CEOs Sacked, Cloudy Forecast. Consolidation Coming?

Here are the new kids on the block: Samsung, Motorola, HTC. Maybe LG.

Here are the guys who don't get it. Let's call them the "old guys": Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Dell, HP...though HP gets a pass because its Palm acquisition has yet to play out. RIM probably belongs here too given the limitations they've put on Playbook and the weird marketing.

Wild Cards: Amazon And Barnes and Noble. Sony And Nintendo Should be with the Old Guys but I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt.

So far, the new kids are doing well. Dazzling the market with new Windows Phone 7 and Android gears. And just completed 3 months of 2011, we'll see more Android 3, Honeycomb, tablets hit the market and continue what the iPad did last year: putting a hurt on the laptop market and possibly finishing off the netbooks.

The old guys spew a lot of double talk about how their experience in enterprise will ultimately demonstrate that they new guys's tablets, including the iPad, will not have a chance. They came out with fuzzy math to show how the tablet is more expensive.

And yet, so far, vaporware.

Because it's a Friday afternoon, let me put this out there. Dell is going to fail. The rest of the old guys probably will struggle bit time as well as the mobile market shifts in terms of needs and what the new type of computing the tablets represent.

And like HP having to go out and buy Palm for the Web OS, I wonder if others will need to do the same to stay viable over the next decade.

Dell has to make an acquisition or two. As an old guy, Dell is still making loads of cash. And the PC market isn't just going to disappear overnight. And of the new guys, Motorola Mobile (MMI) is the weakest and smallest.

Can Dell come in and scoop them up and instantly gain strong street cred with Xoom and Droid? It has done that in the past with the gaming laptop maker, Alienware. On top of that, there's talk that Motorola is making their own OS to distance themselves from Android and Windows Phone 7.

Dell will probably see what their lineup will do against others. It will gain no traction and the blogs and investors will demand action. They'll probably have to go out buy what they need. All that matters is when Michael Dell pulls the trigger. I'm predicting it'll be Motorola because RIM will be too expensive. Plus, RIM's got a couple of erratic co-CEOs that might clash with Dell.

For the other old guys, 2011 will be exciting not because of their new products which are largely based on old thinking but what they will do once they fail. Aside of HP's Touchpad, the rest of the Android tablets will be hard to differentiate. And though some might hope that a Windows tablet OS might save them, that is probably a 2012 thing, more likely 2013 given Micrsoft's track record to promise but under deliver.

The ebook sellers and the gaming guys, Wildcard guys, present a very interest dynamics going forward. And they have an opportunity to play big roles or completely disappear into nothingness. I'm looking foward to speculate what could come of them.

Right now, the situations for the old guys are more dire. HP has to succeed with the Touchpad and the next Web OS smartphones. Dell will fail miserably and look for an answer through a buyout.

The same is probably true for the rest of the old guys. Their only opening is in Asia where many of these old guys can still count as their stronghold. However, that window will close quickly once Apple has its iPad 2 supply issues figured out (Steve Jobs has $60+ billion in the bank to do just that) and more Apple stores start opening up.

Sony Release Next Generation Portable Gaming - Yes, A Game Changer

In my family, I have always had respect for much of what Sony delivered in terms of electronics and innovation. And yes, the PSP was innovative. And with NGP, next-generation portable, Sony has once again showed that it is alive and well, and ready to kick sand in the eyes of Nintendo, Apple, and anyone else who says that its better days in mobile gaming was in the past.

Here's a rundown of the specs that is already rocking mobile gaming. You're going to get blown away big time.

Sony Will have Xperia Play, What about Nintendo?

Mario, Zelda, and the Pokemons have entertained us for years. Decades now. But with the mobile gaming landscape changing so far, what should Nintendo do? Should they remain in the hardware business? I think Nintendo has one more chance to get things right and that's the DSi.

But I think more and more, that's looking less likely to keep Nintendo in the game. Consider that fact that decaded gaming devices, consoles or handheld, live for 3-4 years at a time. In an era where the iPhone is updated annually and new Android devices released throughout a given year, Nintendo, or Sony's PSP for that matter, just cannot stay up with the trend.

It is increasingly looking like Sony will bite the bullet and merge PSP with its Xperia phone and call it Xperia Play. For Sony, there is a lot of risks but the rewards could be huge. How about Nintendo?

I see three options. I don't see Nintendo with the staying power to just push out dedicated mobile gaming devices.

1. Get into the phone business.  Apple did it and I'm sure Nintendo can find a Japanese phone maker who would be happy to help Nintendo with a DSphone.  Is this likely?  No but stranger things have happened.  Perhaps Nokia would a willing partner.
2. Get out of the hardware business completely.  Do what Sega did after Saturn expired.  Would you like to see Nintendo's starters and deep bench of libraries on the iPhone, Android, PC and Mac, Xbox 360, and PS3?  I see a lot of dollar signs there.  I don't see this happen unless Nintendo really cannot keep technically with the rest of the mobile market.  But it is certainly enticing and I would love to see it happen as a gamer.
3. Create a platform and license it to developers and hardware makers.  For instance, HTC can license Nintendo's designs to put it on its own phone.  So could Motorola, LG, Samsung, or anyone else who wants to let its users catch Pokemons to battle.  

I think I like the third option the best.  Like Google, Nintendo can come up with a reference device.  It can run on Android, Windows, WebOS or some Linux variant.  Hardware makers can build off that.  Devices would be subject to Nintendo's approval.  Once all conditions are met, Nintendo-approved devices can be manufactured and sold.

In a way, Nintendo would still be in the hardware business as an overseer, allow others to take the risk, and continue to build excellent games for it.  

Is this viable?  I think so.  If you want to play Nintendo games, you still have to buy Nintendo-approved devices.  

