Xoom Sales Really That Bad?

Just about everyone is jumping in on Deutsche Bank's 100K Xoom sale estimate.  Albeit, it's not the millions of iPad 2s that Apple probably have sold through but I would have expected their numbers to be higher.  It's hard to believe the number is this low especially since it's the most hyped tablet of 2011.

And it's running freakin' Honeycomb!  

I think at the end of the day, when Motorola reports their numbers, my guess is that the actual figure will be higher.  Here's why.  Analysts from Wall Street tend to low-ball figures.  Conservative to a fall when they are not outright being idiots.

Having said that, even at 200K or 250K, it's lower than I would have hoped.  

There is good news and bad news in all of this.  First the good news.  The Xoom is the first of many dozens of tablets that will eventually be okay'ed by Google to run Android 3, Honeycomb.  The T-Mobile G-Slate is up next.  I think it'll do better than expected in terms of it being limited to just T-Mobile.

And certainly, I hope LG and T-Mobile are watching how the Xoom drama is being played out.  $799 is not a good number to position a tablet against the iPad and still have to sign up for data contracts.  

Another good news is that the Xoom was pushed out prematurely by Google and Motorola.  Future Android tablets will not suffer similar mistakes.  I'm sure Google is putting a lot of energy into polishing up Honeycomb and beefing up the number of tablet apps.  

Oh, and as a mobile warrior, I think $800 is a bit much to pay for a tablet.  I can get an iPad 2 for $630.  And I've bought a few on behalf of friends and family already.  No one has asked me to help get the Xoom.  Only one has heard about it and apparently, they heard about the price and the lack of apps.

So I think we could be looking at Google and friends market Honeycomb tablets at a much lower prices going forward.  I figure a 16GB Honeycomb tablet with 10" screen should charge only $399-$450 just to stay competitive with the iPad 2.  And regardless how you feel about the iPad 2, it's a great competitive pressure on the market.  And that's good for the consumers.

At the end of the day, we need both Apple and Google fighting it out - pushing mobile boundaries further out and competing.  We'll see HP, RIM, and Microsoft join the fight soon.  I'm sure they're watching what's going on with Android.  And that is good news.

Bad news?  Well, it's not that bad.  Hardware makers need to understand what it is about the tablet market that is so different from the PC market.  Apple's iPad 2 will continue to dominate in 2011.  So any meaningful competition will have to wait until 2012.  

More at Business Insider

Slow News Day At CNN or Mention Of iPhone Is Good For Clicks

CNN has a post dedicated to the iPhone 5 rumors on its frontpage.  Maybe I'm nearly the end of my work day and I'm tired so I'm not thinking clearly but I don't think there's anything wrong with that.  Just wanted to note it.  Maybe the mention of "iPhone 5" is a click-bait and I want in on it. 

Well, that's what I think why CNN put the post and link front and center.  Seriously.  That or it's really really slow news day and that the impending shutdown of the federal government isn't big enough of a draw (pushed to the left of the website) or that CNN sources doesn't think it'll happen.

Whatever the reason, what is not amiss is the fact that Apple's mobile strategy is now mainstream.  Technology, especially mobile tech, is no longer the domain of geekdom but that it belongs to society as a whole.  It's why there are long lines a month after the iPad 2 was launched, why it's sold out everywhere in the countries Apple has launched it, and why its updated tablet is the most sought after device on the Asian tech black market.  

Android may command the largest market share and RIM just barely continues to be ahead of the iPhone, but make not mistake that it is Apple that commands the mobile revenue and it is Apple's mobile vision that is and will dictate where mobile is headed.

More at CNN.

Virtual And Multi-Touch Keyboard - I Can Get Used To That

I fully expect for the keyboard to go away one day when someone develops an even better input apparatus to replace it.  Obviously, I'm not that someone so I have no idea what it is.  Can a multi-touch platform capable of displaying a virtual keyboard be it?  I know a lot of people will hate it but I think I can get used to the idea.

If you have an iPad or a smartphone like the Droid X or the iPhone that does not have physical keyboard, you're already using it.  Some people like it. Others don't.  I'm okay either way.  I'm faster on a regular keyboard but I grew up using a typewriter.  Lots of kids today will only know about multi-touch, like my nephews.

