell your fans and investors when it'll come out?  Regardless, the Pre has me excited and I'm hoping for a T-Mobile version in the second half of 2009.  I'm not switching to Sprint just to use it.

Okay, you probably think I'm going right into Apple and the iPhone.  Not yet.  I'm wondering what Nokia is up to.  Lots of folks believe Apple will take the crown for smartphones (I still don't think of the iPhone as just a smartphone) but Nokia has been in this business for a long time.  They've seen what RIM did with Storm and how Android hasn't quite set the mobile world on fire.  Sight still on the iPhone.  N97 is pretty cool but much as with the rest of the industy, it looks more like a "me too" rather than anything revolutionary.  However, I'll take that over the G1 any day.

Now, Apple.  No idea or clue.  We'll see the iPod Touch refreshed in the fall just in time for what's likely to be another dismal Holidays Season.  More memory - definitely.  Other features are likely but with voice just added with 2nd gen iPod Touch, we might see more softwares that utilize it.  The headset could be upgraded to one with voice capability like the one they're selling now.

iPhone.  Money's on June/July time frame.  There's no hurry right now for Apple to rush anything out.  Personally, I'll settle for longer battery life with 3G use and more memory.  I kind of like the first iPhone look. These plastic white and black cases doesn't do it for me.  Expect Apple to make it thinner if they can.  I think most of the improvements will happen on the software front rather than hardware.  Love to see more Jetson features but given the battery life as it is, it's not gonna happen.  Rumors will carry us through boring days but don't get too excited, okay?

Now, netbooks, UMPC, and tablets.  I probably wouldn't have used one (given how poor I am) but I was majorly upset when Nokia ended their N810 WiMax edition.  Dude, what's up with that?  Ever heard of perseverance, Nokia?

We're likely going to see a new tablet from Nokia in 2009.  It really hasn't done much with it nor has Nokia promote the heck out of it either.  It stands to reason that if they spend even a quarter of the effort they spend on the handsets, the N820 or whatever they decide to number it will really be one heck of a device.  Add E-ink tech in there and it'll really blow the Kindle out of the water.

This goes the same for the iPhone platform.  Already e-reading is very popular on the iPhone and iPod Touch.  I spend a great portion of my time on these Apple devices reading.  Of course, I love to a bigger screen just for that.  I can really use a tablet based on the iPhone platform but that's wishful thinking.  We'll see Apple tablet rumors another three to four times in 2009 but I doubt we'll actually see the device.  Nokia and Archos can really take this opportunity to rule this segment of the market.

And guys, innovate.  Don't think just because Apple doesn't have a tablet means you can sit pretty.  They're perfecting another "insanely great" revolution here.

And how about Android on a netbook or UMPC?  Well, that's difficult to say.  I'm sure Google and Android partners has locked up some top engineers and won't let them see the light of day until they crank out something really cool.  Okay, forget the cool part.  Just Android on a netbook or tablet.

It'll be a busy year as device makers try to grab an increasing mobile market that is expanding beyond simple handsets and smartphones.

So, how about mobile gaming?  DSi for America in April.  That's so lame.

Briefly about Apple gaming.  I honestly don't know if anyone is afraid of the iPhone or iPod Touch in gaming but I'm sure Nintendo and Sony are looking at the multi-touch potential really hard.  And given the diminishing pricing on in the app store, I think tier one developers aren't crazy about bring over their franchise games to Apple's mobile platform.  There are a few.  Konami has a few coming and EA with Spores.  But we'll have to see how these folks make out with volume instead.  Love to see a great Madden or Tiger Woods though.

Back to DSi.  With it's older DS sibling, it's outselling PSP in Japan...and pretty much everywhere else.  Sony needs PSP2.  Again, Onxo will not traffic rumors but we've heard a lot of PSP2 chatter lately.  It means nothing without Sony confirming it.

PSP 3000 came out in August of 2008 (wiki), so if PSP2 comes out this summer or the fall, that would really be something to watch.  Take that, iPod Touch!

Okay, but the thing to watch for mobile gaming is Nintendo and Sony's app stores.  Those we'll see in 2009.