Malware And Network Attacks Via Mobile Soon To Be Realized

Two disturbing mobile news this week should have security analysts and mobile warriors on a bit of an alert. No, I'm not talking about the Blackberry issue with the United Arab Emirates and the Saudis. That situation is looking more and more like RIM is backing away and capitulating.

I'm talking about vulnerabilities in mobile OS and systems that can allow hackers to break into mobile systems to wreck havoc or spread malicious codes.

Yesterday, a hole in the iOS so big that it allow users to jailbreak their iPhone via a Web browser. I'm not that well read when it comes to the inner workings of a mobile platform but it does sound pretty bad.

And it gets worse.

Nintendo Tweets

Here are today's tweets on Nintendo and what I think about their mobile gaming plans:

Nintendo: Apple is the future battles will be with. (part 1)

Nintendo: Recently hit by slowing sales. XL version probably not helping much with sales except with senior citizens. (part 2)

Nintendo: 3DS is the future. I’m not sure that’s enough. Need to change rules of the game to compete. (part 3)

Nintendo: Don’t take eyes off Microsoft or Sony, guys. WM7 plus zune plus gaming. PSP2 with mobile computing and telephony (part 4)

Nintendo: App store needs to grow more. Debating about online gaming. Suggest Mario & Co try everything (part 5)

Nintendo: Bring online socials to DS. But needs to make it safe for kids (part 6)

Nintendo: I would play in a “Nintendo Park” or “Nintendo World” (part 7)

Nintendo: I would love to see a multi-touch Nintendo tablet. That would be so cool (part 8)

Nintendo: Maybe they should have bought Palm and WebOS. Too late. How about licensing with HP. (part 9)

Nintendo: Android OS with Nintendo gaming? That would stop iPhone and others in their tracks (part 10)

Nintendo: Interesting post on Nintendo’s views on Apple and what’s next for mobile gaming http://bit.ly/c8Sfmx (part 11)

Nintendo: I’ve got a lot of confidence in Maro and folks. Experienced death before like Apple. Future is still bright. (part 12)

Nintendo: They have the potential to even redefine mobile in ways that is Apple-esque. (part 13)

After iPad, Who's Next?

This iPad week whether mobile warriors from other camps like it or not. But it'll be over eventually and another platform will get the attention. So who might that be?

Amazon with Kindle? Sony with a slew of Viao tablets powered by PSP 2? Nintendo surprising us with DS tablet or Microsoft mashing Zune, Xbox , and WM7 into a revolutionary alternative to mobile computing?

How about HTC, Dell and HP? Well, I don't have much hope for these three based on what I see near-term but I like to be surprised.

More at Onxo Mobile Devices for analysis on who has the best chance of offering a complete mobile computing experience.

Mobile Summary - What's Been Happening In the Mobile Market

Things are moving very fast in the mobile world right now.  So, here is a brief summary of things that I've kept up with.

Android

• Android seems to be making a huge run for a chunck of the mobile users.  I haven't seen this kind of excitement in a platform with the number of different gears out there since the early days of Windows CE.  Even Dell, a traditional Redmond ally, is entering the mobile market with Android.  
• Droid is kicking up a lot of dust.  At who, well, that's hard to say now.  Though I don't like the keyboard or the boxy design, I like everything else about it.  Bigger screen than the iPhone with a whole lot more resolution.  And it's thinness is something worth noting.  All that without sacrificing battery life. Also, it runs Android 2.0.
• I recently rooted my G1 for tethering and installing Google Navigation.  I think this is why Android has such a large following.  Smart smart folks involved and it is more open than the iPhone will ever be.  Of course, that's both good and bad.

Windows Mobile

• I'll be honest here and say I don't know what's going on.  I know the HTC's HD2 is out.  But no WM 7 or Zune integration.  On the other hand, Zune gaming is looking good this week with additional 3D games.  As an Apple fan, I am contemplating getting a Zune HD just to see what the big deal is.  Yeah, I'm a gear lover.  I'll still be getting iPhones, Macbooks, etc. 

Palm Pre

• After the iPhone, I'd get the Pre.  Right now, the Android devices are underpowered and new gears won't be out until 2010 with better insides.  Today, Palm's stock price jumped on rumors that Nokia is looking to take it off the market.  I don't know if Nokia wants WebOS but with a bunch of former Apple guys with access to NOkia's deep pocket and treasure, wow, this would be better than if Dell picked up Palm.

iPhone Platform

• Not a good few weeks.  Okay, iPhone demand continues to be strong.  Shortages and stuff like that.  Except in China where today, it has sold 30K in about two weeks.  Orange managed that in one day.  But then, I wouldn't get a crippled iPhone either (no Wi-Fi in China).  
• Oh, and even as it provides a tool for developers to see how their app is doing through the approval process, Apple is facing a new revolt of sort
• There are now 100,000 apps with over two billion downloads.  
• Still waiting on the iTablet. Lots of blog chatters about Apple trying to save the print realm.  

ATT Versus Verizon

• This is interesting.  You know those 3G commercials?  Verizon is doing the same thing that Apple has being doing to Microsoft with the "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" campaign.  Alright, maybe VW took some liberty at how it wants to influence potential customers or VW customers looking to jump ship to join ATT.  ATT has decided it would have none of it no more and has sued VW to make them take off the commercials and for damanges.  ATT has a lot to lose as it is rumored that they will lose their iPhone exclusivity in 2010.
• ATT issued a memo disputing VW's claims.  More at electronista.
• Again, the commercial is pretty good for its entertainment value.

