Hundreds of Millions of Mobile VOIP by 2012

One hundred million? Two? Nope, about 300 million mobile warriors around the world will have mobile VOIP by 2013. That is the latest study released by In-Stat. A more precise number is 288 million, a shade under the size of the entire US population.

Of course, this is a far cry from the 6.6 billion Earthlings currently populating our small world. So we're talking about 4.5%.

I think that is just the beginning. As more 3G networks are build out or upgraded while 4th generation wireless networks become commercially available in 2011 and 2012, we should see an even faster adoption of mobile VOIP.

I like to go out on a limb now and say that we should see a number of half a billion by 2013 than what In-Stat conservatively came up with. China and the rest of Asia will emerge from this global funk we're in strong with a population flushed with cash with a great appetite for new mobile technologies.

And given the deal Skype recently made with Verizon, Google hungrily looking to expand its reach in the mobile market with Google Voice and Android, and Apple's own solution with the iPhone, we are looking a a strong spark to move mobile communication using VOIP. These are companies with a lot of influence and cash.

In-Stat all report 400 million devices will ship with Wi-Fi and traditional cell connection.

For startups and entrenched companies like Skype (I'm a Skype fan by the way), the VOIP market is ripe for the taking and allows for multiple players.

More at In-Stat.

VOIP - Future Now

It's a bold move to begin saying that VOIP is starting to make traditional voice obsolete but it's already started.  Skype's the 800-pound gorilla in the room now but I think like any young market, being the first or the biggest is a terrific position to be in but it's never over with giants like Microsoft and Google coming after you.

Plus, voice being a traditional market for a lot of telecoms, they're not going to go quietly and just cede the market to others.  These guys are fighting, possibly, for their survival in a fast changing mobile market.

Over the next year, we're likely to see major changes in how wireless providers change their business models to accommodate the demand for VOIP instead of traditional voice plans.  We're going to see deal cut in such a way that they'll get a piece of the revenue generated from such a move.

How about platforms like the iPhone and Android?  It's a little different here.  No one knows what Apple's going to do given how they like to share nothing.  For Google, I can't think of anyone who doesn't believe VOIP is a market they're going to take Google Voice into.  This is probably why Apple hasn't approved Google's official Voice app.  Of course, this tells us where Apple's going as well.

For Nokia, RIM, and Palm, they'll probably be making deals with the likes of Skype.  I think acquisitions are also possible.  So for those mobile warriors that work in VOIP startups, prepare to be rich or close to it.

Microsoft just unveiled their Windows Phone Series, aka Windows Mobile 7.  I'm sure we'll see more in the coming days but with its tight integration with Live services, I foresee VOIP features as a part of MSN Messenger.  And soon.

For now, as mobile users, we just have to wait and let the coming storm settle.  See who's still in the race.  And as confusing as it'll be, we're the ones who get to pick the winners.  And the market is big enough for multiple VOIP providers.

Google Voice Takes Center Stage With Verizon, ATT, and Apple

Google, Verizon, ATT, and Apple.  Mark today's date as the start of a turning point in the wireless war.  At the center, whether Googled figured it to be or no when they bought GrandCentral, is Google Voice.


Short history.  FCC started looking into device exclusive deals between handset makers and wireless providers such as the iPhone deal between Apple and ATT.  Then, Apple rejected Google Voice (GV) And things soured and the FCC decided to looking into why GV was rejected and issues about net neutrality.


Here is where things turn today for all mobile warriors, the wireless providers, handset makers, and the government.  Google and Verizon Wireless (VW) announced their partnership to bring Android devices to Verizon's "open network" where even Google Voice will be supported.


Trust me.  That's significant.  Google has to believe VW will stick to its word or else Google end up looking like a hypocrite. A while back, Google fought VW to make sure that there are open access provisions in the 700Mhz auction.  VW eventually won part of the auction.  But for a while, VW and Google were not on speaking terms.


Hence, today's joint announcement between bitter rivals was significant.  A lot of press and blogger attention was dedicated to this.


