CEOs Sacked, Cloudy Forecast. Consolidation Coming?

Here are the new kids on the block: Samsung, Motorola, HTC. Maybe LG.

Here are the guys who don't get it. Let's call them the "old guys": Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Dell, HP...though HP gets a pass because its Palm acquisition has yet to play out. RIM probably belongs here too given the limitations they've put on Playbook and the weird marketing.

Wild Cards: Amazon And Barnes and Noble. Sony And Nintendo Should be with the Old Guys but I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt.

So far, the new kids are doing well. Dazzling the market with new Windows Phone 7 and Android gears. And just completed 3 months of 2011, we'll see more Android 3, Honeycomb, tablets hit the market and continue what the iPad did last year: putting a hurt on the laptop market and possibly finishing off the netbooks.

The old guys spew a lot of double talk about how their experience in enterprise will ultimately demonstrate that they new guys's tablets, including the iPad, will not have a chance. They came out with fuzzy math to show how the tablet is more expensive.

And yet, so far, vaporware.

Because it's a Friday afternoon, let me put this out there. Dell is going to fail. The rest of the old guys probably will struggle bit time as well as the mobile market shifts in terms of needs and what the new type of computing the tablets represent.

And like HP having to go out and buy Palm for the Web OS, I wonder if others will need to do the same to stay viable over the next decade.

Dell has to make an acquisition or two. As an old guy, Dell is still making loads of cash. And the PC market isn't just going to disappear overnight. And of the new guys, Motorola Mobile (MMI) is the weakest and smallest.

Can Dell come in and scoop them up and instantly gain strong street cred with Xoom and Droid? It has done that in the past with the gaming laptop maker, Alienware. On top of that, there's talk that Motorola is making their own OS to distance themselves from Android and Windows Phone 7.

Dell will probably see what their lineup will do against others. It will gain no traction and the blogs and investors will demand action. They'll probably have to go out buy what they need. All that matters is when Michael Dell pulls the trigger. I'm predicting it'll be Motorola because RIM will be too expensive. Plus, RIM's got a couple of erratic co-CEOs that might clash with Dell.

For the other old guys, 2011 will be exciting not because of their new products which are largely based on old thinking but what they will do once they fail. Aside of HP's Touchpad, the rest of the Android tablets will be hard to differentiate. And though some might hope that a Windows tablet OS might save them, that is probably a 2012 thing, more likely 2013 given Micrsoft's track record to promise but under deliver.

The ebook sellers and the gaming guys, Wildcard guys, present a very interest dynamics going forward. And they have an opportunity to play big roles or completely disappear into nothingness. I'm looking foward to speculate what could come of them.

Right now, the situations for the old guys are more dire. HP has to succeed with the Touchpad and the next Web OS smartphones. Dell will fail miserably and look for an answer through a buyout.

The same is probably true for the rest of the old guys. Their only opening is in Asia where many of these old guys can still count as their stronghold. However, that window will close quickly once Apple has its iPad 2 supply issues figured out (Steve Jobs has $60+ billion in the bank to do just that) and more Apple stores start opening up.

Sony Release Next Generation Portable Gaming - Yes, A Game Changer

In my family, I have always had respect for much of what Sony delivered in terms of electronics and innovation. And yes, the PSP was innovative. And with NGP, next-generation portable, Sony has once again showed that it is alive and well, and ready to kick sand in the eyes of Nintendo, Apple, and anyone else who says that its better days in mobile gaming was in the past.

Here's a rundown of the specs that is already rocking mobile gaming. You're going to get blown away big time.

Sony Will have Xperia Play, What about Nintendo?

Mario, Zelda, and the Pokemons have entertained us for years. Decades now. But with the mobile gaming landscape changing so far, what should Nintendo do? Should they remain in the hardware business? I think Nintendo has one more chance to get things right and that's the DSi.

But I think more and more, that's looking less likely to keep Nintendo in the game. Consider that fact that decaded gaming devices, consoles or handheld, live for 3-4 years at a time. In an era where the iPhone is updated annually and new Android devices released throughout a given year, Nintendo, or Sony's PSP for that matter, just cannot stay up with the trend.

It is increasingly looking like Sony will bite the bullet and merge PSP with its Xperia phone and call it Xperia Play. For Sony, there is a lot of risks but the rewards could be huge. How about Nintendo?

I see three options. I don't see Nintendo with the staying power to just push out dedicated mobile gaming devices.

1. Get into the phone business.  Apple did it and I'm sure Nintendo can find a Japanese phone maker who would be happy to help Nintendo with a DSphone.  Is this likely?  No but stranger things have happened.  Perhaps Nokia would a willing partner.
2. Get out of the hardware business completely.  Do what Sega did after Saturn expired.  Would you like to see Nintendo's starters and deep bench of libraries on the iPhone, Android, PC and Mac, Xbox 360, and PS3?  I see a lot of dollar signs there.  I don't see this happen unless Nintendo really cannot keep technically with the rest of the mobile market.  But it is certainly enticing and I would love to see it happen as a gamer.
3. Create a platform and license it to developers and hardware makers.  For instance, HTC can license Nintendo's designs to put it on its own phone.  So could Motorola, LG, Samsung, or anyone else who wants to let its users catch Pokemons to battle.  

I think I like the third option the best.  Like Google, Nintendo can come up with a reference device.  It can run on Android, Windows, WebOS or some Linux variant.  Hardware makers can build off that.  Devices would be subject to Nintendo's approval.  Once all conditions are met, Nintendo-approved devices can be manufactured and sold.

In a way, Nintendo would still be in the hardware business as an overseer, allow others to take the risk, and continue to build excellent games for it.  

Is this viable?  I think so.  If you want to play Nintendo games, you still have to buy Nintendo-approved devices.  

Android 2.2 Not Ready For Tablet Primetime Says Google

I don't want to get into a pissing contest with Steve Jobs about what is the perfect screen for the tablet. iPads have done will but Android's day under the tablet sky will come.