And speaking of app stores, just about every mobile platform from Windows Mobile to Nokia to RIM will have one this year.

Like I said, 2009 will be quite busy.  Mobile warriors, rejoice!

Link:  Mobile World Congress

Apple To Set Next Mobile Standards

First let me say I'm a fan of all things mobile - gadgets, life, technology, and so forth. I'm well-read but no expert (my expertises lie elsewhere).

However, it is logical to assume that if you're the leader in any particular industry or market, you are likely to be able to set standards for the rest to follow, whether they like it or not. Apple is certainly in this unique position to do just that with their iPhone platform.

According one report, Apple has a good chance of displacing Nokia as the top smartphone developer with 40% of the market share by 2013. That is a lot of mobile devices on which you can dictate to the market in terms of prices, features, and the level of innovation.

I'll get more into the various aspects of this potential Cupertino dominance later but it is incredible how far things have come since June 2007 when the first iPhone went on sale. Now, just about everyone is forced to have an app store for their mobile platform. Tie-in services are like to come from Nokia and Sony as Apple has with its web services.

Now, wireless standards. G4. To put it simple, it's WiMax. It's LTE. It's difficult to figure out just where Apple would go as more and more mobile users are likely to choose the iPhone as their mobile platform. When it comes time to negotiate new terms with wireless providers, it potentially provides Apple with the leverage to demand for more features to be accessible over the data network.

Should that happen, we can see potential for new changes in mobile life. We'll get into whether Apple enclosed platform model is good for mobile warriors later on.

iPhone OS Displaces Windows Mobile Ranking But...

First, let me say I love my first gen iPhone.  Second, I am trying to like my G1 but in my previous posts, I think Google and T-Mobile suckered us into their beta program.  Third, more than anything, I'm a big mobile fan.

So, it's great to see that iPhone has indeed gain a lot of traction among mobile warriors.  Ten to twelve million (depending on how you figure - actual activations, users, or simply pushed into stores).  Very impressive no matter how you want to account for the number.

Still, I want to mention a couple of things before a long-term victory is declared by the Apple camp.  The mobile market is very fluid.  It doesn't change from day to day but quarter to quarter.  The iPhone 3G came at a time when there was not a lot of new competitors on the market.  A lot of the products from RIM, Nokia, or Microsoft were already a bit dated.  And for a time, there was no competition to speak of if you want to talk about touch-screen devices.  And to dte, there is no multi-touch devices like the iPhone out there.

Also, Windows Mobile 7 is still MIA.  I would love to see the iPhone go toe-to-toe with WM7, Storm, and Nokia's N97.  Perhaps we may still.  N97 will be out likely in June of 2009.  There could be a new iPhone by then as well.  Perhaps even Storm 2.  And WM7 should be just around the corner.

Then we'll truly see a slug-fest.  Just the same, the iPhone, as a new comer, is kicking a lot of sand in the eyes of the old guards, changing rules of the game, and really running ahead of competing products on the market.

Nokia still rank first 42.4% of the smartphone market.  Coming in next is RIM with almost 16%.  Apple is third with about 13%.  Only Nokia suffered a bit of a drop from 49% a year ago.

So, new innovative product.  Timing.  And missteps by competitors.  All helped to make the iPhone 3G a success.  What do you think?  How will the game be played out?

Source:  Cult of Mac, MacDailyNews

Impact:  Well, Apple's success in the mobile market has caught people by surprise.  Even more, the extent of Cupertino's reach is all the more daunting.  We'll see smaller launch windows between product refreshes, increase research and development for those who can afford it (Palm and Motorola doesn't seem capable of that now), and lower pricing.  Great for all mobile users.  My only fear is that we may also get a lot of crap as a result.

Nokia Drops New Devices For Holiday Seasons

A bit late.  Very late.  Nokia's N97 is looking like a winner, if an expensive winner.  And from the preliminary specs, we are looking at potential (dare I say?) Blackberry-and-Danger killer.   Haha, you thought I was going to talk about that other mobile device.



