CEOs Sacked, Cloudy Forecast. Consolidation Coming?

Here are the new kids on the block: Samsung, Motorola, HTC. Maybe LG.

Here are the guys who don't get it. Let's call them the "old guys": Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Dell, HP...though HP gets a pass because its Palm acquisition has yet to play out. RIM probably belongs here too given the limitations they've put on Playbook and the weird marketing.

Wild Cards: Amazon And Barnes and Noble. Sony And Nintendo Should be with the Old Guys but I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt.

So far, the new kids are doing well. Dazzling the market with new Windows Phone 7 and Android gears. And just completed 3 months of 2011, we'll see more Android 3, Honeycomb, tablets hit the market and continue what the iPad did last year: putting a hurt on the laptop market and possibly finishing off the netbooks.

The old guys spew a lot of double talk about how their experience in enterprise will ultimately demonstrate that they new guys's tablets, including the iPad, will not have a chance. They came out with fuzzy math to show how the tablet is more expensive.

And yet, so far, vaporware.

Because it's a Friday afternoon, let me put this out there. Dell is going to fail. The rest of the old guys probably will struggle bit time as well as the mobile market shifts in terms of needs and what the new type of computing the tablets represent.

And like HP having to go out and buy Palm for the Web OS, I wonder if others will need to do the same to stay viable over the next decade.

Dell has to make an acquisition or two. As an old guy, Dell is still making loads of cash. And the PC market isn't just going to disappear overnight. And of the new guys, Motorola Mobile (MMI) is the weakest and smallest.

Can Dell come in and scoop them up and instantly gain strong street cred with Xoom and Droid? It has done that in the past with the gaming laptop maker, Alienware. On top of that, there's talk that Motorola is making their own OS to distance themselves from Android and Windows Phone 7.

Dell will probably see what their lineup will do against others. It will gain no traction and the blogs and investors will demand action. They'll probably have to go out buy what they need. All that matters is when Michael Dell pulls the trigger. I'm predicting it'll be Motorola because RIM will be too expensive. Plus, RIM's got a couple of erratic co-CEOs that might clash with Dell.

For the other old guys, 2011 will be exciting not because of their new products which are largely based on old thinking but what they will do once they fail. Aside of HP's Touchpad, the rest of the Android tablets will be hard to differentiate. And though some might hope that a Windows tablet OS might save them, that is probably a 2012 thing, more likely 2013 given Micrsoft's track record to promise but under deliver.

The ebook sellers and the gaming guys, Wildcard guys, present a very interest dynamics going forward. And they have an opportunity to play big roles or completely disappear into nothingness. I'm looking foward to speculate what could come of them.

Right now, the situations for the old guys are more dire. HP has to succeed with the Touchpad and the next Web OS smartphones. Dell will fail miserably and look for an answer through a buyout.

The same is probably true for the rest of the old guys. Their only opening is in Asia where many of these old guys can still count as their stronghold. However, that window will close quickly once Apple has its iPad 2 supply issues figured out (Steve Jobs has $60+ billion in the bank to do just that) and more Apple stores start opening up.

Tablet Today: Where Is HP and Dell?

Everyone know that HP and Dell are the two biggest PC makers in the world. And while the PC market is not going anywhere (I happen to like laptops and think the future continues to be bright), there are additional facets to the mobile computing market. And laptop computing is being encroached upon.

Mobile devices like the iPhone and tablets are coming up fast. And in these two markets, HP has not made much of a splash and Dell barely dipped its toe in it. So, the question I posed is where do these two successful veterans of the PC market fit in the smartphone and tablet markets?

Samsung Tab Sighted In Public

I saw my first Samsung Tab. And in public. Not at a store but I really should go see one. No, I saw one at Borders in Pasadena where I was trying to get some work done.

And this is how it went down.

I did not notice it at first as I was busy hacking away on my Macbook, trying to promise myself that I would finish my nanowrimo project. For those who know what it is, I know, I know, it's already December 22nd. But better late than never.

But I felt someone staring in my direction. I looked up and saw a father standing in line with her daughter for their drinks. When the little girl walked away from her dad so she can get a better look at desserts, in the father's hand was a tablet.

I noticed that he was staring at the iPad that was on my table. I stared back. What was that thing? It was no iPad because the size of the thing was much smaller. The man was able to hold it like a big-sized paperback. And it had a wider-screen than the iPad.