Nintendo

• It's never enough.  Nintendo is a cash machine but apparently, it's never enough in a capitalist society.  So, what happened?  Well, I'm thinking the economy has more to do with it but news and blogs are saying it has more to do with the iPhone.  Okay, maybe some but not all of it.  Still, it's been a while since I've bought a Nintedo handheld and I won't be getting it until it's like the DS 2 or something.  The next version of DSi will have bigger screens.  Let's hope that Nintendo decides to bring more than just that.  The iPod Touch is not completing with the DSi or PSP directly because it can do so much more.  But because it can do so much more and by the sheer installed base, it is getting a lot of attention from traditional gaming outfits.  It'll be interesting to see how Nintendo responds.  We already Know Zune is going into Windows Mobile and Xbox mobile gaming is likely just around the corner.  Maybe Nintendo should buy out Palm and add DS gaming to it?  What do you think?
• Crunchgear doesn't think Nintendo needs to worry about Apple right now.  Not yet.  I agree, for now.  Nintendo, with the recent price cut to the Wii is going into the important Holiday Season with more sales than Xbox, PSP, or PS 3.  

Google

• See the above Android section.
• Google just bought Gizmo5.  VOIP with Google Voice.  Match made in mobile heaven.  This is interesting because there were talks that Skype was interested in Gizmo5 until eBay, Skype, and the former owners of Skype settled their disagreement.  Imagine how this works out.  Android devices requiring only data access and calls via VOIP.  
• More on the Gizmo5 buyout:  Daily Wireless, CNet
• With the purchase of Gizmo5, look out for blogs and news reports about exploding VOIP markets.  Folks will be jumping on the bandwagon about it.  Take it easy.  Skype isn't going to sit this out.  But love to see Google Voice go at it with Skype.  An Edison-Tesla type of brawl in our time.
• Chrome OS is coming a lot nicely.  We should see it in the next few weeks.  
• While we're on Google, CNet has an interview with Google's CEO and made a claim that Docs will be just as good as Office.  About the Docs statement, I don't use OpenOffice for the same reason I don't use Docs as much.  You want to rival Office?  Check out Numbers from Apple.  Go ahead and copy it, Google.  Microsoft said it copied OS X.  So that's okay.

RIM/Symbian/Others

• This week, it was reported that phone sale growth resumed in the third quarter of 2009.
• 45 Million smartphones shipped worldwide,  representing a 5% growth. More if you're willing to pay $7000 for the rest of the report at Strategy Analytics.  Yeah, this is all I need to know.
• Here is a table lifted from IntoMobile.  Nokia is number one, followed by RIM and Apple.  Apple with just two models (and two various of the 3GS) may put a hurt on others next year.  Nokia is in the pole position with 39.3%.  RIM has 20.8% (great growth) with Apple trailing at 17.1%.  No one has has double digit marketshare or growth except folks in the "others" category.  
• Nokia, mentioned above, in looking to snatch Palm off the market, according to Barron's.  

Here's my thought in all of this.  The ideal situation is each of the mobile giants have an equal share of the market.  That way, it keeps them all honest and their innovation engines running high.

So, this has been what's going on the last couple of weeks in mobility.

Zune HD A Taste of What's To Come For Windows Mobile

Over at On Apple, we posted a "don't worry" opinion on what Zune HD means for iPod Touch developments and Apple fans.

However, it's not like we're saying Zune HD isn't a great hardware.  We just don't think it's the right comparison with the iPod Touch given Microsoft's own admission that Zune HD doesn't have a full-blown mobile OS and we've yet to see what else it's capable of doing, storage capacity (thought we think it'll be between 16-32GB), and how long the battery life will carry an user through the day.

We firmly believe that Zune HD, though a potentially formidable video player to be sure, is merely a taste for mobile warriors of what's to come from Redmond.  If you visit Gizmodo's first impression with the pictures and video, you'll see that Microsoft's risky decision to integrate Zune with Windows Mobile or even Microsoft's zPhone (Zune phone) later on may work out better than anyone believe (let's not kid ourselves.  A Zune phone is forthcoming).  In the past, Onxo wasn't sure that it was that integrating Zune and Windows Mobile was a move Microsoft need to make nor one that was likely to work out well.

Whatever Microsoft's answer to the current mobile offerings in the market (Android, Blackberries, iPhone, and Pre which has yet to be released), it's obvious that a lot of work was put into this.  There's no doubt that Zune HD has elevated mobile video entertainment to another level with the OLED screen.

What remains to be seen is what Windows Mobile 7 can hold up its end of the bargain in this two-prong OS.

What I'm curious about is the roadmap that Microsoft has laid out for mobile computing, mobile entertainment, and, lastly, Windows or the Xbox.

First the mobile realm.  The iPhone has garnered  a lot of attention with the surprising move into casual gaming, I'm still a year or two away from really believing that Apple's mobile platform has the staying power in gaming against entrenched veterans.  So the iPhone gaming may not be Microsoft's concern.  Rather, its foes Microsoft is more familiar with:  Nintendo and Sony.  It's a good bet that mobile gaming devices from Nintendo and Sony will make leaps with their next upgrades.  We've not heard anything yet regarding Zune HD's gaming capability and we might not until Windows Mobile 7 is out.

It's safe to assume that all three video gaming giants will have gaming stores for wireless downloads like Apple's iTunes app store.  Microsoft will have an advantage in that its OS is a mobile platform whereas Nintendo and Sony's platforms are largely gaming in nature.  We'll have to see if Microsoft does go with a dedicated gaming device at the end of the day, like the DS or PSP, or modeled Zune/WM's gaming potential after Apple's strategy.

If Microsoft does decide to stress Windows Mobile's mobile computing capabilities and relegate the integrated Zune capability into the role of a sidekick, then it's natural who it's competitors will be.  In this case, we won't know until Microsoft has phones and mobile devices with WM 7 installed in the market.  WM 7 maybe going up against Android 2, iPhone 3.0, WebOS 1.0, fall 2009 Blackberries if it comes out early 2010.  Closer to the middle of 2010, the comparisons will be totally different at that time.  At that time, Zune's media capabilities will be at a disadvantage.  Also, keep in mind that Apple is pretty good at upgrading the iPhone OS every two or three months with new features.