Right now there are a few unsanctioned Android tablets on the market if you're willing to chance it. Yeah, I thought so. So then therefor Samsung's Tab which will cost close to $1K unsubsidized, $400-600 depending on carrier subsidy.

But even then, Google has publicly said that Android 2.2 is not optimized for tablet use and we'll have to wait for Android 3.0 at the end of the year.

What's clear though is that Android tablets will flood the market early 2011. And if you thought waiting until then is hard, just wait until we have to chose between different versions, screen sizes, and which works best for us.

How Microsoft, Nintendo, And Sony Will Bring Portable Gaming to Mobile Computing Market

Some quick thoughts about mobile gaming in the age of app stores, casual gaming, and diminished support for portable gaming consoles, is it time to give thought to how Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will go on. I see a merger of platforms, birth of new ones, and a salad of old tech mixed with the new.

Which is better?

Despite iPad Success, eReaders Might Be Harder To Kill Off Than Expected

Maybe Amazon and Barnes And Noble are going about this the wrong way. Maybe Kobo Reader has it right after all. How so?

Maybe digital book readers should be a combination of the follow two factors that Kobo reader has:  simplicity and a relatively low price (though recently, the Kindle and Nook both had about $50 chopped off their retail price).  

Kindle/Nook Versus "Just Readers. Until the Kindle came on the scene, readers were fairly expensive and it was not easy to upload books into these readers.  Kindle made that iPod-like simple and has since been joined by Sony Reader and the Nook.  However, despite Amazon's claims of success, there is still no figure provided by Amazon about how many Kindles were actually sold and how may ebooks have been bought by Kindle owners since its debut.

But Kobo with its simple read-only device isn't shy about saying how well it's done in New Zealand.  According to Stuff, the first two batches of thousands of Kobo readers have sold out and a third batch is on the way in July.  And with books costing $10-15 (7.15-10.75 USD), this is cheaper than even what Amazon, BN, and Apple sells.

Kobo - Cinderella Reader? So what has made the Kobo such a large success?  It is more simple than the Kindle to install books?  First, the Kobo reader has no 3G or wireless access so the reader would need to buy books form a computer and then install it on the reader.  That might be cumbersome but it isn't any different from what many users do to sync media with Apple's mobile iOS devices for nearly a decade now.

What likely makes Kobo a success is that it just lets the user reader books.  It does not nothing else.  Just read.  And quite frankly, I, and likely many readers, find that refreshing.  I was not always impressed with the Kindle because it has a lot of features and yet it does none of them well.  Then along came the Nook and it was great to see the Kindle with a competitor and while it was based on Google's Android OS, my complaints against it was the same as that of the Kindle. It has features other than being a reader but none of them are easy to use.

Then the iPad came along but let's be honest. It's a great tablet and Apple has been hugely successful by selling three million iPads in just 80 days.  The complaints I had against the Nook and Kindle were solved with the iPad but the iPad isn't a great reader.  I've read only two books on it since I got it and I've got five others to read and I've been putting it off.  Plus, the iPad with its plethora of features, apps, and multimedia functions are a distraction.

And that's where readers like Kobo are different and might find success.  The Kobo reader just let users read books.  And just like a book, it offers no distraction.  When BN released a 3G-less Nook last week at $150, I nearly pulled the trigger (I've already bought two Nooks for family members) on it.  But then the old complaints about it still exist.  Honestly, trying to browse the Web or play games on the Kindle and Nook is very maddening and suffocating.

Borders is currently offering the Kobo reader for pre-order in the US.  So for anyone looking for a dedicated reader that is free from half-baked features like the Kindle or the Nook or isn't in the market for a full-featured tablet like the iPad, I definitely encourage anyone in the market for a good digital book reader to take a look at Kobo reader.  

So I think Kobo and other readers should do well in the market long-term.  I also foresee a significant price drop in the next year or so.  At $150 (Borders price), the Kobo is a still mildly expensive so it isn't out of the realm of possibility to see a $25-$50 decrease in the retail price.  Heck, just wait until a Chinese company come out with a $50-$75 reader in the next year or two.  

Conclusion.  The iPad is a success and its the standard bearer for tablets.  The Kindle and Nook will try to add features because the companies that produced them will try to match them with the tablets feature for feature.  But at the end of the day, book lovers just want to read.  And that where Kobo and others will dominate.

More at Teleread, Stuff, Kobo, And Borders (Kobo's Page)

Note: I've included a link for Borders' Kobo reader page but I don't have any interest (ie. associate link) from any sale of the reader.

After iPad, Who's Next?

This iPad week whether mobile warriors from other camps like it or not. But it'll be over eventually and another platform will get the attention. So who might that be?

Amazon with Kindle? Sony with a slew of Viao tablets powered by PSP 2? Nintendo surprising us with DS tablet or Microsoft mashing Zune, Xbox , and WM7 into a revolutionary alternative to mobile computing?

How about HTC, Dell and HP? Well, I don't have much hope for these three based on what I see near-term but I like to be surprised.

More at Onxo Mobile Devices for analysis on who has the best chance of offering a complete mobile computing experience.

Mobile Summary - What's Been Happening In the Mobile Market

Things are moving very fast in the mobile world right now.  So, here is a brief summary of things that I've kept up with.

Android

• Android seems to be making a huge run for a chunck of the mobile users.  I haven't seen this kind of excitement in a platform with the number of different gears out there since the early days of Windows CE.  Even Dell, a traditional Redmond ally, is entering the mobile market with Android.  
• Droid is kicking up a lot of dust.  At who, well, that's hard to say now.  Though I don't like the keyboard or the boxy design, I like everything else about it.  Bigger screen than the iPhone with a whole lot more resolution.  And it's thinness is something worth noting.  All that without sacrificing battery life. Also, it runs Android 2.0.
• I recently rooted my G1 for tethering and installing Google Navigation.  I think this is why Android has such a large following.  Smart smart folks involved and it is more open than the iPhone will ever be.  Of course, that's both good and bad.