And I know there is no iPad mini. Steve Jobs said so. No 7" iPad!

The staring ended when it was the father and daughter's turn to order. But after they got their drink, they walked towards my direction. I made a point to burn the image of the device into my mind.

Then there was a bit more staring. And I noticed the 3G signal on the screen as he walked by.

After they had walked behind me and I could no longer see the device, I googled the Tab. Then a couple of the other more well known Android tablets. It was the Tab!

So what do I think? I can't say much about it since I did not get to play with it or have it lay next to my iPad. I don't think the man would have agreed to anyway. Believe me when I tell you that his stares were icy.

But I noticed that he would tap on the screen with one hand. Specifically, with one finger. I tried to imagine myself doing that on the iPad. Easily done. I probably would type on the on-screen keyboard than tap at the keys in landscape model.

Then I imagine trying to type on the 7" screen of the Tab. I could probably do it by using my index fingers just like I already do now on the iPad in portrait model. But whenever I try that, I quickly tire and go back to the landscape model.

That's all for now. Oh, and the man was mostly reading from it. I think it was through the browser and not an ebook reader app or another reading app.

Again, just reporting on what I saw. I really should go into a Best Buy or visit one of the carriers to check it out. Anyway, I just thought I share my first Tab sighting. I'm not saying whether the 7" screen is adequate or not or whether Samsung jumped the gun by using Android 2.2.

Over all, it was pretty cool to see someone else using a tablet that did not have the Apple logo on it.

NYT"s David Pogue Reviews The Tab...Sort Of

Here's a video of the video pushing the issue a bit about the Samsung Tab running the Android.

Honestly, I don't know what to to make of it. I went away thinking David Pogue might be Bill Nye's long lost...ah...something...son, younger brother?

Android 2.2 Not Ready For Tablet Primetime Says Google

I don't want to get into a pissing contest with Steve Jobs about what is the perfect screen for the tablet. iPads have done will but Android's day under the tablet sky will come.

Right now there are a few unsanctioned Android tablets on the market if you're willing to chance it. Yeah, I thought so. So then therefor Samsung's Tab which will cost close to $1K unsubsidized, $400-600 depending on carrier subsidy.

But even then, Google has publicly said that Android 2.2 is not optimized for tablet use and we'll have to wait for Android 3.0 at the end of the year.

What's clear though is that Android tablets will flood the market early 2011. And if you thought waiting until then is hard, just wait until we have to chose between different versions, screen sizes, and which works best for us.

RIP: Cellular Phone Plans, September 3, 2010

I mark today the death of regular cell phone plans. Well, the beginning of a long but certain process to see the end of mobile phone plans. Why now? Well, if not now, when? If now me, who?

So, let's mark this day. And how?

Busy Mobile 2009

A lot of tech companies have done well in the last few  years.  Some have done better than others.  That is without a doubt.  So, it's safe for us at Onxo to say that we won't see the kind of wholesale failures that this credit market has inflicted on the banks and investment firms.

So, Samsung, Acer, Dell, HP, RIM, and Apple will likely be keeping mobile warriors happy with new softwares and gears through this economic downturn.  I truly envy those with disposal capital to spend on these cool toys.

First up will be GSMA in Barcelona.  Yes, my fellow American mobile warriors.  Not everything revolves around the US I'm afraid.

A lot of mobile gears will make their debut between Feb 16-19.  Heck, even Acer is getting in on the action after they took the pole position with netbook sales.  A quick glance at the exhibitor list has HP, Sony, RIM, and Samsung at the show.  From the list, it looks to be a busy event.

It's no Davos but I think Barcelona is where mobile folks wants to be.  Who cares if Clinton, Putin, or the diminishing bankers aren't here.

Then what?  Looking at production cycles of the past, we may see RIM refresh some of their smartphone lines.  I doubt we'll see a new version of Bold or Storm in the first quarter.  I would say second quarter is possible but third quarter more likely.

For Google's Android, we're suppose to get an update, Cupcake, any time now.  A hardware update is direly needed.  Seriously, compared to the sleekness of the iPhone, Bold, and Pre, the G1 leaves a lot to be desired.

Besides, HTC, others are also working on their own Android phones.  Samsung and Motorola.  Samsung is doing well and Motorola is looking at an Android phone, a Pre of their own, to save what's left of their mobile device operation.

