CEOs Sacked, Cloudy Forecast. Consolidation Coming?

Here are the new kids on the block: Samsung, Motorola, HTC. Maybe LG.

Here are the guys who don't get it. Let's call them the "old guys": Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Dell, HP...though HP gets a pass because its Palm acquisition has yet to play out. RIM probably belongs here too given the limitations they've put on Playbook and the weird marketing.

Wild Cards: Amazon And Barnes and Noble. Sony And Nintendo Should be with the Old Guys but I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt.

So far, the new kids are doing well. Dazzling the market with new Windows Phone 7 and Android gears. And just completed 3 months of 2011, we'll see more Android 3, Honeycomb, tablets hit the market and continue what the iPad did last year: putting a hurt on the laptop market and possibly finishing off the netbooks.

The old guys spew a lot of double talk about how their experience in enterprise will ultimately demonstrate that they new guys's tablets, including the iPad, will not have a chance. They came out with fuzzy math to show how the tablet is more expensive.

And yet, so far, vaporware.

Because it's a Friday afternoon, let me put this out there. Dell is going to fail. The rest of the old guys probably will struggle bit time as well as the mobile market shifts in terms of needs and what the new type of computing the tablets represent.

And like HP having to go out and buy Palm for the Web OS, I wonder if others will need to do the same to stay viable over the next decade.

Dell has to make an acquisition or two. As an old guy, Dell is still making loads of cash. And the PC market isn't just going to disappear overnight. And of the new guys, Motorola Mobile (MMI) is the weakest and smallest.

Can Dell come in and scoop them up and instantly gain strong street cred with Xoom and Droid? It has done that in the past with the gaming laptop maker, Alienware. On top of that, there's talk that Motorola is making their own OS to distance themselves from Android and Windows Phone 7.

Dell will probably see what their lineup will do against others. It will gain no traction and the blogs and investors will demand action. They'll probably have to go out buy what they need. All that matters is when Michael Dell pulls the trigger. I'm predicting it'll be Motorola because RIM will be too expensive. Plus, RIM's got a couple of erratic co-CEOs that might clash with Dell.

For the other old guys, 2011 will be exciting not because of their new products which are largely based on old thinking but what they will do once they fail. Aside of HP's Touchpad, the rest of the Android tablets will be hard to differentiate. And though some might hope that a Windows tablet OS might save them, that is probably a 2012 thing, more likely 2013 given Micrsoft's track record to promise but under deliver.

The ebook sellers and the gaming guys, Wildcard guys, present a very interest dynamics going forward. And they have an opportunity to play big roles or completely disappear into nothingness. I'm looking foward to speculate what could come of them.

Right now, the situations for the old guys are more dire. HP has to succeed with the Touchpad and the next Web OS smartphones. Dell will fail miserably and look for an answer through a buyout.

The same is probably true for the rest of the old guys. Their only opening is in Asia where many of these old guys can still count as their stronghold. However, that window will close quickly once Apple has its iPad 2 supply issues figured out (Steve Jobs has $60+ billion in the bank to do just that) and more Apple stores start opening up.

Sunday Laptop Deals Run-Down For August 17, 2008

It's that time of the week ago.  What's a good laptop this week from the megastores for your mobile life.  To start off there is a Office Max deal, a bundle really, for $700.  What do you get?

HP Pavilion Notebook Bundle (Pavilion dv6911, C4480, SwissGear Backpack)

• 3GB RAM
• T5550, 1.83Ghz
• Webcam
• 200GB HD
• Vista
• Printer C4480, 30ppm black, 23 ppm color
• media card reader

Is this a good deal?  The chip is Core 2 Duo and slightly slower than its 2.0Ghz brethren.  Compared to the Dell Studio 1535, it has a smaller hard drive but makes it up with a printer and a backpack as part of the bundle.  

Given the bundle, it should work seamless as both the laptop and printer are both made by HP.  C4480 All-In-One Printer (print, copies, scans, no fax) being sold for $60 on amazon while HP and Apple has it for $100.  I

It's a decent deal but nothing I would rush out to get.  Compared to Dell, I would just get this over it.  Without the bundle, the Pavilion costs about $600-650.  In total, buyers may be looking at a savings of $40-$70 dollars.  

Now this week's laptops from the stores:

The notable this week comes from Office Depot with the Toshiba laptop.  It offers a USB charger that continues to charge your iPods even when the machine is still off.  In addition, you can pick up MS Office for $100 more.  There is also an FM Tuner if you want to listen to the radio while you hack out a report for your client or fine-tune your lab report for your o-chem class (I was a biochemistry major).

I also like the DV5-1002NR from Best Buy.  If you do get this one, make sure you bring your ad.  The online price is $20 more.  There is also the DV5-1004NR that did not meet Onxo's cut.  The 1004 version cost $850, that's $200 more than the 2002 version.  What's the different?  A faster chip.  You can decide for yourself if a 100mhz different is worth the premium.