Windows Mobile

• I'll be honest here and say I don't know what's going on.  I know the HTC's HD2 is out.  But no WM 7 or Zune integration.  On the other hand, Zune gaming is looking good this week with additional 3D games.  As an Apple fan, I am contemplating getting a Zune HD just to see what the big deal is.  Yeah, I'm a gear lover.  I'll still be getting iPhones, Macbooks, etc. 

Palm Pre

• After the iPhone, I'd get the Pre.  Right now, the Android devices are underpowered and new gears won't be out until 2010 with better insides.  Today, Palm's stock price jumped on rumors that Nokia is looking to take it off the market.  I don't know if Nokia wants WebOS but with a bunch of former Apple guys with access to NOkia's deep pocket and treasure, wow, this would be better than if Dell picked up Palm.

iPhone Platform

• Not a good few weeks.  Okay, iPhone demand continues to be strong.  Shortages and stuff like that.  Except in China where today, it has sold 30K in about two weeks.  Orange managed that in one day.  But then, I wouldn't get a crippled iPhone either (no Wi-Fi in China).  
• Oh, and even as it provides a tool for developers to see how their app is doing through the approval process, Apple is facing a new revolt of sort
• There are now 100,000 apps with over two billion downloads.  
• Still waiting on the iTablet. Lots of blog chatters about Apple trying to save the print realm.  

ATT Versus Verizon

• This is interesting.  You know those 3G commercials?  Verizon is doing the same thing that Apple has being doing to Microsoft with the "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" campaign.  Alright, maybe VW took some liberty at how it wants to influence potential customers or VW customers looking to jump ship to join ATT.  ATT has decided it would have none of it no more and has sued VW to make them take off the commercials and for damanges.  ATT has a lot to lose as it is rumored that they will lose their iPhone exclusivity in 2010.
• ATT issued a memo disputing VW's claims.  More at electronista.
• Again, the commercial is pretty good for its entertainment value.

Nintendo

• It's never enough.  Nintendo is a cash machine but apparently, it's never enough in a capitalist society.  So, what happened?  Well, I'm thinking the economy has more to do with it but news and blogs are saying it has more to do with the iPhone.  Okay, maybe some but not all of it.  Still, it's been a while since I've bought a Nintedo handheld and I won't be getting it until it's like the DS 2 or something.  The next version of DSi will have bigger screens.  Let's hope that Nintendo decides to bring more than just that.  The iPod Touch is not completing with the DSi or PSP directly because it can do so much more.  But because it can do so much more and by the sheer installed base, it is getting a lot of attention from traditional gaming outfits.  It'll be interesting to see how Nintendo responds.  We already Know Zune is going into Windows Mobile and Xbox mobile gaming is likely just around the corner.  Maybe Nintendo should buy out Palm and add DS gaming to it?  What do you think?
• Crunchgear doesn't think Nintendo needs to worry about Apple right now.  Not yet.  I agree, for now.  Nintendo, with the recent price cut to the Wii is going into the important Holiday Season with more sales than Xbox, PSP, or PS 3.  

Google

• See the above Android section.
• Google just bought Gizmo5.  VOIP with Google Voice.  Match made in mobile heaven.  This is interesting because there were talks that Skype was interested in Gizmo5 until eBay, Skype, and the former owners of Skype settled their disagreement.  Imagine how this works out.  Android devices requiring only data access and calls via VOIP.  
• More on the Gizmo5 buyout:  Daily Wireless, CNet
• With the purchase of Gizmo5, look out for blogs and news reports about exploding VOIP markets.  Folks will be jumping on the bandwagon about it.  Take it easy.  Skype isn't going to sit this out.  But love to see Google Voice go at it with Skype.  An Edison-Tesla type of brawl in our time.
• Chrome OS is coming a lot nicely.  We should see it in the next few weeks.  
• While we're on Google, CNet has an interview with Google's CEO and made a claim that Docs will be just as good as Office.  About the Docs statement, I don't use OpenOffice for the same reason I don't use Docs as much.  You want to rival Office?  Check out Numbers from Apple.  Go ahead and copy it, Google.  Microsoft said it copied OS X.  So that's okay.

RIM/Symbian/Others

• This week, it was reported that phone sale growth resumed in the third quarter of 2009.
• 45 Million smartphones shipped worldwide,  representing a 5% growth. More if you're willing to pay $7000 for the rest of the report at Strategy Analytics.  Yeah, this is all I need to know.
• Here is a table lifted from IntoMobile.  Nokia is number one, followed by RIM and Apple.  Apple with just two models (and two various of the 3GS) may put a hurt on others next year.  Nokia is in the pole position with 39.3%.  RIM has 20.8% (great growth) with Apple trailing at 17.1%.  No one has has double digit marketshare or growth except folks in the "others" category.  
• Nokia, mentioned above, in looking to snatch Palm off the market, according to Barron's.  

Here's my thought in all of this.  The ideal situation is each of the mobile giants have an equal share of the market.  That way, it keeps them all honest and their innovation engines running high.

So, this has been what's going on the last couple of weeks in mobility.

Nokia And Sony Ericsson - Can They Return To Prominence?

My initial intention was to try talking about Nokia and Sony Ericsson with the mention of the you-know-what that has a fruit for its corporate symbol.

Nokia just recently posted a loss of nearly $850 million while Sony Ericsson faired a bit better but still doesn't seem to have an answer to get back into the black. The public line is the economy. And while Sony Ericsson did fare a bit better than what analysts were expecting, it was still not the same thing as actually announcing a positive earnings.

I've long ago given up hope of trying to understand corporate reporting as allowed by regulatory agencies but that's now the issue here. Others in the industry have managed to do well despite the depressed global economy. So, how are Nokia and Sony Ericsson different from say RIM and Apple's mobile offerings?