I've also wondered if Microsoft will aligned a Zune gaming device (likely powered by Windows Mobile) closer with Windows or the Xbox.  Or neither.  Microsoft can make Zune Marketplace open to all of its proprietary platforms and provide users the choice of deciding if they want to play their music over the PC or Xbox.

A bit confused?  Yeah, me too.  Most folks have left the Zune for dead but months later, Microsoft surprises us with the Zune HD (did I mentioned that in the case of Zune HD, the "HD" is for the HD radio and has nothing to do with video?).  It is proof that Microsoft has finally decided on a strategy for its mobile platforms.  For Zune and WM fans, and mobile users in general, the mobile computing, and maybe gaming market is going to get really exciting in 2010.

Note:  In Microsoft's press release, there were a lot of missing details.  Maybe I'm an optimist but I hope Microsoft purposely left out information for competitive reasons and it is saving it all for a final announcement a la a special Zune event in the fall.  Love to hear more about its current functions (unannounced ones, I hope), storage, battery life, and pricing.

Source:  On Apple

Should Sony And Nintendo Worry About Apple, Now?

I've long been in the camp that doesn't believe the iPhone platform is a threat to Sony or Nintendo.  I'm a little less so now but there have been moves by Apple in recent months to position the iPod Touch as a gaming machine in addition to being a great iPod.

Here's the number to consider:  37 million iPhones and iPod Touches sold through the latest quarter.  And the momentum is set to increase as Apple is due to release their next iPhone, iPod Touches selling better than expected, and over 9,000 games in the iTunes App Store.  Oh, did I mention how easy it is to download a game?  Any game?

At last count, PSP stands at 50 million while DS is at 100 million units sold.  Granted that DS and PSP has about three years' head start on Apple, we also have to be mindful of that fact.  PSP and DS are dated technology as far as gaming goes.  We can pretty much be sure that Apple will refresh its hardware on an annual basis.  

Those are just the facts that I want to point out before going further.  So, let's ask again:  should Sony And Nintendo Worry About Apple, Now?

Well, they definitely have to keep an eye on Apple.  And once DS2 and PSP2 comes out and Apple continues to hold its own, then they need to worry big time.  At issue isn't just gaming but what these gaming handhelds are capable of achieving.  Let's examine each issue that Apple has done right to make the iPod Touches and iPhones potential gaming competitors to the DS and PSP:

• iTunes App Store.  Just about everyone's making one.  And in a few months, we'll know where things stand for RIM and Android since they've got the only viable operating stores for their platforms.  In about a year, we'll see Microsoft and others join the party.  But I have a feeling things won't be as rosy as iTunes.  Sony and Nintendo will have to take a hard look at how their handhelds and games ecosystem best fit their fans.  I've got a lot of confidence in Nintendo to innovate but over the years Sony has failed to challenge Apple in media and hardware design, particularly with their unfocused attempts at dethroning the iPods.
• Ease of creating apps.  35K Apps as of today.  Over 9K are games.  In about six months, I can see that number move up to 15K.  One of the biggest complaints developers have about developing for the PS3 is how difficult and cumbersome it is.  Nintendo and Sony would have to match the support, tools, and appeal that developing for the iPhone has.  Here's one thing they can start from the beginning:  learn from Apple's insane-make-no-sense approval process.  That'll go a long way in making developers feel secured.  And as it traditional in the gaming industry, Nintendo and, in particular, Sony will need to secure exclusive titles.  Mario and company will need to really step it up.
• Multimedia functions.  Forget about out-mp3ing the iPod function.  However, they will need their own libraries of music and video.  

Here's what Sony and Nintendo has to focus when Apple becomes a real threat:

• Go where Apple won't go.  You've got buttons.  Use them in ways that Apple can't.
• When the new systems come out.  When your app store start chugging along, stop playing defense.  Nintendo will do whatever it wants.  I love that fact.  Sony will be tempted to react.  It needs to make Apple and Nintendo react for once.  
• Add ebook and TV functions to the systems.  
• Add wireless connection.  I'm not just talking about Wi-Fi.  Change hthe dynamics of mobile communication and gaming are today.  With rumors swirling about Apple's iPhone-less device for Verizon, this is something that Sony can excel at as well.  A gaming device with always on connection to the Internet and the Sony gaming network will go a long way in getting gamers hooked.  
• Leverage the Mii and Playstation networks.  What's Apple got?  MobileMe?  Right...

In examining Apple's advantages and how Sony and Nintendo can continue to put distance between their respective gaming handhelds from Apple's mobile devices, we can sort of see the different visions each company sees for mobile gaming in the future.  Each will leverage its own technology and properties neither the other two cannot duplicate.  

At the end of the day, there is likely going to be little change in the mobile gaming industry even if Apple manage to insert itself as the third wheel in the market.  Apple is about selling hardwares.  Nintendo will try to appeal to a larger gaming audience.  Sony will like fits somewhere in the middle.  

Perhaps not in a year or two.  But somewhere down the line, Apple's gaming potential will need to be taken seriously.  By the end of the year, the number of Apple mobile devices may well reach 60-70 million.  The next billionth app downloaded isn't going to take 10 months.  

Quick Mobile Updates

Some updates you'll want to be aware of in mobility this morning.

Yesterday, over at On Apple, we went into ATT's 2011 rollout of LTE.  It's like 18 months later than we expected.  Maybe it has to do with all those funds transferred to Apple.  Who knows.  But now, Verizon has gone ahead and said that they'll have rollouts in 2010, maybe a full hear ahead of rival ATT.  