And speaking of Pre, this is going to be interesting.  Palm didn't give up a date.  I wouldn't even call "some time in the first half of 2009" a range.  Are you kidding me?  Your whole future rides this and you can tell your fans and investors when it'll come out?  Regardless, the Pre has me excited and I'm hoping for a T-Mobile version in the second half of 2009.  I'm not switching to Sprint just to use it.

Okay, you probably think I'm going right into Apple and the iPhone.  Not yet.  I'm wondering what Nokia is up to.  Lots of folks believe Apple will take the crown for smartphones (I still don't think of the iPhone as just a smartphone) but Nokia has been in this business for a long time.  They've seen what RIM did with Storm and how Android hasn't quite set the mobile world on fire.  Sight still on the iPhone.  N97 is pretty cool but much as with the rest of the industy, it looks more like a "me too" rather than anything revolutionary.  However, I'll take that over the G1 any day.

Now, Apple.  No idea or clue.  We'll see the iPod Touch refreshed in the fall just in time for what's likely to be another dismal Holidays Season.  More memory - definitely.  Other features are likely but with voice just added with 2nd gen iPod Touch, we might see more softwares that utilize it.  The headset could be upgraded to one with voice capability like the one they're selling now.

iPhone.  Money's on June/July time frame.  There's no hurry right now for Apple to rush anything out.  Personally, I'll settle for longer battery life with 3G use and more memory.  I kind of like the first iPhone look. These plastic white and black cases doesn't do it for me.  Expect Apple to make it thinner if they can.  I think most of the improvements will happen on the software front rather than hardware.  Love to see more Jetson features but given the battery life as it is, it's not gonna happen.  Rumors will carry us through boring days but don't get too excited, okay?

Now, netbooks, UMPC, and tablets.  I probably wouldn't have used one (given how poor I am) but I was majorly upset when Nokia ended their N810 WiMax edition.  Dude, what's up with that?  Ever heard of perseverance, Nokia?

We're likely going to see a new tablet from Nokia in 2009.  It really hasn't done much with it nor has Nokia promote the heck out of it either.  It stands to reason that if they spend even a quarter of the effort they spend on the handsets, the N820 or whatever they decide to number it will really be one heck of a device.  Add E-ink tech in there and it'll really blow the Kindle out of the water.

This goes the same for the iPhone platform.  Already e-reading is very popular on the iPhone and iPod Touch.  I spend a great portion of my time on these Apple devices reading.  Of course, I love to a bigger screen just for that.  I can really use a tablet based on the iPhone platform but that's wishful thinking.  We'll see Apple tablet rumors another three to four times in 2009 but I doubt we'll actually see the device.  Nokia and Archos can really take this opportunity to rule this segment of the market.

And guys, innovate.  Don't think just because Apple doesn't have a tablet means you can sit pretty.  They're perfecting another "insanely great" revolution here.

And how about Android on a netbook or UMPC?  Well, that's difficult to say.  I'm sure Google and Android partners has locked up some top engineers and won't let them see the light of day until they crank out something really cool.  Okay, forget the cool part.  Just Android on a netbook or tablet.

It'll be a busy year as device makers try to grab an increasing mobile market that is expanding beyond simple handsets and smartphones.

So, how about mobile gaming?  DSi for America in April.  That's so lame.

Briefly about Apple gaming.  I honestly don't know if anyone is afraid of the iPhone or iPod Touch in gaming but I'm sure Nintendo and Sony are looking at the multi-touch potential really hard.  And given the diminishing pricing on in the app store, I think tier one developers aren't crazy about bring over their franchise games to Apple's mobile platform.  There are a few.  Konami has a few coming and EA with Spores.  But we'll have to see how these folks make out with volume instead.  Love to see a great Madden or Tiger Woods though.

Back to DSi.  With it's older DS sibling, it's outselling PSP in Japan...and pretty much everywhere else.  Sony needs PSP2.  Again, Onxo will not traffic rumors but we've heard a lot of PSP2 chatter lately.  It means nothing without Sony confirming it.

PSP 3000 came out in August of 2008 (wiki), so if PSP2 comes out this summer or the fall, that would really be something to watch.  Take that, iPod Touch!

Okay, but the thing to watch for mobile gaming is Nintendo and Sony's app stores.  Those we'll see in 2009.

And speaking of app stores, just about every mobile platform from Windows Mobile to Nokia to RIM will have one this year.

Like I said, 2009 will be quite busy.  Mobile warriors, rejoice!