The main difference I see here is the lack of a cohesive mobile plan on the part of Nokia and Sony Ericsson. Just ask Motorola. It's difficult to see how Nokia plan on turning things around but folks like Sony and Motorola are moving away from Windows Mobile to Android to power their devices and hoping that will solve their problems.

Still, it is difficult to ascertain if that will work as planned. The differentiating factor between Android and Windows Mobile (WM) is that both platforms have different backers and that Android is open source and free while WM is Microsoft's offering and isn't free. And as Android devices flood the market, there won't be much in terms of differentiation among themselves.

In essence, many of these companies using Android will not be able to differentiate themselves other than adding their own proprietary skins to run on top of Android. The underlying operating system remains the same. Not only will Android devices in the future have to contend with Palm, WM 7, Blackberry OS, and others, they will have to compete among themselves.

Sony will need to fend off HTC, Samsung, Motorola, and other Android hardware developers.

However, Nokia stands to have a better chance than Sony Ericsson since it offers its own mobile platform. The only thing that's lacking from Nokia is a mobile vision for its users and prospective mobile users.

Obviously, time will tell. We'll know into 2011 where things stand. By then, Android devices will be in their second or third generation hardware and OS improvements. We'll know if Sony Ericsson and others who chose to back Android was the right decision. And even as the smartphone market continue to grow and adoption accelerates in an improving global economy, it will be interesting to see if Nokia is able to hold its fort against the onslaught of smaller innovative mobile players.

Zune HD A Taste of What's To Come For Windows Mobile

Over at On Apple, we posted a "don't worry" opinion on what Zune HD means for iPod Touch developments and Apple fans.

However, it's not like we're saying Zune HD isn't a great hardware.  We just don't think it's the right comparison with the iPod Touch given Microsoft's own admission that Zune HD doesn't have a full-blown mobile OS and we've yet to see what else it's capable of doing, storage capacity (thought we think it'll be between 16-32GB), and how long the battery life will carry an user through the day.

We firmly believe that Zune HD, though a potentially formidable video player to be sure, is merely a taste for mobile warriors of what's to come from Redmond.  If you visit Gizmodo's first impression with the pictures and video, you'll see that Microsoft's risky decision to integrate Zune with Windows Mobile or even Microsoft's zPhone (Zune phone) later on may work out better than anyone believe (let's not kid ourselves.  A Zune phone is forthcoming).  In the past, Onxo wasn't sure that it was that integrating Zune and Windows Mobile was a move Microsoft need to make nor one that was likely to work out well.

Whatever Microsoft's answer to the current mobile offerings in the market (Android, Blackberries, iPhone, and Pre which has yet to be released), it's obvious that a lot of work was put into this.  There's no doubt that Zune HD has elevated mobile video entertainment to another level with the OLED screen.

What remains to be seen is what Windows Mobile 7 can hold up its end of the bargain in this two-prong OS.

What I'm curious about is the roadmap that Microsoft has laid out for mobile computing, mobile entertainment, and, lastly, Windows or the Xbox.

First the mobile realm.  The iPhone has garnered  a lot of attention with the surprising move into casual gaming, I'm still a year or two away from really believing that Apple's mobile platform has the staying power in gaming against entrenched veterans.  So the iPhone gaming may not be Microsoft's concern.  Rather, its foes Microsoft is more familiar with:  Nintendo and Sony.  It's a good bet that mobile gaming devices from Nintendo and Sony will make leaps with their next upgrades.  We've not heard anything yet regarding Zune HD's gaming capability and we might not until Windows Mobile 7 is out.

It's safe to assume that all three video gaming giants will have gaming stores for wireless downloads like Apple's iTunes app store.  Microsoft will have an advantage in that its OS is a mobile platform whereas Nintendo and Sony's platforms are largely gaming in nature.  We'll have to see if Microsoft does go with a dedicated gaming device at the end of the day, like the DS or PSP, or modeled Zune/WM's gaming potential after Apple's strategy.

If Microsoft does decide to stress Windows Mobile's mobile computing capabilities and relegate the integrated Zune capability into the role of a sidekick, then it's natural who it's competitors will be.  In this case, we won't know until Microsoft has phones and mobile devices with WM 7 installed in the market.  WM 7 maybe going up against Android 2, iPhone 3.0, WebOS 1.0, fall 2009 Blackberries if it comes out early 2010.  Closer to the middle of 2010, the comparisons will be totally different at that time.  At that time, Zune's media capabilities will be at a disadvantage.  Also, keep in mind that Apple is pretty good at upgrading the iPhone OS every two or three months with new features.

I've also wondered if Microsoft will aligned a Zune gaming device (likely powered by Windows Mobile) closer with Windows or the Xbox.  Or neither.  Microsoft can make Zune Marketplace open to all of its proprietary platforms and provide users the choice of deciding if they want to play their music over the PC or Xbox.

A bit confused?  Yeah, me too.  Most folks have left the Zune for dead but months later, Microsoft surprises us with the Zune HD (did I mentioned that in the case of Zune HD, the "HD" is for the HD radio and has nothing to do with video?).  It is proof that Microsoft has finally decided on a strategy for its mobile platforms.  For Zune and WM fans, and mobile users in general, the mobile computing, and maybe gaming market is going to get really exciting in 2010.

Note:  In Microsoft's press release, there were a lot of missing details.  Maybe I'm an optimist but I hope Microsoft purposely left out information for competitive reasons and it is saving it all for a final announcement a la a special Zune event in the fall.  Love to hear more about its current functions (unannounced ones, I hope), storage, battery life, and pricing.

Source:  On Apple

Should Sony And Nintendo Worry About Apple, Now?

I've long been in the camp that doesn't believe the iPhone platform is a threat to Sony or Nintendo.  I'm a little less so now but there have been moves by Apple in recent months to position the iPod Touch as a gaming machine in addition to being a great iPod.