32GB of internal storage with additional memory slot.  Dude, this is one bad-ass mobile device.  And to top it off, 5MP camera, touchscreen (probably not multi-touch).  Going for about $700 in the Euro zone, it'll be available on the first half of 2009.  It's not something the iPhone, Android, Blackberry fans need worry about this certainly gives Symbian/Nokia fanboys something to cheer about finally.

Source:  Electronista

Note:  iPhone still the top.  Mobility is about simplicity and nothing beats the iPhone at this time.  However, Nokia's new device certainly come close to being the killer on paper.  We'll have to see how it really plays out.

Impact:  For mobile warriors of all favors, it is great to see Nokia in the game and strong.  Innovation, competition, and possibly lower price entries for sophisticated devices on 2009.  I love it.

Mobile OS War

What does Canalys say about the OS shares?

In previous posts, we examined a bit the unit ranks from Canalys' report, originally reported from CNet.  Now, let's take a look at the mobile OS shares.

 

 This tells a slight different story than the units sold as reported.  Let's get into Microsoft.  with an impressive 42%, the growth rate still pales when compared to RIM's Blackberry OS shipment growth at 83.5%, nearly double that of the WM.

For Apple, because the data is skewed because of timing and market reach of the iPhone 3G.  And last year's figure for Apple was mostly confined to the US market.

However, more worrying sign for Microsoft is the growth of Linux, a choice apparently mobile warriors found more palpable than Windows Mobile.  The situation will only exacerbate by Android's introduction in the 4th quarter even if it confined to the US and UK.  And with Motorola throwing in their lot with Google's Android in the coming fiscal year, Android may find itself among one of the ranked OS in forthcoming surveys.

However, we know that Balmer has confirmed existing development on Windows Mobile 6.5, a welcoming piece of news if there is one.  Even if WM 6.5 has no new features but simple house-cleaning, the incremental upgrade will keep Microsoft in a strong position until Windows Mobile 7 is released in late 2009 or 2010.  But Microsoft cannot afford any more delays.

Most worrying-some is Symbian's 12% drop.  But we need to give some time to the open-source effort and see if it takes hold.  Even now, all eyes are Android, another open-source effort.  It is telling that Motorola picked Android over Symbian.  Says a lot and others, especially Chinese device makers, are going with Andoid.  Nokia is cash rich.  It's time they spend some of it to promote Symbian.

Do we need to say anything more about the iPhone?  No.  Interest is continues to be high and may grow as the dominant mobile device with telephony functions rather than a smartphone like others with computing functions.  We'll see how it goes head to head with the Blackberry family, specifically Storm next quarter and the one after that.

Other related Onxo and Web Posts:

• Onxo - smartphone ranking
• Onxo - Canalys Units Summary
• CNet - original source
• Canalys

Canalys Data Summary: Smartphone Shipments 3RD Quarter 2008

In the previous post , I mentioned CNet reporting on new smartphone data from Canalys.  I broke up the post because the previous post was something about the post itself.   Now, we'll get into the actual report itself.

What does the data from Canalys say about units shipped?

• Smartphone shipment rose 28% in the 3rd quarter over last year.
• 39.9 million units shipped.
• Nokia retains pole position to be followed by Apple in distance second.  Nokia took a hit in its marketshare as well.  But all things considered, Nokia held its own.
• The market is huge.  Onxo always believe there is enough room for multiple players to grow.  However, Microsoft has to start firing on all cylinders to maintain the status of a major competitor in the market.  Or else, remember Palm? 
• RIM came in 3rd but new devices may allow it to capture the silver in the 4th quarter.  Apple has but only one device.
• When it's all said and one, Nokia and RIM should gain shares are their new products are launched and have had a chance to reach intended markets.

I don't find Apple's 5X shipment increase all that important due to lack of previous metrics to make comparisons.  We need to see how it does once the iPhone distribution has settled.  Last year, the iPhone was only sold in the United States.  By the end of the year, it will be sold in about 70 countries.  Regardless how the data is interpreted, Apple hit a grand slam first time at bat.  And it did so again the 2nd time around.  Unfortunately for Apple, its reputation for innovation leaves it very little room to fall short.  To continue the baseball analogies, even a triple could be viewed as failure.