Link:  Mobile World Congress

SanDisk - What To Do Next?

According to Daily Tech, Samsung, the new Sony, with its more dynamic and exciting innovative energy has permeated our lives over the last decade is looking to add SanDisk to its rank.  At one time, SanDisk was one of the hottest company in the tech industry is now scraping the bottom in terms of stock prices, battered by dropping memory chip prices.

I remember when SanDisk had growth most companies can only dream about.  With what mobile users can appreciate, it's SanDisk that has helped pushed the envelope and innovation to where we are today.  MP3 storage, flash memories, and now SSD.

With a potential takeover by Samsung, it will be difficult to gauge how this will impact mobile users as far as pricing, innovation, and availability is concerned.  For the short terms, we will not see much change.  However with NAND chip pricing falling on a regular basis, I wonder how this will impact the market with one less player.

And while not picking on any particular company, Samsung has in the past been a part of anti-competitive investigations involving memory chips.  To be fair, Intel is also a frequent target of government probes.  Still, I'm a bit weary.

But, perhaps with disk drive makers still make progress with traditional hard drives, competition with SSD will continue.  And adoption of mobile devices like the iPhone will also continue, this will likely drive innovation and price in the right direction as well.

Palm-Related Linux Phone Cancelled

Orange canceled the SGH-i800 by Samsung (Palminfocenter.com linked through The Inquirer) a phone was to be based on the Acess Linux Platform, an OS from Palmsource mashed together with Palm, Java, and other open-source projects.  The complication of the origin of the OS lies in a number of transactions and deals between Palm and Palmsource.

Needless to say, this is not a good sign for the Palm camp.  The reason sited for the cancellation was to take the device back into the hangar and rework it in light of recent mobile advances.  In other words, it cannot compete in the market.

What The Inquirer did mention, which Palminfocenter did not, was that Orange remains committed to Linux, just not ALP.  Who then?  LiMo.

However, Access is also a part of the LiMo foundation.  So now what?  The Inquirer suggests Access release the Palm virtual machine for use with LiMo, giving potential users access to library of thousands of Palm applications and games.

Note:  There has been hope among users of other platforms like the iPhone and Blackberry that there will be virtual machines available in order to gain access to the very same vault of Palm software that many former Palm users have come to love.

Weekend Update and the Week Ahead

This weekend was suppose to be a slow one but the Department of Homeland Security gave us something to talk about.  A recent court decision ruled in favor of DHS' contention that laptops and other digital media were fair game, just like other luggage, subject to checks at US borders.  Thus, a disturbing directive from DHS has granted Customs agents the ability seize laptops and its data.  In fairness, it is an attempt to stop terrorists and contraband smugglers.  Of course, the government has yet to say anything about the same data they seize for analysis, whether it contains legal or illegal information, coming into the country through the Internet.

During the week, Onxo blasted IOC's capitulation to Beijing for allow the Communist government to redefine the meaning of free press for the rest of the world.  We also offered some important information for mobile warriors go overseas for business or leisure who may also be subject to espionage.  The same information also how applies to the new directives from DHS.

On lighter matters, we discussed the following:

• Midori - Microsoft's brand new OS coming in 2010 (but they really mean 2014)
• We think Microsoft should look in the mirror for the reason why they missed their Windows Mobile shipment target and why we think they may have done just that with a potential mobile surprise this fall.

Onxo Mobile Tips:

• How to save battery life on your mobile device.  This was covered two weeks ago but it is one of our most read articles.
• Avoid Losing Your Laptops (or forgetting you had a laptop with you at any time).
• Syncing iCal with Google Calendar (also Google Calendar with Outlook).
• How to get free WiFi at Starbucks or other ATT access points.

For the coming week, we'll discuss more about natural disaster preparations for mobile workers.  We'll sharing with you the changes in telecommuting for the American workforce.    This matter with the Department of Homeland Security will remain a focus and we want to make sure things are as they appear and report the facts before we overreact (we might do just for the fun of it).  

Also, we're hoping for more information from Blackberry, Samsung, and Sony on what's ahead for them for the month of August/September.  Microsoft missed their Windows Mobile sales target.  We think Redmond bares watching and not just what new iPods Apple may or may not be waiting in the wings.  

We want to know more about Android and what apps we can expect.  Maybe we'll have some comparisons with what the iPhone apps offering are so far.  

See you Monday!