Here's the number to consider:  37 million iPhones and iPod Touches sold through the latest quarter.  And the momentum is set to increase as Apple is due to release their next iPhone, iPod Touches selling better than expected, and over 9,000 games in the iTunes App Store.  Oh, did I mention how easy it is to download a game?  Any game?

At last count, PSP stands at 50 million while DS is at 100 million units sold.  Granted that DS and PSP has about three years' head start on Apple, we also have to be mindful of that fact.  PSP and DS are dated technology as far as gaming goes.  We can pretty much be sure that Apple will refresh its hardware on an annual basis.  

Those are just the facts that I want to point out before going further.  So, let's ask again:  should Sony And Nintendo Worry About Apple, Now?

Well, they definitely have to keep an eye on Apple.  And once DS2 and PSP2 comes out and Apple continues to hold its own, then they need to worry big time.  At issue isn't just gaming but what these gaming handhelds are capable of achieving.  Let's examine each issue that Apple has done right to make the iPod Touches and iPhones potential gaming competitors to the DS and PSP:

• iTunes App Store.  Just about everyone's making one.  And in a few months, we'll know where things stand for RIM and Android since they've got the only viable operating stores for their platforms.  In about a year, we'll see Microsoft and others join the party.  But I have a feeling things won't be as rosy as iTunes.  Sony and Nintendo will have to take a hard look at how their handhelds and games ecosystem best fit their fans.  I've got a lot of confidence in Nintendo to innovate but over the years Sony has failed to challenge Apple in media and hardware design, particularly with their unfocused attempts at dethroning the iPods.
• Ease of creating apps.  35K Apps as of today.  Over 9K are games.  In about six months, I can see that number move up to 15K.  One of the biggest complaints developers have about developing for the PS3 is how difficult and cumbersome it is.  Nintendo and Sony would have to match the support, tools, and appeal that developing for the iPhone has.  Here's one thing they can start from the beginning:  learn from Apple's insane-make-no-sense approval process.  That'll go a long way in making developers feel secured.  And as it traditional in the gaming industry, Nintendo and, in particular, Sony will need to secure exclusive titles.  Mario and company will need to really step it up.
• Multimedia functions.  Forget about out-mp3ing the iPod function.  However, they will need their own libraries of music and video.  

Here's what Sony and Nintendo has to focus when Apple becomes a real threat:

• Go where Apple won't go.  You've got buttons.  Use them in ways that Apple can't.
• When the new systems come out.  When your app store start chugging along, stop playing defense.  Nintendo will do whatever it wants.  I love that fact.  Sony will be tempted to react.  It needs to make Apple and Nintendo react for once.  
• Add ebook and TV functions to the systems.  
• Add wireless connection.  I'm not just talking about Wi-Fi.  Change hthe dynamics of mobile communication and gaming are today.  With rumors swirling about Apple's iPhone-less device for Verizon, this is something that Sony can excel at as well.  A gaming device with always on connection to the Internet and the Sony gaming network will go a long way in getting gamers hooked.  
• Leverage the Mii and Playstation networks.  What's Apple got?  MobileMe?  Right...

In examining Apple's advantages and how Sony and Nintendo can continue to put distance between their respective gaming handhelds from Apple's mobile devices, we can sort of see the different visions each company sees for mobile gaming in the future.  Each will leverage its own technology and properties neither the other two cannot duplicate.  

At the end of the day, there is likely going to be little change in the mobile gaming industry even if Apple manage to insert itself as the third wheel in the market.  Apple is about selling hardwares.  Nintendo will try to appeal to a larger gaming audience.  Sony will like fits somewhere in the middle.  

Perhaps not in a year or two.  But somewhere down the line, Apple's gaming potential will need to be taken seriously.  By the end of the year, the number of Apple mobile devices may well reach 60-70 million.  The next billionth app downloaded isn't going to take 10 months.  

Netbook 2.0

The biggest news in the netbook realm is that Acer has gained quite a bit of ground with their Aspire netbooks and that netbook sales are eating up shares in the laptops world at the expensive of their bigger but more capable brethren. More than that, it's killing margins and revenue growth at HP and Dell.

It's beginning to look like a downward spiral at this point. But some are beginning to come out to the market with a different take on netbooks. We'll come to this point in a bit.

First, please read Onxo's previous post on what happened to the promises of netbook. SSD. Long battery life. Instant-on.

Now, let's come back. Netbooks are evolving as they should. Technology evolves. But they're evolving into bigger netbooks. More power requirements. Faster chips (though you wouldn't know it). It's become a laptop again but without the optical drive. But they carry a higher price. Still, it's a netbook wanting to do more.

Eventually, the margins and revenues on that will suffer as well. Netbook makers are fooling themselves. They need netbooks in their line but they all need products that differentiate themselves from the rest.

Sony has the Viao P and, well, Apple has nothing. But neither companies want to have anything to do with netbooks. For the pack of PC makers, someone needs to get started on netbook 2.0 so that they can break out of this shell they're in. It's killing them. I mean that literally.

Netbooks - What Happened To Instant On? Give Us A Real Netbook

One of the best advertised features of the netbooks when the EEE PC came out was the promise of fast startup or instant on and long battery life.

Well, so far, I have not seen anything close to anything like it.  The promises of solid state drives and startups haven't been what we were promised.

In fact, things have gone in reverse.  To drive prices down, cheap and older motherboards have been used like Intel's 950 chipset.  Standard drives became the normal as netbook makers realized people are using their netbooks as laptop or desktop replacements.  In fact, battery life have  been dismal and the native Linux OS were inefficient and largely replaced with the aged but true Windows XP.  If not XP or Linux, then its OS X.

I think it's time someone come out with a real netbook.  One that boots up in seconds.  One that offers long battery life because it uses fast efficient SSD drives and a power management that allows for all day use instead of the 2-3 hours or the 5 hours of battery life only because of 6-cell batteries.  