I went ahead and said 3G, which will be speed up by that time will like help ATT blunt any defections but still, it's no wonder why Verizon has such loyal followings.  If not for the iPhone, I don't know where ATT will be today.  

Verizon will be using the 700Mhz spectrum they outbid everyone else for.  Remember back that for a while, we all thought (and hoped) that Google would make a serious run for it.  

Now, recall that the FCC stipulated the network must be open?  Let's see what that really means in wirelessspeak.  Remember, the wireless overlords want to protect us by being our gatekeepers.

Now some lighter news for mobile gaming.  DSi coming to the US on April 4th!  Not excited? Well, it's cost a recession digging $170!  Here's what more fitting in these tough economic times:  the initial colors will be in black and blue.  How's that for irony?

Over at On Android, I applauded the months of free apps on the Android Market.  But I wonder what'll happen to those apps once the marketplace for paid apps goes live.  Will G1 owners like myself wake up to have our apps tell us that we've got one more week of free use or else?

Link:

• CNet - Verizon 4G
• CNet - Nintendo

Busy Mobile 2009

A lot of tech companies have done well in the last few  years.  Some have done better than others.  That is without a doubt.  So, it's safe for us at Onxo to say that we won't see the kind of wholesale failures that this credit market has inflicted on the banks and investment firms.

So, Samsung, Acer, Dell, HP, RIM, and Apple will likely be keeping mobile warriors happy with new softwares and gears through this economic downturn.  I truly envy those with disposal capital to spend on these cool toys.

First up will be GSMA in Barcelona.  Yes, my fellow American mobile warriors.  Not everything revolves around the US I'm afraid.

A lot of mobile gears will make their debut between Feb 16-19.  Heck, even Acer is getting in on the action after they took the pole position with netbook sales.  A quick glance at the exhibitor list has HP, Sony, RIM, and Samsung at the show.  From the list, it looks to be a busy event.

It's no Davos but I think Barcelona is where mobile folks wants to be.  Who cares if Clinton, Putin, or the diminishing bankers aren't here.

Then what?  Looking at production cycles of the past, we may see RIM refresh some of their smartphone lines.  I doubt we'll see a new version of Bold or Storm in the first quarter.  I would say second quarter is possible but third quarter more likely.

For Google's Android, we're suppose to get an update, Cupcake, any time now.  A hardware update is direly needed.  Seriously, compared to the sleekness of the iPhone, Bold, and Pre, the G1 leaves a lot to be desired.

Besides, HTC, others are also working on their own Android phones.  Samsung and Motorola.  Samsung is doing well and Motorola is looking at an Android phone, a Pre of their own, to save what's left of their mobile device operation.

And speaking of Pre, this is going to be interesting.  Palm didn't give up a date.  I wouldn't even call "some time in the first half of 2009" a range.  Are you kidding me?  Your whole future rides this and you can tell your fans and investors when it'll come out?  Regardless, the Pre has me excited and I'm hoping for a T-Mobile version in the second half of 2009.  I'm not switching to Sprint just to use it.

Okay, you probably think I'm going right into Apple and the iPhone.  Not yet.  I'm wondering what Nokia is up to.  Lots of folks believe Apple will take the crown for smartphones (I still don't think of the iPhone as just a smartphone) but Nokia has been in this business for a long time.  They've seen what RIM did with Storm and how Android hasn't quite set the mobile world on fire.  Sight still on the iPhone.  N97 is pretty cool but much as with the rest of the industy, it looks more like a "me too" rather than anything revolutionary.  However, I'll take that over the G1 any day.

Now, Apple.  No idea or clue.  We'll see the iPod Touch refreshed in the fall just in time for what's likely to be another dismal Holidays Season.  More memory - definitely.  Other features are likely but with voice just added with 2nd gen iPod Touch, we might see more softwares that utilize it.  The headset could be upgraded to one with voice capability like the one they're selling now.

iPhone.  Money's on June/July time frame.  There's no hurry right now for Apple to rush anything out.  Personally, I'll settle for longer battery life with 3G use and more memory.  I kind of like the first iPhone look. These plastic white and black cases doesn't do it for me.  Expect Apple to make it thinner if they can.  I think most of the improvements will happen on the software front rather than hardware.  Love to see more Jetson features but given the battery life as it is, it's not gonna happen.  Rumors will carry us through boring days but don't get too excited, okay?

Now, netbooks, UMPC, and tablets.  I probably wouldn't have used one (given how poor I am) but I was majorly upset when Nokia ended their N810 WiMax edition.  Dude, what's up with that?  Ever heard of perseverance, Nokia?

We're likely going to see a new tablet from Nokia in 2009.  It really hasn't done much with it nor has Nokia promote the heck out of it either.  It stands to reason that if they spend even a quarter of the effort they spend on the handsets, the N820 or whatever they decide to number it will really be one heck of a device.  Add E-ink tech in there and it'll really blow the Kindle out of the water.

This goes the same for the iPhone platform.  Already e-reading is very popular on the iPhone and iPod Touch.  I spend a great portion of my time on these Apple devices reading.  Of course, I love to a bigger screen just for that.  I can really use a tablet based on the iPhone platform but that's wishful thinking.  We'll see Apple tablet rumors another three to four times in 2009 but I doubt we'll actually see the device.  Nokia and Archos can really take this opportunity to rule this segment of the market.

And guys, innovate.  Don't think just because Apple doesn't have a tablet means you can sit pretty.  They're perfecting another "insanely great" revolution here.

And how about Android on a netbook or UMPC?  Well, that's difficult to say.  I'm sure Google and Android partners has locked up some top engineers and won't let them see the light of day until they crank out something really cool.  Okay, forget the cool part.  Just Android on a netbook or tablet.