Then the second part of this wireless chronicle happened.  Washington Post posted that ATT maybe opening up its network to VOIP and Google Voice around the same time Google and VW's press conference was going on.  A couple of hours later, this was all over blogosphere.   One would figure ATT would be approached about this and a "no comment" would be issued.


Folks were excited.  Then it happened.  In a press release online, ATT confirmed "it has taken the steps necessary so that Apple can enable VoIP applications on iPhone to run on AT&T’s wireless network".  No mention of Google Voice and that is what folks are going to be wondering about.  Does this change anything between Apple and Google?


Meanwhile, Apple has indicated they will amend their developer agreements for the inclusion of VOIP apps while Skype welcomed the move.


Don't think this has anything to do with Google Voice?  GV might not be a VOIP app but the larger issue is whether we will have open wireless networks going forward.


Consider how appropriate this is, I'm watching the first two episodes of Season 9 of The X-Files titled "Nothing Important Happened Today".  The title was a reference to the diary of King George.  Before he went to bed, his entry for the day was "nothing important happened today".  That day was July 4, 1776.


Okay, maybe this isn't exactly like the declaration of independence by the American colonies but in the world of wireless, this significant all the same.

VOIP Maybe Mobile Market's Future

I've written a few posts on what I hope the future will look like once the wireless providers let go of the old ways (current ways) and embrace new models and open up greater access. For my part, instead of criticizing the gatekeepers for want to hold on to the past, I just assume they're looking for time to prepare themselves for the future. The inevitable.

VOIP is the future once the data plans become dominant. And according to Wireless Week, In-Stat believes this as well. In fact, they dug into something that I had not considered.

First of all, I'm a big fan of Skype and I use it for work and and at home. My hope is that I would be able to use any network and use Skype or another VOIP service instead of what mobile services we're using now which is metered access.

In-Stat believes this is possible. There are 3G operators and mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) that are free to pick and choose the business model they want to follow. And more over, people are starting to see voice as application to be used over the network, not an extension of their mobile plan.

When will this happen? That really depends on a couple of things in the marketplace. In-Stat believes by 2013, VOIP will being in more than $32 billion and nearly 300 million users. However, there is a lot of work to be done between now and then.

There needs to be a catalyst. Something in the marketplace has to happen to force the issue. Perhaps, it could be the 4G network going live. Maybe a carrier, like Sprint in the US, makes a bold move and moves everyone over to a data-only access with tiered plans much like what the telecoms and cable companies offer now with broadband service.

At the end of the day, we are marching slowly but surely in this direction.

More at Wireless Week.

More than Just 100Gbps, Korea Looks To Up Wireless Internet Too

Yesterday, we wrote about Korea's plan to increase broadband access to 1Gbps by 2012.  That was no the whole story.  Korea will be upgrading their wireless network to increase mobile Internet access from 1Mbps to 10Mbps.  Just like brandband access,  mobile access will increase ten times.

So, here are the highlights of what the Korean government, with the political will, is willing to do:

• $24.6 billion will be spent over the next 5 years for the IT upgrade.  This project will be undertaken by government and private concerns.
• 120,000 Jobs is estimated to be created.
  
• Mobile Internet access will increase to 10Mbps.
• Existing landlines will be automatically converted to VOIP.
• IPTV image clarity will increase 16 times.
• IPTV will allow ecommerce and educational applications.

Okay, so we better get cooking here in the US.  Heck, this goes for folks everywhere else in the world.  Mobility is the future.  IPTV, VOIP, or just mobile Internet, more and more folks are relying on the mobile devices to be more productive, stay in touch, and be untethered from their cubicles.

In the US, the House passed their version of stimulus pack while the Senate is expected to take up their own version of the stimulus this week.  We're not even close to getting this thing done.  There is money for telecom infrastructure but we won't know until the Senate pass their bill and reconcile their version with the House bill.  After House and Senate finalize the bill, it will go to the President for his signature.