Make it a real netbook.  Get rid of the video out.  Do we really need HD playback?  A netbook should be not replacing any regular computers.  If it's a task or job needs a regular laptop, get a real desktop.

I suppose today's state of netbooks maybe largely due to the sagging global economy.  But at the same time, increasing netbook sales have failed to augment regular computer sales but instead contribute to shrinking revenues and markets.

It is a wonder why Sony's Viao P costs closer to $1000? Apple has not come out with their answer to the netbook?  It's quite simple.  There is no answer to the netbook as it exists today.  But there are some qualities that netbook makers should consider for what we originally though netbooks would bring to mobility:

• Light.  3lbs are fine but there are subnotes in that range.  The Macbook Air quickly comes to mind.  Two pounds would be ideal.  2.5 is acceptable if it means a bigger battery.
• Fast.  E-mails.  Surfing the web.  IM.  Standard office or social tasks that make up much of daily digital communication.
• Wireless.  3G.  Wi-Fi.  Wireless USB.  No cords.  Even wireless charging.  Evidently, the technology is there.  Ask Palm about charging the Pre.
• Long runtime.  I don't want to go overboard here.  I'm not talking about days.  I can dream but I dare not make such a request.  But make it run for a day.  Certainly, that isn't too much to ask.  

Are such conditions unreasonable to ask or difficult to meet for the likes of Apple, Sony, or an innovative and hungry startup?  Maybe there's a reason why netbooks are so cheap.  It's a good thing.   However, it doesn't mean we should accept the state of mobility as it is today.

Note:  When asked about Apple's answer to the netbook, Jobs jokingly (or maybe he wasn't) answered the iphone was Apple's answer to the netbook.  No, it's not.  But close.  Recent days, it's been blogged to death that Apple has "ideas" about the netbook market.  I wonder if Jobs hinted at Apple's plans but no one was really listening?

Busy Mobile 2009

A lot of tech companies have done well in the last few  years.  Some have done better than others.  That is without a doubt.  So, it's safe for us at Onxo to say that we won't see the kind of wholesale failures that this credit market has inflicted on the banks and investment firms.

So, Samsung, Acer, Dell, HP, RIM, and Apple will likely be keeping mobile warriors happy with new softwares and gears through this economic downturn.  I truly envy those with disposal capital to spend on these cool toys.

First up will be GSMA in Barcelona.  Yes, my fellow American mobile warriors.  Not everything revolves around the US I'm afraid.

A lot of mobile gears will make their debut between Feb 16-19.  Heck, even Acer is getting in on the action after they took the pole position with netbook sales.  A quick glance at the exhibitor list has HP, Sony, RIM, and Samsung at the show.  From the list, it looks to be a busy event.

It's no Davos but I think Barcelona is where mobile folks wants to be.  Who cares if Clinton, Putin, or the diminishing bankers aren't here.

Then what?  Looking at production cycles of the past, we may see RIM refresh some of their smartphone lines.  I doubt we'll see a new version of Bold or Storm in the first quarter.  I would say second quarter is possible but third quarter more likely.

For Google's Android, we're suppose to get an update, Cupcake, any time now.  A hardware update is direly needed.  Seriously, compared to the sleekness of the iPhone, Bold, and Pre, the G1 leaves a lot to be desired.

Besides, HTC, others are also working on their own Android phones.  Samsung and Motorola.  Samsung is doing well and Motorola is looking at an Android phone, a Pre of their own, to save what's left of their mobile device operation.

And speaking of Pre, this is going to be interesting.  Palm didn't give up a date.  I wouldn't even call "some time in the first half of 2009" a range.  Are you kidding me?  Your whole future rides this and you can tell your fans and investors when it'll come out?  Regardless, the Pre has me excited and I'm hoping for a T-Mobile version in the second half of 2009.  I'm not switching to Sprint just to use it.

Okay, you probably think I'm going right into Apple and the iPhone.  Not yet.  I'm wondering what Nokia is up to.  Lots of folks believe Apple will take the crown for smartphones (I still don't think of the iPhone as just a smartphone) but Nokia has been in this business for a long time.  They've seen what RIM did with Storm and how Android hasn't quite set the mobile world on fire.  Sight still on the iPhone.  N97 is pretty cool but much as with the rest of the industy, it looks more like a "me too" rather than anything revolutionary.  However, I'll take that over the G1 any day.

Now, Apple.  No idea or clue.  We'll see the iPod Touch refreshed in the fall just in time for what's likely to be another dismal Holidays Season.  More memory - definitely.  Other features are likely but with voice just added with 2nd gen iPod Touch, we might see more softwares that utilize it.  The headset could be upgraded to one with voice capability like the one they're selling now.

iPhone.  Money's on June/July time frame.  There's no hurry right now for Apple to rush anything out.  Personally, I'll settle for longer battery life with 3G use and more memory.  I kind of like the first iPhone look. These plastic white and black cases doesn't do it for me.  Expect Apple to make it thinner if they can.  I think most of the improvements will happen on the software front rather than hardware.  Love to see more Jetson features but given the battery life as it is, it's not gonna happen.  Rumors will carry us through boring days but don't get too excited, okay?

Now, netbooks, UMPC, and tablets.  I probably wouldn't have used one (given how poor I am) but I was majorly upset when Nokia ended their N810 WiMax edition.  Dude, what's up with that?  Ever heard of perseverance, Nokia?

We're likely going to see a new tablet from Nokia in 2009.  It really hasn't done much with it nor has Nokia promote the heck out of it either.  It stands to reason that if they spend even a quarter of the effort they spend on the handsets, the N820 or whatever they decide to number it will really be one heck of a device.  Add E-ink tech in there and it'll really blow the Kindle out of the water.