It'll be a busy year as device makers try to grab an increasing mobile market that is expanding beyond simple handsets and smartphones.

So, how about mobile gaming?  DSi for America in April.  That's so lame.

Briefly about Apple gaming.  I honestly don't know if anyone is afraid of the iPhone or iPod Touch in gaming but I'm sure Nintendo and Sony are looking at the multi-touch potential really hard.  And given the diminishing pricing on in the app store, I think tier one developers aren't crazy about bring over their franchise games to Apple's mobile platform.  There are a few.  Konami has a few coming and EA with Spores.  But we'll have to see how these folks make out with volume instead.  Love to see a great Madden or Tiger Woods though.

Back to DSi.  With it's older DS sibling, it's outselling PSP in Japan...and pretty much everywhere else.  Sony needs PSP2.  Again, Onxo will not traffic rumors but we've heard a lot of PSP2 chatter lately.  It means nothing without Sony confirming it.

PSP 3000 came out in August of 2008 (wiki), so if PSP2 comes out this summer or the fall, that would really be something to watch.  Take that, iPod Touch!

Okay, but the thing to watch for mobile gaming is Nintendo and Sony's app stores.  Those we'll see in 2009.

And speaking of app stores, just about every mobile platform from Windows Mobile to Nokia to RIM will have one this year.

Like I said, 2009 will be quite busy.  Mobile warriors, rejoice!

Link:  Mobile World Congress

Encroaching on Nintendo's Turf

Can Nintendo afford to upgrade every so often while mobile devices like smartphones have a shorter upgrade cycle?  The reason I posed this question is because a lot of smartphones and mobile devices are now making gaming one of its main features or soon will be.

Granted that Nintendo has sold millions and made gazillions from its handheld devices dating back to the original Game Boy, I wonder if Nintendo needs to upgrade their devices on at least an annual basis or even shorter cycle given the encroachment of mobile devices like the iPhone and iPod Touch.

More and more, it looks like Apple is serious about making more out of gaming than anything originally though.  I don't see folks getting torn up between Nintendo's DS offerings and iPod Touches when they consider a mobile gaming device yet.  Not for a while.

Nintendo will do just fine if they want to make a device that is gaming first and other functions are secondary.  Nintendo fanboys are just as loyal and likely have a larger following.  If the legendary gaming giant continues to innovate and not take them for granted, they'll follow where Nintendo leads.

And Apple is not the only people Nintendo has to worry about.   While I can't say I have any clue where Apple plans on taking the iPod Touch (I've got a few theories), others like Sony and Microsoft with Apple on the consumer mobile phone front and that means they'll have to offer compelling gaming as well.

Nintendo's problem with Sony is that Sony has a legacy and it is well known world-wide for its phones and Vaio laptops.  Sony can leverage its mobile gaming offerings in ways Nintendo can't.  PSP2 is a bit far off still (according to Yahoo).  But can we expect an iPod Touch-like device from Sony that merges PSP or even creating a "Vaio Touch" with PSP gaming?  Wouldn't you love seeing one of those?

Microsoft could be closer to releasing something to compete with the iPod Touch and iPhone than Sony.  Nintendo doesn't have to worry about Microsoft moving into mobile gaming the way it has to worry about Sony.  For the most part, I'm not sure Redmond knows what it really wants to do.  Zune phone is a given.  Zune gaming is likely but it has to decide if it'll be Zune gaming or Xbox mobile gaming.  Do it wrong and it'll confuse the heck of consumers.

Bottomline for Nintendo is if it can afford for the coming mobile gaming war to come to it or strike out at it's competitors now before it becomes an issue.

Source:  Yahoo News

Note:  I've largely excluded RIM, HP, Dell, and Nokia in all this.  It'll be interesting to see how they can fit into the mobile communication and gaming platform debate.

Quick Thought On Mobile Gaming - Those clouds over the horizon may mean war

Over at On Apple, we find out that Konami is about to back up Apple's assertion that the iPlatform (iPhone, iPod Touch) is a serious gaming platform with 4 new games.  All legacy titles. 

Now, I don't know if Nintendo or Sony is quaking in their boots (I don't think they wear boots though) about Apple.  I doubt it.  Not yet anyway.

However, there have been rumors about PSP2.  Engadget just sort of poured some cold water on that talk.  Still, we know it's gotta be coming.  We just don't know if it'll be PSP2 or PSPhone, or both.  Okay we do.  But I have to wonder just how cool it'll be if it is the PSPhone instead of just PSP2. 

And how about Nintendo?  With DSi, Nintendo added features to the system beyond just gaming.  It sure took its time doing it but I'm sure more non-gaming features are due out.  And we also have to wonder if Nintendo will becoming out with a DSphone or it's happy with DSw (widescreen - I made it up just now).

Who else is left?  Redmond.  Zunephone is coming.  It's a matter of time.  And you're saying it's gotta have gaming too.  We agree.  Microsoft will be a bit more interesting.  It's got Zune, Xbox, and Windows Mobile.  It'll have to figure out how to balance between competing with Apple on the entertainment as well as the enterprise front. 

I'll get into the dynamics of a gaming war between these four later but one thing is for sure, the entrenched players, Nintendo and Sony, have a lot going for them but Apple and, possibly, Microsoft aren't folks you just brush aside.

Source:  Engadget

Nintendo And Sony Should Start innovating

There are those wo believe that the iPhone will give the DS and PSP a run for their money.  I'm not sure that will happen.  It's possible but they are going after different markets.  Until games for the two gaming giants start showing up on the iPhone with regularity, the iPhone is still considered to be a nitch player in the casual gaming market.  That's just my opinion.

However, I will admit the danger for the gaming giants still exists that the iPhone or the iPod Touch may move into  a turf traditionally dominated by Nintendo since the orginal Gameboy.