Here's what we need to look out for in the coming quarters:

• Blackberry numbers may be skewed since it will have additional devices on the market.  I really want to see how the retention rate is for RIM.
  
• HTC's 4th quarter number and beyond are very important.  Why?  Android.  
• More specifically, which platform is doing well.  We know Apple's iPhone OS made a great splash but how will Android fare a couple of quarters from now?  
• How low will Windows Mobile go?  It grew 42% but its competitors grew faster, including Linux.  It is in danger of being made irrelevant if folks latch onto other platforms currently with all the momentum.
• How will iPhone's sales be affected by new mobile devices?  And how will iPhone's sales affect adoption of new competing models?
• Can Apple sustain market share with only one model?  If not, perhaps subsequent drops in future quarters may point to Apple release more than one model of iPhone if they want to satisfy the different needs of mobile users.

Next post, let's look at this report from the OS angle.  Visit CNet and Canalys for more details.

Smartphone Shipment Worldwide Ranking

CNet has posted information produced by Canalys on smartphone shipments in the last quarter.

What's interesting in the post is the focus on the iPhone.  But given focus on Apple's mobile device in the last few months and the hits it'll generate from Apple folks, I suppose it's a smart move on their part.  So, iPhone, iPhone, iPhone...and Blackberries!

Now, how does impact mobile warriors?  Frankly, the numbers say nothing other than that if you make a good device, people will buy it no matter the hype you can generate.  The music player market is not as sophisticated as the mobile device market.  Hence, the users are also more knowledgeable about features and what devices can do what.

And it looks like the iPhone has what folks are looking for.  Oh sure, the hype helped too.  It's Steve Jobs and Apple after all.  But let's be fair.  The iPhone 3G is one pretty fine mobile device.

Here is a pic I lifted off Canalys of the ranks:

Nokia has the largest share of the market but it's growth may not come until next year when it has more devices on the market that can compete with Android, Apple, and RIM devices.

Visit CNet and Canalys for more details.  I'll follow up with pertinent data for those who don't want to go through the whole thing.

Mobile Gaming Reach $1 Billion

RCR Wireless is reporting some encouraging news for mobile entertainment. Particularly mobile gaming.

This was talked about on our earlier post.  Here are some additional information:

• Fragmentation of platforms is making it difficult for developers to choose which platform to support.
• Gaming will reach $6.8 billion by 2013.
• One third of those survey play games on their mobile phone.  It's all my mom does on her iPhone.  I remembered she was surprised when she found out it could make phone calls.  A gaming machine that makes phone calls.  What will they think of next?
• One fifth of those survey have downloaded games other than from their carriers.

Note the last point.  This why why wireless providers like to keep their subscribers locked.  This is another area where iPhone has made great impact on mobile landscape.   You can do with with Palm and Windows Mobile even before the iPhone came along. 

But it was Apple that has shift the balance of power away from the carriers.  It's also why Nokia has thanked Apple a couple of times already.

Link:  RCR Wireless

Mobile Update for October 29, 2008

Today, many G1 owners got a rude awakening when T-Mobile suddenly ended our 3G/EDGE services causing widespread panic.

Apparently, we have been part a week long promotion but I think they call it that but since Google's involved, we were a part of their beta program yet again.  Anyway, this "beta program" ended badly.  Instead of switching everyone over to the data plan we selected when we pre-ordered, it just dropped us without so much as a notice.

Again, to get your service back, you'll need to call T-Mobile.  I just logged into my account and reselected the data plan I want.  Thirty minutes later (though it may take up to 48 hours for some folks), I was back up and running again.

The curious thing was that my Gtalk and Gmail was still working during that time.

Now, the other mobile news we're tracking.  We have been updating you on the white spaces saga.  It continues with new information.  The FCC has decided to go ahead with their plans for a November 4th vote.

Dolly Parton or not, looks like geeks (Gates and Google's Schmidt) won this round at least.

More links and the rest of today's mobile news at our new Mobile Digerati.