As always, there are Macbooks.  Rumblings from the Internet this week is that the Macbook Air is due for an upgrade in CPU, memory, and the systems within it.  This is like to happen any day now, as it is being reported.  I don't buy it.  Apple is in the midst of their back to school deal (free iPod Touch with purpose of Macbook for faculties and college students only) and they are concentrating on their iPhone launches in the next few weeks.  Apple has a lot on its plate.  We will not be seeing any new Macbooks until late September.

Also note the amount of memory that comes with the laptop.  3 or 4GB.  As a rule of thumb, more memory the better.  So, we'll start looking at laptops with 4GB unless we see a 3GB laptop with a killer price.  I've noticed a lot of older models with 2 or 3GB with great prices but don't be deceived.  These laptops also typically sport older chipsets and subsystems.  If you're not sure, do a bit of research.

MORE MEMORY:  Now, we're going to tell you something you're not going to like.  4GB is great but let's be honest, I'm beginning to see systems that offer up to 8GB.  You may want to keep an eye on that.  Windows 7 is coming out in 2010.  OS X Snow Leopard will under a slime-down and some tuning to streamline application footprint but I'm betting we're still headed in the direction where 8GB would be ideal.

It really depends on how long you'll be keeping your laptop.  For most of mobile warriors out there, there is nothing for us to worry at this time.  But don't be surprised over the next year when system requirements, not just minimum memory requirements, are greatly increased.

Sunday Laptop Deals Run-Down

It's back-to-school season now and your young ones or yourself could be looking at new mobile hardware to power you through the coming school year.  Onxo has looked through the circulars to help you sort through the "specials" and find the gem and tell you what are duds. 

So, what are you seeing for mobile students and individuals this week?  We like what we're seeing with the HP DV4 and DV7.  It's on the high-side but costs less than the Macbook but worth it because of the Centrino 2 chips and chipsets in them.  The HP duo offers 1066Mhz bus besting everyone else in the field this week.  It is future proof and, frankly, seeing the Centrino 2 for this price is unexpected for both the 14" and 17" screens.

Then also look the the memory.  That's right.  4GB.  The 4GB is quickly becoming the standard.  Frankly, I don't get the 3GB configurations from the other laptops.

Speaking of the other laptops, I included a couple of the Compaq from Fry's and Staples.  Both contain the very old T2390 and it is a drag you have to run Vista.  This is purely a personal machine for Internet and school work.  The Staples machine is a better deal than the one from Frys.  With the price difference, I would use it to upgrade to 4GB.  Note.  As far as multimedia and communication are concerned, no webcam for these two Compaq.  In my mind, it's a must for students as learning to collaborate over the Internet these days should be web-conferencing.  I think it should be a must skill for future mobile warriors.

We now turn our attention to the 700 range.  Well, it turns out the best of this range of laptops are the Gateways that are priced inside and outside of the $700 laptops.  The T-6836 is a buff 4GB 2Ghz machine with a healthy 250GB HD.  The system uses a 667Mhz bus as does it's bigger 15.4" siblings, two generations behind the Centrino 2 from the HP.  No matter as they speed will carry you further than what the Compaq laptops offer.  The $850 is different in that it has a dedicated GPU with 512MB.  It is good if video and gaming is a must. 

For the $700 laptops, the Acer with the Dolby Sound system is unique and they claim it a first.  And it has a 16" screen that makes it better for movie viewing.  But they should have gone with the 17" and 4GB of memory.  This beats the rest in the range. 

AMD seems to have fallen out of favor with the consumer electronics stores.  A year ago, you can find them all over.  I like AMD and the last two systems I've bought for personal use are AMD-based.  My mom has an AMD-powered laptop.  I hope out hope that AMD will stop talking and start backing up what words they've already thrown at its competitors.  I remain very hopeful.

Now, I've included the Macbooks.  Value, you cannot go wrong with the Macbooks.  They costs more but what I find maddenly when computer reviews and even Mac-based blogs fail to mention is that while Macbooks cost more, Apple always use the most updated Intel mobile platform, regardless of the Macbook or the Macbook Pro lines.  To me that along commands a premium.  You able able to commit to your Macbook longer and the added advantage of OS X.  (Please note I don't have a problem with Microsoft products.  I love XP and Office.  Just having issues at home and work with Vista.)

Now, the HP laptops in the chart has the tired Macbooks beat with the Centrino 2.  So, what does Onxo recommend?  This is close even with HP already using Centrino 2.  Why?  Apple is currently offering students with iPod Touches with purchases.  Not only that, if XP is needed as a part of your mobile work or education, Macbooks run XP and Vista very well, in some cases better dedicated Windows laptops.

In conclusion, you can't go wrong with any of the machines.  I would not look at the Compaqs at all if you can avoid it.  The HP laptops are looking good with Centrino 2.  I'm not that big with the Acer with Dolby Sound.  The Gateways are competitive and feature rich with 4GB of memory.  You cannot go with these with machines. 

Right now, I'm waiting for a refresh of the Macbook in September for my own buy.  But if you're college student this fall and you're in the market for a mobile platform like the iPod Touch, the student priced Macbook and free iPod is the way to go. 

Note:  This is our first time offering these mobile advice and if you have any comments and suggestions, we greatly appreciate it.  And we'll do better.