And Apple has been granted patents just to create a virtual keyboard of sort.  And one that could change patterns and shapes to the needs of the user.

One of the strange things, years after the various newer generation Star Trek shows went off the air, the glass displays that gave the officer control stayed the same.  If Star Trek the Next Generation was on the air today, each control panel or pad would work like today's tablets like the iPad that allows display of control based on the needs of the user.

That's what Apple is trying to achieve and something similar could well be the next Holy Grail to data input.  That would make mobile computing, especially tablets, another advantage over laptops and netbooks.

More at Patently Apple.

Green Campaign From Green or Eco Bloggers Needed To Advance Issue To Mainstream Public

Perhaps a new campaign to inform the public about green tech and auto should be created.  Most people start thinking smaller and fuel efficient vehicles only after the prices at the pump rises.  And with the premium price approaching $4.50 a gal at the gas station, I'm not sure even that will get Americans to start to "think different" about their transportation needs.

 

The major problem I see is the price of the hybrids or EV.  However, I'm not talking about the premium over gas-only cars.  I am referring to the prices of green vehicles as being not relevant at all.  Sure, some folks get the Prius because of the savings as the pump on a weekly basis but I'm sure the major of hybrid owners know that it will take many years before the gas savings equal the premium paid for the EV or hybrids.

 

And while period of time it takes for the owners to get savings back shortens with higher gas prices, these owners are not overtly concern about that. 

 

For a lot of these owners, it is about being green and reducing their environmental impact and other climate concerns.  Perhaps, green tech and eco bloggers should consider that as the focus rather than mention anything about costs and savings.

 

If not us who?  In this politically charged environment in Washington, there really is no one else left.  The car makers?  While there are those who sell greener vehicles, their main interests lie in maximizing profit and optimize returns for shareholders. Anything else that relates to green effort, national security, or global warming is entirely coincidental at best.

 

And yes, those of us who advocate green efforts are not stressing national security enough.  Even the US military is making a green push to optimizing its fighting forces and rely less on traditional fuel sources for its tanks, ships, and planes.  Those are the things we need to be talking about. 

 

Forget what Germany, China, or Japan are doing.  It is time that we focus on what we can do here and now   

WiFi in Hospitals

This is a subject that I'll have to look into but I wonder just how much of hospitals in the US utilizes WiFi in the waiting area and patient rooms.

I go to City of Hope from time to time to donate blood. And at times, I could have used some kind of Internet access with my free hand. I've got an iPod touch or G1 with me at all times.

They've got a guest account but it is difficult to gain access to. Good think I've got my iSpot.

I started thinking about this again because an uncle of mine is in the hospital and I am likely to say there overnight to keep him company. I've done this in the past for other relatives.

The first time was in the late 90s at the city of Hope. Definitely no wireless access. It was still a few years away from GRPS access on the Palm V with an external mobile modem.

I had to hijack the room's phone line to have dial-up access late at night when I was sure no one would call to see how my aunt was.

These days, things are much easier. I had an occasion a couple of years ago to stay overnight with another uncle. I had my G1 for mobile access and served as a tether for the MacBook.

I am sure hospitals have all their hands full with providing care for their patients but I think it's time to call it.

Wireless Internet access should be more ubiquitous now. It is important for both patients as well as caretakers. For patients who have longer term hospital stays, the Internet is often the only outlet to the world.

More people use the Internet, email, or text to stay in touch with each other.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPod touch

CEOs Sacked, Cloudy Forecast. Consolidation Coming?

Here are the new kids on the block: Samsung, Motorola, HTC. Maybe LG.

Here are the guys who don't get it. Let's call them the "old guys": Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Dell, HP...though HP gets a pass because its Palm acquisition has yet to play out. RIM probably belongs here too given the limitations they've put on Playbook and the weird marketing.

Wild Cards: Amazon And Barnes and Noble. Sony And Nintendo Should be with the Old Guys but I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt.

So far, the new kids are doing well. Dazzling the market with new Windows Phone 7 and Android gears. And just completed 3 months of 2011, we'll see more Android 3, Honeycomb, tablets hit the market and continue what the iPad did last year: putting a hurt on the laptop market and possibly finishing off the netbooks.

The old guys spew a lot of double talk about how their experience in enterprise will ultimately demonstrate that they new guys's tablets, including the iPad, will not have a chance. They came out with fuzzy math to show how the tablet is more expensive.