This goes the same for the iPhone platform.  Already e-reading is very popular on the iPhone and iPod Touch.  I spend a great portion of my time on these Apple devices reading.  Of course, I love to a bigger screen just for that.  I can really use a tablet based on the iPhone platform but that's wishful thinking.  We'll see Apple tablet rumors another three to four times in 2009 but I doubt we'll actually see the device.  Nokia and Archos can really take this opportunity to rule this segment of the market.

And guys, innovate.  Don't think just because Apple doesn't have a tablet means you can sit pretty.  They're perfecting another "insanely great" revolution here.

And how about Android on a netbook or UMPC?  Well, that's difficult to say.  I'm sure Google and Android partners has locked up some top engineers and won't let them see the light of day until they crank out something really cool.  Okay, forget the cool part.  Just Android on a netbook or tablet.

It'll be a busy year as device makers try to grab an increasing mobile market that is expanding beyond simple handsets and smartphones.

So, how about mobile gaming?  DSi for America in April.  That's so lame.

Briefly about Apple gaming.  I honestly don't know if anyone is afraid of the iPhone or iPod Touch in gaming but I'm sure Nintendo and Sony are looking at the multi-touch potential really hard.  And given the diminishing pricing on in the app store, I think tier one developers aren't crazy about bring over their franchise games to Apple's mobile platform.  There are a few.  Konami has a few coming and EA with Spores.  But we'll have to see how these folks make out with volume instead.  Love to see a great Madden or Tiger Woods though.

Back to DSi.  With it's older DS sibling, it's outselling PSP in Japan...and pretty much everywhere else.  Sony needs PSP2.  Again, Onxo will not traffic rumors but we've heard a lot of PSP2 chatter lately.  It means nothing without Sony confirming it.

PSP 3000 came out in August of 2008 (wiki), so if PSP2 comes out this summer or the fall, that would really be something to watch.  Take that, iPod Touch!

Okay, but the thing to watch for mobile gaming is Nintendo and Sony's app stores.  Those we'll see in 2009.

And speaking of app stores, just about every mobile platform from Windows Mobile to Nokia to RIM will have one this year.

Like I said, 2009 will be quite busy.  Mobile warriors, rejoice!

Link:  Mobile World Congress

Netbooks Hot, Revenues Not

Can anyone really not see this coming?

Even as mobile warriors snatched up netbooks by the millions because of their mobiliyt, ease of use, light weight, and, in some models, speed.  

However, there is an impact as a result of this.  Lower revenues.  But more than that, it really speaks the weakness of the sector as PC growth grew a mere 1% while revenue dropped 20%.

Liluputing's blog has an interesting note.  Even while netbook sales skyrocketed, I have always thought some folks bought them because as a secondary computer, again for it's mobile qualities.  But we'll know in 2009 if the netbook invasion will continue as economic conditions have curtailed consumer spending worldwide.

It's my belief that the industry is in trouble if mobile users decide netbooks and low-cost computers are the way to go.  For years now, we have been devoid of innovation and this lack of compelling reasons for consumers to upgrade.

This can turn into a vicious cycle for the computer firms that are relying on netbooks to prop up their sales. With shrinking revenues and profit margin combined with a lack of vision and innovation, we can be looking a downward spiral not unlike what we've seen with the television industry in the 80s.  

Note:  There's a reason why Sony come out with the Viao P.  And I applaud their decision to come at the netbook segment in a different way.  Now, I like good inexpensive tech as the next guy.  I love my MacWind.  But Sony will insulate itself from a shrinking revenue pie.  

Impact on mobile users:  I think netbooks will only get cheaper and cheaper.  I'm talking about XO cheap.  The magic number for netbooks is going to be $200.  There's a chance we'll reach in 2009 particular if the economy worsens and these PC guys start eating their young.

Source:  Litiputing

Apple To Set Next Mobile Standards

First let me say I'm a fan of all things mobile - gadgets, life, technology, and so forth. I'm well-read but no expert (my expertises lie elsewhere).

However, it is logical to assume that if you're the leader in any particular industry or market, you are likely to be able to set standards for the rest to follow, whether they like it or not. Apple is certainly in this unique position to do just that with their iPhone platform.

According one report, Apple has a good chance of displacing Nokia as the top smartphone developer with 40% of the market share by 2013. That is a lot of mobile devices on which you can dictate to the market in terms of prices, features, and the level of innovation.

I'll get more into the various aspects of this potential Cupertino dominance later but it is incredible how far things have come since June 2007 when the first iPhone went on sale. Now, just about everyone is forced to have an app store for their mobile platform. Tie-in services are like to come from Nokia and Sony as Apple has with its web services.

Now, wireless standards. G4. To put it simple, it's WiMax. It's LTE. It's difficult to figure out just where Apple would go as more and more mobile users are likely to choose the iPhone as their mobile platform. When it comes time to negotiate new terms with wireless providers, it potentially provides Apple with the leverage to demand for more features to be accessible over the data network.

Should that happen, we can see potential for new changes in mobile life. We'll get into whether Apple enclosed platform model is good for mobile warriors later on.

Sony's Netbook Game Changer?

A couple of days ago, we posted a wireless briefing on what's going on this week.  One of the notes we posted was about Sony's secret answer to the netbook.

Through and accident or otherwise, some information are now out.  Keep in mind that we don't have the compete picture just yet.  However, given what we've read online, this is quite something.

It remains what the rest of the missing information are.  Price, availability, battery life, and overall mobility performance.

• Two models
• 9.5" by 4.5".  To give everyone a bit of a perspective, the 
• High speed wireless access - 3G, Wi-Fi
• 8" Screen with 1600x768 LED - this is very good.  By comparison, most netbooks offer 1024 by 600.  We're talking about almost twice the number of pixels.
• 1.33Ghz Intel chip - could be a slower Atom.
• 60GB hard drive - 128GB SSD for the rich.