Via:  Joon Gang Daily

Mobility - We Need To Make Video Chat A Habit

In my quest to see the feasibility of my MacWind and the amount of productivity I can get from it, I've been trying a lot of true mobility tasks.

Now, the Wind is a netbook.  Not a regular notebook.  It is a fact that I recognize in using it but I want to see how far I can push it despite running Leopard quite handily for day-to-day tasks.

So we've been trying some video conferencing on our netbooks.  As you may well know there are choices for video chats.

• IM services - AOL, Yahoo, and MSN have been around for a long time in offering services.
• Gtalk - just this week, two days ago in fact, you can now chat with your contacts right out of the browser in Gmail.
• Skype - You do know it does more than offer chats, IM, and Skypeout to regular landlines, right?
• Others - definite a lot more but it depends on your cup of tea in this matter.  But you get my idea.  Mobility has never been easier.  
• iChat - on the Mac, it is the default IM program and the video chat is very smooth.
• Oovoo - still in beta but has tons of 

On a Mac, iChat works best for me as more and more people I know start using Macs or install OS X on Intel -based systems.  But we tried something different last night.  I'll get into it in the next post.

But you see.  IM is fun.  Voice over the Internet is more fun.  But video chat is much more funner.  Not to mention productive if applied correctly.

This is the way things will go.  Even future generations of mobile devices like the iPhone, Blackberries, or Google's Android will sport video chat capabilities.  That's a no-brainer declaration.  So, make using video chat, whatever service is employed, simply makes a lot of sense.

Already, students are using it to share information and conduct study groups.  We've said this before at Onxo and we finally have the tools and bandwidth to make it happen.

I'll get into our experience on MeBeam next but I would love to hear stories of how regular mobile warriors use video chats.

Digital Convergence Very Fluid Today

Mobile convergence is a topic I've covered quite often here at Onxo.  Right now, the closest thing we have to anything like what we've talked about are netbooks with 3G connections.  And even then, it's not even close to what we envision it to be.  


Here's a rundown on what we expect:

• Internet
  
• GPS, Compass (like G1)
  
• Touch-screen, multi-touch, multi-input
  
• Ubiquitous network access (3G, WiMax, and definitely Wi-Fi)
  
• Music and Multimedia player
  
• Simple office-type document access
  
• Better battery-life - 24 hours minimum
  
• Access to a cloud system for more storage and processing power
  
• Still picture and video capture
  
• Video-chat along with the standard messaging systems (SMS, e-mail, IM, etc.)
• eWallet
• 6-10" screen

So far, there are no mobile device that does all that adequately.  In GigaOM's post, we've find out that there will be 200 million mobile devices that includes netbooks, UMPCs, and other mobile Internet devices.  However, the category of ultramobile devices is subject to debate as netbooks and XO's really are only a year old and UMPCs have not really lit the mobile market on fire.  Nokia's N810 comes close however.


But we do see a trend towards mobile functionalities in a handheld that allows mobile users to do a myriad of daily work without sacrificing efficiency.  We disagree with GigaOM that today's devices are being made to do too many things.  Like what is consider too many?  


It may be the situation of we'll know it when we see it.  Dell, HP, Microsoft, and Apple are working it I'm sure.  Dell and HP already have their netbooks while Microsoft provides the OS.  We've seen nothing from Apple but this mobile device with converged functionalities is right up their alley.  Maybe it's the fabled tablet (I think we're a couple of years from seeing anything like that from Apple).


But 200 million devices in the next five years where a bunch of mobile devices are lumped together is not as difficult to realize as one might thing.  And this is largely being aided by the weak global economy when a $300 device will do most of what a $600-700 laptop from Best Buy can do.


So, while we cannot define this category now, make no mistake we're converging in a set of devices that can and will do it all.  Right now, my money's on mobile platforms specifically designed from the ground up for it.


Related Onxo posts:

• Mobile Convergence 
• iPhone Craze
• $200 Tablet from Crunchgear
• Japanese Mobile Features on American Devices - When?