And yet, so far, vaporware.

Because it's a Friday afternoon, let me put this out there. Dell is going to fail. The rest of the old guys probably will struggle bit time as well as the mobile market shifts in terms of needs and what the new type of computing the tablets represent.

And like HP having to go out and buy Palm for the Web OS, I wonder if others will need to do the same to stay viable over the next decade.

Dell has to make an acquisition or two. As an old guy, Dell is still making loads of cash. And the PC market isn't just going to disappear overnight. And of the new guys, Motorola Mobile (MMI) is the weakest and smallest.

Can Dell come in and scoop them up and instantly gain strong street cred with Xoom and Droid? It has done that in the past with the gaming laptop maker, Alienware. On top of that, there's talk that Motorola is making their own OS to distance themselves from Android and Windows Phone 7.

Dell will probably see what their lineup will do against others. It will gain no traction and the blogs and investors will demand action. They'll probably have to go out buy what they need. All that matters is when Michael Dell pulls the trigger. I'm predicting it'll be Motorola because RIM will be too expensive. Plus, RIM's got a couple of erratic co-CEOs that might clash with Dell.

For the other old guys, 2011 will be exciting not because of their new products which are largely based on old thinking but what they will do once they fail. Aside of HP's Touchpad, the rest of the Android tablets will be hard to differentiate. And though some might hope that a Windows tablet OS might save them, that is probably a 2012 thing, more likely 2013 given Micrsoft's track record to promise but under deliver.

The ebook sellers and the gaming guys, Wildcard guys, present a very interest dynamics going forward. And they have an opportunity to play big roles or completely disappear into nothingness. I'm looking foward to speculate what could come of them.

Right now, the situations for the old guys are more dire. HP has to succeed with the Touchpad and the next Web OS smartphones. Dell will fail miserably and look for an answer through a buyout.

The same is probably true for the rest of the old guys. Their only opening is in Asia where many of these old guys can still count as their stronghold. However, that window will close quickly once Apple has its iPad 2 supply issues figured out (Steve Jobs has $60+ billion in the bank to do just that) and more Apple stores start opening up.

Acer Fires CEO - Not Just About iPad, It's About Mobile

Acer fired it's CEO due to weak outlook.  But that was just an excuse.  So why did this happen?  Other CEOs at other tech companies have had to faced weak returns but somehow hang on until brighter days ahead.  Apple folks would have you think it's the iPad gobbling up the netbook market.  

I'm an Apple fan and I can tell that while the iPad has had a large impact on the netbook and low-end laptop market, the iPad was only an episodic event in a greater shift in the mobile society.  

It's also about Android and the smartphone market.  It's also why HP and Dell came out on the attack against Apple in general about the tablet market.  

Mobile computing is changing with each and every single tablet release and OS update.  Consider where we were when Blackberries reigned in enterprise to the release of the iPhone in 2007 and the shift front lines in today's mobile war.  

Only because HP has Palm's Web OS that potentially gives it a small chance to succeed, otherwise, it would be in the same situation as Lenovo, Dell, Acer, and other PC makers that has no answer to the coming tablet onslaught.  And if you believe the idiot Dell exec who thinks the iPad is irrelevant, consider that if you add the iPad sales (yes, they are a computer just in a different form factor) to the Mac sales, it would put Apple over the top as the number PC maker in the world.

Let's take Dell's Andy Lark for what he said.  Yeah, Android has a great chance in beating Apple in enterprise someday.  Windows-based tablets will likely be received well.  However, that is only in take back some share that has been lost in the PC market to the iPad  And let's face it.  

Even if all that he predicted happens, there is no guarantee that Dell will itself will succeed.  The Android-based Streak is sitting on the shelf collecting dust while Samsung's Tab and Motorola's Xoom owns the Android tablet market.  And more pain will come for Dell once other traditional handset makers like HTC and LG has their tablets on the market.  

The main thing is that tech companies like Dell and Lenovo has to recognize the changes in what consumers want and need in the new mobile landscape.  And the iPad's adoption rate shows that those needs are bleeding into enterprise.  Until CEOs of these companies recognize that, coming out with "me,too" devices without understanding what they are for will do nothing to help their sales or keep their jobs.

More at CNBC.