Of course, two very important details were left out:  price and battery life.  Over at On Apple, I've offered my opinions and gusstimation on what Apple's netbook solution is going to be.  Obviously, Sony has its own idea here.  Both Apple and Sony consider themselves to be the BMW and Mercedes of the computer industry respectively (or Mercedes and BMW...).  Obviously, my idea and Sony's netbook soluion here will allow both companies to command a premium and still compete on some level with the netbooks.

We'll know in January, possibly CES what Sony has cooked up for us.

Source:  Electronista

Quick Mobile News Bits and CES Expectations

Here's a couple of mobile news bits to keep in mind as we enter the new year.

The CES, Consumer Electrontics Show, in Las Vegas is merely a few weeks away.  For those of us who didn't find this year's mobile gear offerings too compelling, 2009 should be pretty good. 
Word on the street is that Palm will finally make a serious effort to retake the mobile market it once dominated with a new mobile platform and devices.  Also, it helped that they received an $100 million cash infusion that should sustain them.  Boy, this Cobolt thing better be good.

RIM also got in on a bit of news last week by announcing a great quarter.  I think they've regain their footing.  Watching out, folks.  And by folks, I mean Microsoft, Google, and others. 

Then there's Android news.  New features.  For sure new phones in 2009.  G2, G3...you get the idea.  I do wonder if Android will break out and get into the netbook market. 

Certainly Sony is getting into the hype and secrecy business with a new Vaio.  Folks seem to believe it's a netbook.  The only reason I'm putting this bit of info on Onxo is that it's not a rumor.  However, your speculation is just as good as anyone's at this point.  Netbook, Viao tablet (I hope!), or something totally different.  I'm hoping for a Viao with PSP capability.  And since I just mentioned it, I know that it'll never happen. 

We're likey to more information trickle out in the next couple of weeks leading up to CES.  With Macworld seemingly dead (largely because Steve Jobs will not be the keynote speaker), more attention should be on mobile offerings from other tech companies.

LINKS:

• $100 million for Palm.
• Revolutionary Viao
• Sony's secret Viao page

Encroaching on Nintendo's Turf

Can Nintendo afford to upgrade every so often while mobile devices like smartphones have a shorter upgrade cycle?  The reason I posed this question is because a lot of smartphones and mobile devices are now making gaming one of its main features or soon will be.

Granted that Nintendo has sold millions and made gazillions from its handheld devices dating back to the original Game Boy, I wonder if Nintendo needs to upgrade their devices on at least an annual basis or even shorter cycle given the encroachment of mobile devices like the iPhone and iPod Touch.

More and more, it looks like Apple is serious about making more out of gaming than anything originally though.  I don't see folks getting torn up between Nintendo's DS offerings and iPod Touches when they consider a mobile gaming device yet.  Not for a while.

Nintendo will do just fine if they want to make a device that is gaming first and other functions are secondary.  Nintendo fanboys are just as loyal and likely have a larger following.  If the legendary gaming giant continues to innovate and not take them for granted, they'll follow where Nintendo leads.

And Apple is not the only people Nintendo has to worry about.   While I can't say I have any clue where Apple plans on taking the iPod Touch (I've got a few theories), others like Sony and Microsoft with Apple on the consumer mobile phone front and that means they'll have to offer compelling gaming as well.

Nintendo's problem with Sony is that Sony has a legacy and it is well known world-wide for its phones and Vaio laptops.  Sony can leverage its mobile gaming offerings in ways Nintendo can't.  PSP2 is a bit far off still (according to Yahoo).  But can we expect an iPod Touch-like device from Sony that merges PSP or even creating a "Vaio Touch" with PSP gaming?  Wouldn't you love seeing one of those?

Microsoft could be closer to releasing something to compete with the iPod Touch and iPhone than Sony.  Nintendo doesn't have to worry about Microsoft moving into mobile gaming the way it has to worry about Sony.  For the most part, I'm not sure Redmond knows what it really wants to do.  Zune phone is a given.  Zune gaming is likely but it has to decide if it'll be Zune gaming or Xbox mobile gaming.  Do it wrong and it'll confuse the heck of consumers.

Bottomline for Nintendo is if it can afford for the coming mobile gaming war to come to it or strike out at it's competitors now before it becomes an issue.

Source:  Yahoo News

Note:  I've largely excluded RIM, HP, Dell, and Nokia in all this.  It'll be interesting to see how they can fit into the mobile communication and gaming platform debate.

Quick Thought On Mobile Gaming - Those clouds over the horizon may mean war

Over at On Apple, we find out that Konami is about to back up Apple's assertion that the iPlatform (iPhone, iPod Touch) is a serious gaming platform with 4 new games.  All legacy titles. 

Now, I don't know if Nintendo or Sony is quaking in their boots (I don't think they wear boots though) about Apple.  I doubt it.  Not yet anyway.

However, there have been rumors about PSP2.  Engadget just sort of poured some cold water on that talk.  Still, we know it's gotta be coming.  We just don't know if it'll be PSP2 or PSPhone, or both.  Okay we do.  But I have to wonder just how cool it'll be if it is the PSPhone instead of just PSP2. 

And how about Nintendo?  With DSi, Nintendo added features to the system beyond just gaming.  It sure took its time doing it but I'm sure more non-gaming features are due out.  And we also have to wonder if Nintendo will becoming out with a DSphone or it's happy with DSw (widescreen - I made it up just now).

Who else is left?  Redmond.  Zunephone is coming.  It's a matter of time.  And you're saying it's gotta have gaming too.  We agree.  Microsoft will be a bit more interesting.  It's got Zune, Xbox, and Windows Mobile.  It'll have to figure out how to balance between competing with Apple on the entertainment as well as the enterprise front. 

I'll get into the dynamics of a gaming war between these four later but one thing is for sure, the entrenched players, Nintendo and Sony, have a lot going for them but Apple and, possibly, Microsoft aren't folks you just brush aside.

Source:  Engadget