Where is the danger coming from exactly?  From within Nintendo and Sony.  Nintendo's innovation heart is pumping pretty hard as is evident by its bestselling Wii and its unique controllers.  Sony is just going with power in PS3.  But on the handheld front, neither companies has done much on the last couple of years outside of comestic changes.

Granted the DSi has added a few features that are notable.  I'm specially impressed with the dual cameras.  Outside of that, the other features are simply catchups.  Am I right?

I'm sure we'll see something pretty cool with DS 2 and PSP 2.  Those models are coming.  Personally, iPhone gaming has awaken the mobile gaming hunger in me that I didn't know was there.  DSi is pretty cool but the iPhone is good enough to temper that hunger until DS 2.

For others sticking with their PSP or DS (I don't see many others going with DSi outside of Japan...plus no one will be getting it outside of Japan for a while), let's hope neither Nintendo or Sony won't be too long in coming out with the next generation of innovative mobile gaming less they don't mind people getting comfortable with iPhone and iPod Touch gaming.

And they better be very very innovative.  They should know that their fans are smart and will see through marketing fogs.

A couple of things I do want to see though.

• I want to see innovation in multi-player gaming.  
• Virtual worlds created just for mobile gamers.  
• Wireless accessibility to the Internet and social networks.  
• App stores that are easy to access like on the iPhone.  
• Multi-sensory input and that's where the camera can come into play.
  
• Take what the iPhone and iPod has done with multi-touch to another level.  
• Video-conferencing during game play.

What would you like Nintendo and Sony to do with their next gen mobile gaming systems?

Note:  What I don't want to see is DS2 or PSP2 added with lame simple telephony.  

Accessories for Travelers

TUAW has come up with a few items for travelers, or as I like to call it, mobile warriors.

It's a bit limited.  I spoke about the solar chargers and possibly solar backpacks.  I think there should be among the items that mobile users should carry with them at all times. Truly, if millions of us all over the world use solar or wind to charge our gadgets like iPhones, DS, Blackberries, and netbooks, I certain there could be a significant reduction in carbon footprint collectively.

Anyway, love to hear what you use and recommend.  We are currently compiling a list of mobile gadgets and accessories that will help mobile users through all kinds of situations.

Meanwhile, check out  TUAW's recommendations.  Also check out Camerahacker and Gearhack for tips and articles.  They've got a few on practical mobile articles.

Mobile Gaming: Nintendo May Not Be Worried About Industry Challenges

Everyone will saying gaming is about quality and not about quantity.  Well, some quantity too.  But this is something Nintendo knows and this is why Wii has done so well.  Make a quality game system and people will follow.  It's the same for the DS and back to the original NES.

Then Sony came along and tried to get into the mobile gaming secgment with the PSP and I think it has done well with a more powerful gaming  experience in terms of graphics and expandability.

Recently, a newer version of Nintendo's handheld, DSi, available initially only in Japan is an answer to lower ales and quite possibility to differentiate itself from PSP.

Onxo being a place for mobile rants and an American-centric focus can't help but bring in a little about the iPhone or the iPod Touch.  I'm sure eventually, RIM and Microsoft will be getting into the  mobile gaming arena.  Still, I don't think Nintendo is really too concerned about these new upstarts.

Nintendo has always been an innovator.  Dual screens.  Wii's controllers.  And they stick to their guns when they have to.  Cartridges.  Leaving out DVD playback function because it would get in the way of Nintendo's game experiences.

With the recent campaign by Apple to push the iPod Touch as a mobile gaming device, you have to wonder, I have, if Nintendo has anything to worry about?  And it is an effort by Apple to move into the hearts and minds of gamers that Apple is serious about games.

Apple does have the app store on its side with a couple thousands of games.  More games than the DS and PSP libraries combined as they like to spin things.  Trust me when I say they are not exaggerating and umber will most certainly grow.  Plus, the iPhone and the iPod Touch features pretty impressive hardware at that.

But in the end, I can't say that Nintendo has to worry about anyone else, including Apple for a while.  For gamers, it still comes down to quality.  And Nintendo with its smaller library of games than Apple or other mobile platforms,  including Windows Mobile, has depth and a traditional gaming experience that folks have come to know and expect from the gaming giant.

That's not to say the situation won't change.  Others will get better at producing quality games with depth and Nintendo will need to innovate to differentiate its platform from all the rest.

DSi  is okay but I can't wait for DS 2.  Personally, I'm betting on something really special from our Japanese gaming overlords.  What would you like to see from Nintendo's future handheld system?  Me, I'm looking for more social features like video chats and general mobile computing features like e-mails, texting, and browsing.

Note:  DSi's pricing is a bit disappointing.  But it is Nintendo, so I suppose it should command some premium.

Another note:  I would love to see Apple and Nintendo collaborate on a project.

Gaming: Why Developers Like iPhone And iPod Touch Gaming

In the past, folks have lamented about the fact that Apple gave lip-service to gaming but never really put forth the effort to make Macs true gaming capability.  Not so with their mobile devices.

With iPod growth (still growing) near saturation as some analysts would have us believe, adding gaming as a feature would potentially entice users to upgrade their iPods.  And there have been a slew of posts in the last few days about gaming on Apple's mobile platform.

Here is just a summary of why developers like the platform:

• Distribution - developers love the App Store.  Not just game developers but everyone.  You load your product and instantly gain access to tens of millions of customers worldwide.
• Costs - none associated insofar as disks, packaging, shipping, etc. that is typically associated with other mobile gaming platforms like DS and PSP.
• No need for distribution channels.  Once the game is finished, simply send it to Apple.
• Barrier to entry is on that you need a great fun game.
• iPhone SDK that makes the lives of developers easier.
• Powerful graphics than DS and PSP and with features like accelerometers.
• People will be carrying around an iPod because of its easy-to-use interface and social familiarity.  Having it be able to play games in a plus.  There is no need to carry a secondary device solely for gaming.

