Death Of Unlimited Wireless Internet - Hope Not

Those of us who are fortunately enough to have relatively unlimited wireless Internet, and I say relative because our definition of unlimited is not the same as those of wireless providers, we need to remember these days when we tell our grandchildren about them. Because like ATT, Verizon Wireless (VW) is looking to rid themselves of us freeloaders and institute a similar pricing and limitation on data like Ma Bell.

How will this play out?

Wireless Backhaul Capacity To Triple

An In-Stat research report found there will be a three fold increase for more capacity between now and 2013.  Seriously, this only confirms all the smartphones and mobile devices I see everywhere now.  I was at the supermarket and iPhones and Blackberries were everywhere.  Texting, reading, and doing who knows what mobilely.


According to the report, the following after key data that immediately stood out:

• WiMAX and LTE will require backhaul needs of 80-100 Mbps. Their deployments will increase the need for new backhaul solutions.
• While microwave will remain the most common last mile link medium, Ethernet is playing an increasing role in supporting backhaul needs for cellular and WiMAX networks.
• 90,000 Gbps of capacity in the last mile of the backhaul network will be needed by the end of 2013 to support the worlds cellular and WiMAX networks.
• In Asia/Pacific, the cellular backhaul last mile backhaul capacity for LTE will be 2,500 Gbps

I'm willing to bet that in 2010, these numbers In-Stat provided will likely be revised upward.  With billions at stake in hardware, software, and services, providers will be pressured to increase capacity as well as reliability.  I don't know if the report took into account the potential of IPTV, VOIP, video chats, and a couple of hundred of millions of subscribers who will eventually rely on their mobile devices to the friends, family, and the world at large.


And with services like WiMax that has a strong chance of service as a residence or business' main Internet gateway, G4 networks will play a greater role along side traditional Internet services like DSL and cable.


Source:  In-Stat

What Happened to RIM?

Research In Motion from Canada has been a darling on NASDAQ and Wall Street in general.  If you're a mobile warrior working in finance, tech, and Internet industries, you've got a Blackberry.

Since even before the iPhone came out and the economy started tanking, there was already a move by RIM to increase its reach beyond business users.  Hence, more consumer friendly features were added.  However, as enticing as it was, once the iPhone and a lot of other consumer friend smartphones started competing with Blackberries, things apparently got ugly for RIM.

RIM is still making money.  It is just not making money at the rate analysts on Wall Street would like them too.  After all, RIM's revenue forecast for the coming quarter outpaced estimates by a bit.  Still, it was the cost of new devices that will eat into the margin.

What is RIM to do?  Innovate, innovate, innovate.  Forget about what Apple or anyone else is doing.  In fact, RIM should expand in the goodwill the e-mail service has brought them.

Also maybe take a page out of Android's playbook.  Hook up with a music or video provider like Amazon.  As much as I love Apple products, I want to see competition for iTunes.

Going forward, RIM will need to look at the long-term picture and not worry about short to medium-term goals.  It is short-sightedness that got them to spend more than 350 million on pushing back against the iPhone.  And look where it got them.  They've lost half their valuation in less than a year.

Just don't do what Palm is doing with Centro.  It killed their margin and hurt their bottom line even though they've had success moving them.  The only winners in that scenario were the wireless providers and consumers.  I'm fine with consumers winning if RIM is willing to take the hit.

As CNBC analyzed , there is demand, they see no evidence of a slowdown in smartphone demand.  It's a matter of how confident RIM is about their products going forward.  If they feel they can compete well against existing products, RIM should be fine.  But if they have to take hits on pricing, boy, I don't know...

Silicon Alley Insider believes RIM will not repeat Motorola's RAZR mistake because in addition to sell phones, RIM also sell subscriptions.  Well, not so fast.  G1 has free push mail with Google and Apple has MobileMe (as bad as it is now, it'll only get better).

RIM has one choice:  make better products people will want to buy and make yourself recession-proof like Apple and Microsoft.

Note:  It's a great opportunity for everyone, not just RIM, with Microsoft possibly delaying Windows Mobile 7 to the second half of 2009.  Plenty of time for land grab.

Another Note:  RIMM down big today.  Massive downgrades ranging with target prices from $70-$90.  RIMM is being hammered for 25% today.  It'll recover some of that technically and from short-covers.  I don't think if short-selling ban by SEC covers stocks other than bank stocks.

Third Note:  Those who likes to hold grudges.  Macdaily News is infamous for making Apple haters eat their own words.

Prediction:  Apple will likely lower MobileMe's annual rate when new iLife comes out.  We'll discuss why at On Apple .