I have to say that gaming is not up to the standard of the DS and PSP.  I'm just being honest here.  The gaming depth just isn't quite there yet.  However, that is likely to change and I look forward to the day with the iPhone receives parity in terms of game releases as the DS and PSP.  

Links:

• Onxo believes iPhone gaming success will be app store.
• Eurogamer
• T3
• MacDailyNews
• WSJ 

iPhone Gaming: App Store Is The Secret Ingredient

When I first started playing games in the iPod nano, I thought, "okay, it could be sort of fun.  From time to time.  Waiting in line like I'm doing now".

But a lot has changed for Apple's gaming plan.  The realization that gaming could be a killer function for Apple's mobile platform was likely surprise and have been in development for a long time.  As with anything Apple does, the planning was very deliberate.

In the past, I've outlined how gaming on the iPhone was not ready.  By that, I mean to become a serious gaming platform to compete with Nintendo's DS and Sony's PSP.

Here are a couple of new features or efforts I think the iPod Touch would need to compete:

• Camera - Nintendo's new DSi with its double cameras open up new possibilities as far as caming goes.  Not only that, new ways to communicate with other gamers for online games.
• I'm not sure Apple will let buttons get onto the iPhone or the iPod.  I don't see it happening.  But someone needs to come up with a better scheme for interactive gaming with the speedometer and the touches.  Let's just say at times, it's not ideal in some gaming situations.
• Parity.  Games on the iPhone needs to have the same depth as its mobile competitors.  Think of 
• More first tier games.  I'm not talking casual games from THQ or EA.  I'm talking about iPhone ports of games that are also on the DS or PSP.  
• More sports games.  

I've also indicated a lot of big gaming studios are probably on the sidelines waiting to see how big of a gaming push will the iPhone/iPod Touch platform be.  If anything, the only thing that is likely hold them back is Apple's track record in the past on gaming.  I think Apple should, if they haven't already, create a team that is dedicated to helping developers with games.  

Already, I think we can conservatively say there are about twenty to twenty five million iPhone or iPod Touches in the market.   Perhaps even as high as forty million by the end of 2008.  Now is the time to bring Sims, Animal Crossing, more Sega, and Madden to the App Store.

170K DSi Sold Over Two Days

Macworld is reporting Nintendo sold 170K DSi over two days in Japan.  An impressive figure by other terms but I wonder if it should be higher.

However, Nintendo and retailers may be limited by units available and not necessarily lack of interest in the latest DS model.  I suppose Macworld is trying to say the DSi did not receive the kind of coverage the DS originally received.

However, Macworld has never been accused of biased I think.  But if they were comparing it to the iPhone 3G launch by Apple and Softbank in Japan, then they're right.  The press coverage is nowhere near what the iPhone launch received.

Nevertheless, 170K is impressive in a country already saturated.  I think most folks like myself are waiting for DS 2.  Sales overseas, like here in the US, is not scheduled until well into 2009.

Source:  Macworld

Note:  Go to 1Up for detailed comparison between DSi and previous models.

For daily wireless headlines important to mobile warriors, please visit Mobile Digerati.

Mobile Update for October 23, 2008

Nothing major took place in the mobile world as we know it.  No new product announcement.  We're still digesting G1's impact and reviewing it.  I'm providing daily use experience and impressions at On Android.  Today, I'm focusing on battery life and Amazon's MP3 store app.

Now, here's a topic to think about.  RCR Wireless has a post on what "open access" means.  It's very well written and must read to catch up something that impacts all mobile warriors.  Essentially, everyone - wireless providers, handset makers, developers, and you (me too) have our own definition of what it means.

It's what the government will eventually rule on.  I don't know about you but if the definition of "open" as the wireless providers has redefined it is applied to "open access", we're in a lot of trouble.

Mobile Device Upate:

• New DSi images and videos from Destructoid.
• Onxo's Take on Apple's Netbooks; UMPC offers their take on Apple's netbooks.
• Appleinsider has dirt on next generation of chips.  Focus is on Macbooks but last I hear, Intel still sells to other folks too.
  
• CNet reports Intel introduces new cooling tech for laptops.  Lots of tech talk but hey, if it works, bring it!
• MSI Wind will reach 700,000 this year.  I think I'm the 500,000th customer.
• Crunchgear says Android and iPhone stores the same...in terms of the types of apps people download.  Then there is not a lot of stuff to download to begin with.  I'm still waiting.
  
• As reported by ATT, Bold will be available for $300 on November 4th.
  
• Gizmodo talks about a special Firefox that uses multi-touch gestures on the Macbooks.  More here.  Must read.
• Mobile Royale on Opera running on PSP.
• Liliputing lists 31 netbooks for $399 or less.  If you use live.com search, you can get a lot them for less via 30% off on eBay.  Just thought you might want to know.
  
• Onxo looks into October mobile surprises.

Mobile Issues:

• Yahoo News reports eight Congressmen wants to lose reelection by asking FCC to delay white spaces vote.  Lobbyists cheer business as usual still working in Washington.
• Wi-Fi Planet updates on Philly's Wi-Fi plans.
• Onxo on what consumers are cutting first before they get to their mobile bills
• CNet blog wants Sony to wake up.  I agree with most of it.
• Mobile Ent reports India now has 500 million mobile users.  That's more the population of North America combined (450 million)
  
• Wireless Week on e-mail addictions.
• Onxo on MS Exec on iPhone figures.
• World of Apple on ATT's 2.4M new iPhone users.
• Onxo thinks Sprint needs Android.
• Onxo goes through mobile categories and see if we might have a happy Christmas.